中金：维持极兔速递-W 跑赢行业评级 目标价 11.1 港元

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) is expected to achieve profits of USD 319 million and USD 470 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37 and 25 for those years. The rating is maintained as outperforming the industry. Considering the upward shift in the sector's valuation center, the target price remains unchanged at HKD 11.1, corresponding to P/E ratios of 40 and 27 for 2025 and 2026, indicating a 9% upside potential from the current price. Recently, the company disclosed its 3Q25 operational data: Southeast Asia's business volume increased by 79% year-on-year to an average of 21.7 million pieces per day, China's business volume increased by 10% year-on-year to an average of 60.6 million pieces per day, and new market business volume increased by 48% year-on-year to an average of 1.1 million pieces per day. The firm believes that the company's business volume in Southeast Asia and new markets exceeded expectations, and is optimistic about the company's progress in expanding its international market share.

Southeast Asia: Volume may remain the largest market share as social e-commerce grows, reiterating that the optimization of the express delivery landscape in 2025 is expected to reach a turning point, with stable EBIT per ticket. The firm believes that the Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is still in a high growth phase. In terms of the overall e-commerce market, the firm believes that the trend of free shipping in Southeast Asian e-commerce express delivery is expected to further stimulate consumers' online shopping habits this year. Therefore, J&T, as the leading player in the express delivery industry, is expected to leverage its cost advantages from economies of scale to continue widening the gap in market share with other third-party logistics providers. According to the company's announcement, the market shares of the third-party logistics providers ranked fourth and fifth in 1H25 decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 5.5% and by 0.9 percentage points to 4.4%, respectively, while J&T's market share increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8% year-on-year. In terms of e-commerce share, social e-commerce platforms like TikTok are leading in tapping into incremental markets due to their inherent advantages in content e-commerce. Therefore, J&T, as a third-party logistics provider, is expected to capture a significant share of the incremental demand due to its independence. The firm reiterates that the express delivery landscape in Southeast Asia is expected to further optimize this year, with J&T's business volume potentially growing by over 50% year-on-year, and EBIT per ticket remaining stable with cost optimization.

New Markets: Industry development is still in the early stages, and the company's volume growth is expected to maintain high growth as e-commerce penetration increases. According to Mottainai Venture Capital, since the launch of TikTok Shop in Brazil in May, its GMV has grown 45 times from USD 1 million in May to USD 46.135 million in August. The firm believes that the Latin American e-commerce industry is still in its early stages, and J&T, as a third-party logistics supplier for Chinese outbound e-commerce platforms and the local Latin American e-commerce platform Mercado Libre, is expected to benefit from the increase in e-commerce penetration, with volume expected to maintain high growth.

China: Short to medium-term constraints due to price wars, with potential alleviation in the second half of the year following "anti-involution," observing progress in cost optimization.