瑞銀：升周大福目標價至 18.35 港元 評級 “買入”
UBS raised the target price for CHOW TAI FOOK to HKD 18.35, with a rating of "Buy." Management stated that sales growth during the Golden Week holiday slightly outperformed industry data, and consumer sentiment has improved. Sales in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with domestic growth of 3% and international growth of 11.4%. Due to rising gold prices, gross margin and operating profit margin in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, but gold loan losses offset some of the benefits. UBS raised its earnings before interest and taxes per share forecast for fiscal year 2026 by 8%
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, UBS has released a research report stating that the target price for Chow Tai Fook (01929) has been estimated using the discounted cash flow method, and the target price has been raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18.35, implying forecasted price-to-earnings ratios of 24 times and 18 times for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively; the rating is "Buy."
UBS indicated that Chow Tai Fook's sales in the second fiscal quarter of 2026 (July to September) increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with domestic and international growth rates of 3% and 11.4%, respectively, in line with the bank's expectations. Same-store sales growth rates in mainland retail stores, mainland franchised stores, and other market outlets increased by 7.6%, 8.6%, and 6.2%, respectively. Management commented that during the Golden Week holiday, sales growth slightly outperformed industry data, and an improvement in consumer sentiment was observed.
UBS stated that Chow Tai Fook's management noted that due to the upward trend in gold prices, gross margin and operating profit margin in the first half of the year were better than previously expected, but this benefit was offset by more gold loan losses. The company will reassess its full-year performance guidance when it announces complete results for the first half of the fiscal year in November.
UBS has raised Chow Tai Fook's earnings before interest and taxes per share forecast for the fiscal year 2026 by 8%, considering the improvement in gross margin driven by pricing products and a lower share count, and has raised the earnings per share forecast for fiscal years 2027 to 2028 by 1% to 2%
