苹果股价今年首创新高！iPhone 17 热卖引爆换机潮

Apple Inc.'s stock price hit a historic high on Monday, the first since 2025, after Loop Capital upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Buy," becoming the latest institution optimistic about iPhone demand trends.

Apple's stock price rose over 3.9% on Monday, closing at $262.24, breaking the highest record since December last year, and surpassing Microsoft to become the second-largest company by market capitalization in the U.S., only behind NVIDIA.

In the first half of this year, Apple underperformed among S&P 500 constituents, with a cumulative decline of up to 31% in April. However, since then, Apple's stock price has rebounded over 50%, finally turning positive for the year by the end of September.

Strong Demand for New iPhone Drives Growth

Media reports indicate that the recent rise in stock prices is mainly driven by demand for the latest iPhone series exceeding expectations, sparking optimistic expectations for the long-awaited upgrade cycle. Investors are particularly concerned about whether consumers who purchased new iPhones during the pandemic but have not upgraded for years will return to Apple stores to buy new devices.

Last month, Apple launched the iPhone 17 series and a slimmer new iPhone Air. Wall Street has been closely monitoring these product launches to assess whether their market response can surpass previous years. A previous article from Wall Street Insight stated that the market response to the new iPhones exceeded expectations, with analysts predicting that Apple's smartphone revenue will recover to a 4% growth in the latest fiscal year, reaching $209.3 billion.

According to the latest analysis from research firm Counterpoint Research, the sales of the iPhone 17 series in the first 10 days after its launch in China and the U.S. were 14% higher than those of the iPhone 16 during the same period.

The firm noted that the base model iPhone 17 performed exceptionally well in the Chinese market, while the high-end model iPhone 17 Pro Max saw the strongest demand growth in the U.S. The subsidy policies introduced by U.S. wireless carriers to attract high-value users boosted Pro Max sales, while the base model iPhone 17, with its balance of price and performance, was more favored by ordinary consumers.

Counterpoint also pointed out that the new ultra-thin iPhone Air, although positioned for a smaller audience and less popular than the base model iPhone 17, has already surpassed the sales of the "Plus" model it replaced last year.

Analysts Are Bullish

Loop analyst Ananda Baruah wrote in a report upgrading Apple’s stock price:

“We are at the beginning of the long-awaited upgrade cycle for Apple.”

He believes this reflects "demand growth driven by product update cycles and new designs." Baruah also raised Apple's target price to $315, the highest expectation on Wall Street, indicating about a 20% upside potential compared to Monday's closing price Previously, investors had hoped that the launch of the iPhone 16 would bring a similar boost to the stock price, but its highly publicized AI features were either delayed or ultimately not launched, disappointing the market.

However, aside from Loop, an increasing number of institutions are turning bullish on Apple. Evercore ISI has included Apple in its "strategic outperform list," stating that iPhone demand data "indicates that this replacement wave may differ from the average levels seen in the past."

Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes believes that Apple is "finding its rhythm" and wrote, "Apple is working hard to silence its critics." He mentioned that trends in the Chinese market are positive, with "overall momentum for new models being strong," and future product launches may continue to act as catalysts for the stock price.

Some Analysts Remain Skeptical

However, some analysts are skeptical about whether the early enthusiasm for the iPhone 17 can support Apple's current valuation. Apple's current price-to-earnings ratio exceeds 32 times, significantly higher than the average of 22 times over the past decade, and also above the average level of the Nasdaq 100 index, making it the most expensive stock among the "seven giants" except for Tesla.

Additionally, Apple's popularity among analysts still lags behind other tech giants. Even with Loop's upgrade, the proportion of analysts recommending buying Apple among those tracked by Bloomberg is still less than 60%, only higher than Tesla among the "seven giants."

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee is one of the only four analysts with a "sell" or equivalent rating on Apple. He warned last weekend that,

"The sales momentum for the iPhone 17 is still cooling."

Lee had just downgraded Apple's rating to "underperform" earlier this month, stating that expectations for a "foldable iPhone" are "overrated," as the product's price may be too high and could "cannibalize" sales of the Pro Max model