“滯脹” 的味道：美國 ISM 服務業 PMI 意外跌破 50“榮枯線”

The US services PMI unexpectedly slowed down, with a sharp drop in new orders and a simultaneous surge in prices, Barclays warns of emerging "stagflation" risks.

According to the news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Barclays' research report on June 4 shows that the US ISM services PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9 in May, dropping below the 50 expansion-contraction line for the first time in nearly a year. This data exhibits typical "stagflation" characteristics: both business activity and new orders plummeted, while the prices paid index soared to a 30-month high.

This combination of data releases complex signals for investors—economic growth is slowing, but inflationary pressures are intensifying, which may limit the Federal Reserve's policy space and increase market uncertainty.

"Stag" Alarm: Sharp Decline in Business Activity and New Orders

The US ISM services PMI fell by 1.7 percentage points to 49.9 in May, significantly lower than Barclays' expectation of 51.5 and the market consensus of 52.0, reflecting a clear weakening in overall service sector activity. This is the first time since June 2024 that the index has fallen below the 50 expansion-contraction line, marking the lowest level since the pandemic in 2020.

The weakness in the ISM services PMI is primarily reflected in the significant decline in business activity and new orders.

The business activity index dropped by 3.7 percentage points to 50.0, while the new orders index plummeted by 5.9 percentage points to 46.4, with both indicators reaching their lowest levels since the pandemic in 2020.

"Inflation" Stubbornness: Price Pressures Reach a 30-Month High

In stark contrast to the activity data, the prices paid index continued to climb, rising by 3.6 percentage points to 68.7, reaching the highest level since the post-pandemic supply chain crisis. Although still far below the peak of nearly 84 in March 2022, this reading has reached a new 30-month high.

The report specifically points out that several input costs, including aluminum and steel (before tariffs were raised from 25% to 50%), labor, electrical equipment, and lumber, are rising, with labor and electrical equipment supply being particularly tight.

Employment Performance Remains Acceptable

Barclays noted that despite the overall PMI softening, the employment sub-index reading of 50.7 still aligns with moderate growth in service sector employment and does not show signs of an impending softening in the job market. This provides some support for the non-farm payroll report set to be released on Friday.

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