《大行》花旗看好未来 6 至 12 个月铜价 目标明年次季铜价每吨 1.2 万美元

Citigroup's research report indicates that global manufacturing sentiment remains mixed, and cyclical demand growth continues to face pressure. The bank's tracking data shows that copper consumption growth in August this year remains weak, with only a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, falling short of the strong performance driven by the domestic solar industry in the first half of the year.

Considering the high base, the bank expects that consumption growth for the remainder of the year will remain moderate, but remains optimistic that copper prices will rise to USD 12,000 per ton in the second quarter of next year, as it anticipates stronger cyclical demand next year, along with supply constraints, currency depreciation risks, and arbitrage activities in the United States, all supporting copper prices.

Citigroup is optimistic about copper prices in the next 6 to 12 months. In the short term, the bank expects that the tensions in China-U.S. trade and the risk of stock market corrections will pose short-term pressure, but if copper prices fall, it will attract investors to buy at lower prices, thus maintaining the expectation of a target price of USD 11,000 per ton for copper prices in the next 3 months. However, the bank believes that the next wave of copper price trends will depend on whether China and the U.S. can meet in the next 1 to 2 weeks to ease the recently escalating trade tensions