新股解读 | 剑桥科技冲刺 “A+H” 上市：营收波动上行，约 90% 收入来自海外

The Hong Kong stock market's "A+H" camp welcomes another AI concept stock.

On October 12, Shanghai Cambridge Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Cambridge Technology") moved closer to listing on the Hong Kong stock market by passing the listing hearing at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. On April 28, 2025, the company officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and received the overseas issuance filing notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 30.

The company is a global leader in providing critical infrastructure components to support the development of artificial intelligence, primarily generating revenue through the sale of broadband, wireless, and optical module technology products. The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in November 2017, and as of the close on October 17, its total market capitalization was 26.376 billion yuan.

According to Frost & Sullivan data, Cambridge Technology is one of the few companies that provide the aforementioned three types of technology products to global customers. In 2024, based on sales revenue, the company ranked fifth in the global integrated optical and wireless connectivity equipment industry, with a market share of 4.1%. What kind of development story will the company write in the Hong Kong stock market with this listing?

Annual revenue exceeds 3.6 billion yuan, with about 90% of revenue coming from overseas

Looking at the revenue structure, Cambridge Technology's sales revenue mainly comes from three major segments: optical connectivity solutions, broadband solutions, and wireless technology solutions.

Among them, Cambridge Technology's optical connectivity solutions enable efficient connections and seamless communication within and between computing clusters. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the company is one of the first in the global OWCD industry to develop 800G and 1.6T optical module products. As of the last practical date, its 800G optical module represents the world's most advanced mass-produced optical module product, while the 1.6T optical module is currently one of the leading research products in the industry.

The company's high-speed broadband solutions enable efficient transmission of massive data between computing clusters and users. As of December 31, 2024, Cambridge Technology's XGS PON products accounted for over 30% of the global 10GPON market by shipment volume. At the same time, it was also the first in the world to achieve mass production of 25GPON and to develop 50GPON. As of the last practical date, 25GPON is the fastest mass-produced product globally, while 50GPON is set to become the next generation mainstream product in the broadband field.

Cambridge Technology's wireless solutions enable high bandwidth, fast transmission speeds, and low network latency between computing clusters and end users. Specifically, the company is one of the first in the global OWCD industry to develop and mass-produce Wi-Fi 7 products. The company also collaborated with Google Fiber to launch the industry's first 20G uplink Wi-Fi 7 gateway for households and small business owners, providing network services exceeding 10Gb/s, thereby enhancing high-speed interconnectivity and offering extensive coverage. Currently, we are conducting preliminary research and development on the next generation mainstream product in the Wi-Fi field, Wi-Fi 8.

With strong core competitive advantages, Cambridge Technology's revenue and profits have generally maintained an upward trend.

According to the prospectus data, from 2022 to 2024, the company achieved revenues of 3.784 billion yuan, 3.085 billion yuan, and 3.65 billion yuan, with the latter two years experiencing a year-on-year decline of 18.5% and a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, respectively; The net profits were approximately 171 million yuan, 94.965 million yuan, and 167 million yuan, showing a fluctuating upward trend.

Among these, CIG's operating performance mainly exhibits two characteristics—namely, a high proportion of overseas revenue and a high concentration of major customers.

Specifically, from 2022 to 2024, the revenue from overseas markets accounted for 82.9%, 89.3%, and 92.6% of the company's total revenue, respectively. As of December 31, 2024, the company's customer base spans 52 countries and regions, including artificial intelligence data centers, telecommunications operators, ICT equipment providers, MSOs, and IoT solution providers.

In addition, most of CIG's major customers include information and communication technology manufacturers. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, the revenue generated by the company's top five customers was approximately 2.399 billion yuan, 2.123 billion yuan, and 2.738 billion yuan, accounting for 63.5%, 68.8%, and 74.9% of total revenue, respectively. The revenue from the company's largest customer accounted for 33.6%, 36.1%, and 41.8% of the company's total revenue, indicating a relatively high level.

