國聯民生：維持藥明合聯 “買入” 評級 上調公司盈利預測

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng has released a research report stating that WuXi XDC (02268), as a global market leader in the ADC CXO industry, is expected to consolidate its leading position in the industry due to its advanced technological capabilities and product delivery quality against the backdrop of rapid overall industry expansion. Considering the company's strong growth in the ADC CXO sector, with a year-on-year rapid growth in orders on hand in the first half of 2025 and orderly release of reserved capacity, the firm has raised its profit forecast for the company. The firm expects the company's operating revenue for 2025-2027 to be 5.99 billion, 8.24 billion, and 10.51 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of +47.7%, +37.7%, and +27.5%, respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.51 billion, 2.06 billion, and 2.67 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.5%, 36.2%, and 29.4%, respectively. EPS is expected to be 1.23, 1.68, and 2.17 yuan. The rating is maintained at "Buy."

Guolian Minsheng's main points are as follows:

Event

In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.7 billion yuan (year-on-year +62.2%), gross profit of 980 million yuan (year-on-year +82.2%), adjusted net profit (excluding interest and expenses) of 730 million yuan (year-on-year +69.6%), adjusted net profit (including interest income and expenses) of 800 million yuan (year-on-year +50.1%), and net profit of 750 million yuan (year-on-year +52.7%).

Abundant orders empower steady growth in performance, with outstanding α capability in a high-growth track

As of the first half of 2025, the company's total unfulfilled orders reached 1.33 billion USD (year-on-year +57.9%), with new contract amounts increasing by 48.4% year-on-year (the highest growth rate in North America, further highlighting the company's industry competitiveness in the context of global trade policy fluctuations). According to the performance report, the global ADC market size is expected to reach 13.2 billion USD in 2024 (with a compound annual growth rate of 34.0% from 2020 to 2024), and it is anticipated to rapidly reach 66.2 billion USD by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate of 30.8% (with an outsourcing rate of about 60% from 2024 to 2030E). In the rapidly growing emerging ADC outsourcing service sector, the company's market share has risen from 9.9% in 2022 to 22.2% in the first half of 2025, continuously solidifying its leading position in the industry (the company collaborates with 13 out of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies).

Project funnel model continues to expand, capital expenditure empowerment expected to break existing growth heights

Under the "Empower-Follow-Win Molecule" strategy, the company signed 37 new iCMC projects in the first half of 2025 (including 13 winning molecule projects) and added 3 PPQ projects, maintaining a steady expansion trend in the comprehensive cooperation project funnel model. To meet the growing outsourcing demands of global clients, the company expects capital expenditure of 1.56 billion yuan in 2025 (approximately 900 million yuan invested in the Singapore base and approximately 450 million yuan invested in the Wuxi base), and total capital expenditure is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan by 2029, with new production capacity including coupling raw liquids, coupling formulations, and payload linkers. The company has currently initiated expansion work at its Wuxi and Shanghai bases, as well as the design planning for the new base in Jiangyin Risk Warning: Intensified industry competition, market demand lower than expected, geopolitical risks, and capacity expansion not meeting expectations