高盛王立升：中國要刺激消費信心需符 3 個條件——少許通脹、企業盈利改善、居民工資持穩

Facing China's economic transformation and the downturn in the real estate market, the central government in recent years has been hoping to strengthen domestic demand's contribution to the economy, but the results have been consistently low. Goldman Sachs' Chinese economist Wang Lisheng stated that to boost consumer confidence, there needs to be a slight inflation in society, while also improving corporate profits and stabilizing residents' wages. Wang pointed out that the current excess savings of residents amount to about 3 trillion yuan, indicating that there is still a lot of room for the central government to boost consumption. Currently, measures such as trade-in programs, equipment upgrades, and tax cuts are being used to stimulate demand. However, the effectiveness of these stimulus measures is being indirectly constrained by the implementation of policies such as the trade-in of durable goods and the focus on deleveraging and debt risk resolution in 12 highly indebted provinces. The issuance of government bonds this year has not been as expected. Wang believes this is due to four reasons: 1) The Ministry of Finance issued an additional 1 trillion yuan at the end of last year, but the funds have been absorbed with low utilization rates, leading to a low intention to issue more bonds; 2) Projects require time for preparation; 3) Anti-corruption efforts have been intensified this year, limiting officials' willingness to implement infrastructure projects; 4) Local government projects have low returns, so the central government, in an environment focused on risk prevention, is pushing for stable growth