From the above performance, it is not difficult to see that CIG has already established a certain strength and scale effect in the optical module field, but the high concentration of major customers and the large proportion of overseas revenue also indirectly reveal the risk factors for the company's performance fluctuations.

High Prosperity Golden Track VS Intense Competition "Red Sea Battlefield"

CIG's core track is in the optical communication modules (optical modules) and telecommunications access equipment field, with its business closely revolving around data communication and telecommunications network scenarios.

This track is the "highway" infrastructure of the digital economy, with enormous development potential, currently possessing three obvious driving factors.

First, the explosive demand for AI and computing power, which is the strongest driving force at present. Applications such as large language models, high-performance computing, AI training, and inference have unprecedented requirements for data transmission speeds within and between data centers. This directly drives the explosive growth in demand for high-speed optical modules (such as 800G, 1.6T). CIG's focus on data center optical module business is positioned at this favorable point.

Second, the global upgrade of data centers and the expansion of cloud services. The continuous growth of cloud computing, big data, streaming media, and other services requires data centers to evolve from 100G and 400G to 800G and above architectures. Each upgrade of data centers will bring about a large-scale replacement demand for optical modules, ensuring strong market continuity.

Third, the ongoing construction of 5G and the promotion of F5G (Fixed Network Fifth Generation). On the telecommunications side, the continuous deployment and deep coverage of 5G base stations require a large number of forward transmission, middle transmission, and return transmission optical modules. At the same time, the global upgrade of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) to gigabit and even ten-gigabit (F5G) also drives the demand for related telecommunications access equipment and home terminal products.

Driven by the above core driving forces, the track where CIG operates is also a high prosperity and high growth track.

According to Frost & Sullivan data, from 2020 to 2024, the global sales revenue of the OWCD industry has increased from 32.4 billion USD to 54.6 billion USD, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.9% Due to accelerated iteration and the continuous evolution of cutting-edge technologies, it is expected that by 2029, the global sales revenue of the OWCD industry will reach USD 111.8 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.4% starting from 2024.

Among these, CIG has two major development advantages that help the company continue to anchor the industry's development dividends.

On one hand, the company has successfully entered the supply chain systems of several top global internet cloud service providers and telecom equipment manufacturers (such as Google, Microsoft, Arista, etc.) through acquisitions and its own development. Gaining certification from these leading clients is itself a high barrier; once entered, the company can obtain stable orders and closely follow the industry's cutting-edge technology demands.

On the other hand, the company has laid out the research and production of high-speed optical modules such as 400G and 800G at an early stage. Especially in the 800G products, the company has achieved mass shipments, which has allowed it to seize market opportunities at the initial stage of the AI computing power demand explosion, gaining significant market attention.

However, it is important to note that the optical module industry is a "red ocean market," gathering domestic giants such as Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Guangxun Technology, as well as international competitors like Coherent and Cisco. Intense competition has led to frequent price wars, putting continuous downward pressure on product gross margins, while the company's profit margins have long remained at a low level, with profit margins of 4.5%, 3.1%, and 4.6% from 2022 to 2024.

In addition, since the industry is technology-driven, there is a high risk of technological iteration and significant R&D investment. Specifically, "one generation of products, one generation of technology" is a true reflection of this industry. To avoid being eliminated, the company must continuously invest heavily in the research and development of next-generation products (such as 1.6T, CPO co-packaged optics). If there is a misjudgment in the technological route or a delay in R&D progress, the company will quickly lose market competitiveness. From 2022 to 2024, the company's R&D to revenue ratios are 7.1%, 8.9%, and 8.8%, respectively.

In summary, CIG is situated in a high prosperity, high growth golden track, with its core advantages being successfully positioned in the supply chain of top clients and having mass production capabilities in high-speed products. This allows it to directly benefit from the industry dividends brought by AI computing power demand. However, the company is also in a fiercely competitive, fast-evolving technological environment with thin profit margins. Therefore, for CIG, there are immense development opportunities, but the challenges are equally severe