中信建投：美聯儲降息背景下黃金 ETF 資金流向如何？

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report stating that last week, the Shanghai gold price reached a new high of 838.42 yuan/gram. As of September 19, the total scale of domestic commodity gold ETFs has reached 155.67 billion yuan, an increase of 120% compared to the end of last year. Since September, the funds in domestic gold ETFs have reversed the net outflow trend of August, with a total inflow of 4.774 billion yuan as of September 19. The gold holdings of six major global gold ETFs have increased by a total of 203.28 tons since 2025. The three factors of the Federal Reserve starting a rate-cutting cycle, global geopolitical uncertainty, and central banks continuing to purchase gold provide strong support for gold, highlighting its long-term allocation value.

How is the fund flow of gold ETFs under the background of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts?

Last week, the Shanghai gold price reached a new high of 838.42 yuan/gram, and another gold ETF with a scale of over 10 billion yuan was added, namely the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF. As of September 19, the scale of the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF reached 10.531 billion yuan, making it the fifth largest gold ETF in the domestic market. Meanwhile, the largest gold ETF in the domestic market, the Huaan Gold ETF, has also returned to a scale of 60 billion yuan, reaching 62.022 billion yuan. The scales of the Bosera Gold ETF, E Fund Gold ETF, and Cathay Gold ETF are also firmly above 10 billion yuan. From the perspective of the total scale of domestic commodity gold ETFs, it has now reached 155.67 billion yuan, an increase of 120% compared to the end of last year’s 70.887 billion yuan.

The significant increase in the scale of gold ETFs is closely related to performance. Since late August, COMEX gold has launched an offensive, with an increase of over 10% in the past month as of September 19, with the latest quote at 3,719.4 USD/ounce, and during the session, it once touched 3,734.8 USD/ounce, setting a new historical high. Affected by this, gold ETFs have risen one after another. As of September 19, several gold ETFs, including the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF and the Huaxia CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF, have seen their net asset values increase by over 15% in the past month.

The main reasons for gold reaching a new high last week are as follows:

1. Weak U.S. economic data and rate cut expectations: The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August, after adjustment, and the full-year non-farm employment for 2025 were both lower than expected. The unemployment rate in August reached its highest level since October 2021, and the number of initial jobless claims exceeded expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September was also below expectations, indicating a weak employment situation in the U.S. and the possibility of economic recession. At the same time, the U.S. PPI for August was significantly lower than expected, while the CPI and core CPI met expectations. The inflation situation led to the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice more before the end of 2025. In this context, the financial attributes of gold make it more attractive in the early and mid-stages of the rate-cutting cycle. Investors expect currency depreciation and will increase their investment in gold to preserve and increase asset value, driving up gold prices. For example, SPDR's holdings have rapidly rebounded since June, with European and American investors flowing funds into the gold market under the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, becoming the main driving force behind the recent rise in gold prices 2. Stagflation Risk and Hedging Demand: The subsequent inflation in the United States may exhibit strong resilience due to tariffs and interest rate cuts, while major European economies also face deteriorating fiscal conditions and stagflation risks. In a stagflation environment, gold has advantages over other major asset classes and can better serve its hedging and value-preserving functions. Investors will increase their allocation to gold to avoid economic instability and asset depreciation risks, leading to increased demand for gold and driving prices up.

3. De-dollarization Trend and Central Bank Accumulation: The erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence and rising deficit rates undermine the credibility of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, exacerbating the global trend of "de-dollarization." The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month, and the gold reserves of central banks in emerging markets such as China and India are significantly lower than the global average. Market participants are motivated to continue increasing their gold asset allocations. This increase in demand provides strong support for gold prices, pushing the price center of gold and gold stocks upward.

4. Performance of Gold Stocks: Recently, the semi-annual reports of gold stocks showed significant profit growth that exceeded expectations, with some large gold mining companies experiencing notable increases in net profit attributable to shareholders. The high growth in performance is due to the simultaneous rise in gold prices and production, which not only dilutes the PE valuation of mining companies but also creates room for valuation recovery for gold stocks. At the same time, the market value/resource ratio of leading companies is approaching the reset cost line, attracting more industrial capital as new buying power. The strong performance of gold stocks has attracted more funds to focus on the gold market, driving up gold prices.

With the strong performance of gold ETFs, a large amount of capital has rushed in. From the perspective of capital flow, since September, the funds in gold ETFs have reversed the net outflow trend of August, maintaining a high level of investment enthusiasm. As of September 19, the net subscription amount of gold ETFs in September has approached 3.7 billion shares. Among them, the net subscription amount of the Yongying CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF is the largest, reaching 2.548 billion shares, while the net subscription amount of the Huaxia CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF is 794 million shares, the Hua'an Gold ETF is 317 million shares, and the Guotai CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF is nearly 200 million shares.

The capital flow of domestic gold ETFs in 2025 shows a complex trend, with both inflows and outflows overall, and performance varying in different time periods, mainly influenced by various factors such as market environment, economic data, and policy expectations. From the beginning of the year to April, there was a significant inflow of funds: from the beginning of the year to April, gold ETF funds showed a clear inflow trend. For example, data from April shows large inflow amounts on multiple days, such as April 21-22, with inflows of 4.874 billion yuan and 6.353 billion yuan, respectively. The reason for the inflow during this period was the uncertainty regarding the global economic situation triggered by Trump's tariff policies.

From May to August, capital flows fluctuated dramatically. From May 14-16, there were significant outflows of funds, amounting to -1.729 billion yuan, -741 million yuan, and -3.208 billion yuan, respectively. The alternating good and bad economic data, along with the uncertainty of macro policy adjustments, caused fluctuations in investor sentiment, leading to frequent adjustments in investments in gold ETFs and resulting in frequent capital inflows and outflows. In September, funds initially flowed in and then out, with a total inflow of 4.774 billion yuan as of September 19. In the early hours of September 18, the Federal Reserve held a monetary policy meeting and announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0%-4.25% With the interest rate cut implemented, the price of gold in Shanghai fell from 838.42 yuan/gram to 825.63 yuan/gram within the week, and on September 19, there was a net outflow of 762 million yuan from domestic gold ETFs in a single day.

From the perspective of global gold ETF holdings, since 2025, the gold holdings of six major global gold ETFs (SPDR, iShares, GOLD, PHAU, SGBS, and GBS) have increased by a total of 203.28 tons, with an increase of 31.63 tons last week. Notably, the holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs grew significantly, increasing by 19.76 tons and 11.61 tons, respectively. After the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut on September 18, the SPDR gold ETF saw an increase of 18.9 tons on September 19. This may be a result of the market continuously digesting the impacts of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and other macroeconomic policies, with investors remaining optimistic about the long-term trend of gold and continuously increasing their allocation to gold ETFs. Additionally, this may also be driven by uncertainties in the global economic situation and geopolitical risks, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets.

The long-term allocation value of gold remains significant, with short-term and long-term trends influenced by different factors showing divergence. In the short term, gold prices may experience fluctuations due to profit-taking by some investors; in the long term, the three pillars of the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks continuing to purchase gold provide strong support for gold, highlighting its long-term allocation value. Future positive factors include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut weakening the dollar, enhancing gold's attractiveness, and driving funds into gold ETFs; global economic and geopolitical risks will maintain demand for gold as a safe haven, supporting gold prices; and global central bank purchases of gold will also support gold prices. However, if global economic data exceeds expectations, it may trigger a shift of funds from gold to higher-risk assets, leading to a decrease in gold ETF holdings and a pullback in gold prices