《大行》大摩降蒙牛盈利預測 目標價微降至 18.5 元

Morgan Stanley published a report stating that it has updated its forecast for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK), lowering the earnings per share forecast for 2025 by 13%, and reducing the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 7% to 8%, to reflect the continued weakness in liquid milk demand and loss of market share. The sales forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 7%, along with a low base for 2026 to 2027. Additionally, the bank has raised its operating expense ratio forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points, as the company needs to invest in channel development to drive sales recovery; it also expects the losses of its subsidiary Modern Dairy to widen in 2025 due to the slower-than-expected rebound in raw milk prices.

The bank expects sales to decline by 7% in 2025, but to grow by 3.6% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. It anticipates that the operating profit margin will remain stable in 2025 and increase by 23 and 46 basis points in 2026 and 2027, respectively; it also expects recurring net profit to decline by 9% in 2025, increase by 28% in 2026, and grow by 11% in 2027.

Based on the above adjustments, the target price has been lowered from 20 yuan to 18.5 yuan, maintaining an "overweight" rating. (ss/)