《大行》大和一举升极兔评级至「买入」 上调目标价至 11 元

Daiwa's research report indicates that J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK) saw a year-on-year increase of 23% in total package volume in the third quarter, reaching 7.677 billion pieces. The performance in Southeast Asia was particularly outstanding, with a year-on-year growth of 78.7% to approximately 2 billion pieces, exceeding management and the bank's expectations. The bank believes that the Southeast Asian express delivery market has entered a new development stage due to intensified platform competition and market share consolidation. Considering J&T's market positioning and competitive costs, the company is expected to have an advantage in this new growth phase.

Additionally, in the third quarter, J&T's package volume in China and other new markets grew by 10.4% and 48% year-on-year, respectively. In the Chinese market, driven by industry efforts to counteract excessive competition, the average price improved quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, but the industry's package volume growth slowed, which also increased unit costs during the period. Therefore, management maintains a neutral to slightly optimistic outlook for the entire year's domestic business. Given J&T's continuous optimization of its domestic customer structure, the bank maintains a cautious view on the impact of counteracting excessive competition on profitability.

The bank raised its earnings per share forecast for J&T for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 11%, reflecting an upward adjustment in the Southeast Asian package volume growth forecast to 65%, while the forecast for package volume growth in China was downgraded to the mid-teens. The rating was upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" due to the defensive growth in Southeast Asia and new markets amid uncertainties in China-U.S. trade; the target price was raised from 10 HKD to 11 HKD