瑞银：长飞光纤光缆数据通信业务增长强劲 上调目标价至 44 港元
UBS raised the target price for YOFC to HKD 44, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, and expects an average annual growth of 11% in overall transmission business revenue from 2025 to 2028. The data communication business is expected to see a 57% increase in revenue in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 30-40% before 2028. Hollow fiber is seen as having long-term development potential, but its impact on profitability is limited in the short term
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, UBS has released a research report stating that it has raised the target price for YOFC (06869) by approximately 147%, from HKD 17.8 to HKD 44, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Driven by the stabilization of the telecommunications business and rapid growth in data communication, the bank forecasts that the group's overall transmission business revenue will achieve a compound annual growth rate of 11% from 2025 to 2028. Hollow core fiber (HCF) remains a market hotspot, attracting investor attention, but its short-term contribution to performance is limited.
The bank expects that the group's telecommunications transmission business revenue will hit a bottom in 2025, declining by 7% year-on-year, followed by a growth of 1.5% in 2026, with subsequent annual growth rates maintaining at 4-5%. On the supply side, suppliers are gradually shifting their capacity towards data communication and export orders, leading to continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics. Although demand pressures persist, preliminary signs of price recovery have been observed in the second half of 2025, which will stabilize the telecommunications business. Additionally, the group's overseas market is showing initial signs of recovery, providing a buffer for the telecommunications business.
The bank expects that this year, revenue from data communication transmission business will increase by 57%, with a compound annual growth rate of 30-40% maintained until 2028. The share of this business in total transmission revenue is expected to rise from less than 15% in 2024 to 36% in 2028. The gross profit margin for data communication optical cables exceeds 50%, which is expected to drive the overall transmission business gross profit margin of the group from 31.7% in 2024 to 36.5% in 2028.
UBS believes that current market sentiment has reflected the growth potential of YOFC's high-margin data communication business and initial optimistic expectations for hollow core fiber, with moderate upside potential in the future. It also believes that hollow core fiber has long-term development potential, with expectations that technology will gradually mature and contribute significant revenue in the next 2-3 years, serving as a strategic growth lever for the group, although its short-term impact on profitability remains limited
