《大行》汇研：中国互联网股估值尚未过高 腾讯阿里最受惠 AI 增长

HSBC Research published a report, expecting that the AI and gaming sectors will continue to lead, but as valuations rise, more factors such as earnings resilience will be considered. It believes that large-cap stocks have better risk-return profiles, favoring Tencent (00700.HK), Alibaba-W (09988.HK), NetEase (NTES.US), Kuaishou-W (01024.HK), and Pinduoduo (PDD.US), all rated as "Buy."

The report indicates that the Chinese internet industry has performed well this year, with the China Concept Internet Index ETF (KWEB.US) up 38% year-to-date. The one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio has expanded from 14 times to 21 times, and the valuation discount compared to large-cap U.S. internet stocks has narrowed. Nevertheless, large-cap Chinese internet stocks are trading at only 16 times earnings, compared to a 10-year average of 20 times, indicating that valuations are not yet excessive.

In terms of earnings resilience and certainty, the bank believes Tencent and Alibaba are best positioned to benefit from AI-related growth. Tencent's earnings in 2026 are more likely to have upside potential due to the recovery of profit shares from its associates and joint ventures. In the gaming sector, Tencent and NetEase are the bank's top picks. Revenue growth from the recovery of traditional gaming may drive market-underestimated profit surprises.

At the same time, after a recent pullback in Kuaishou's stock price, the bank believes the market has not fully reflected the potential upside of Kuaishou AI. Although the growth prospects for e-commerce companies may be pressured by competition in 2026, the risk-return profile is more favorable after poor stock performance. The bank believes that Pinduoduo, trading at a projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times, is already showing value