羣益證券：金風科技業績有望持續修復 目標價 17 港元

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Yuanta Securities released a research report stating that Goldwind (02208) products cover onshore, offshore, and overseas wind power markets. Currently, the wind power market is performing well, and the company, as a leading enterprise, has achieved significant growth in both domestic and international orders. With new wind turbine order prices stabilizing and rising, along with an increased proportion of high-margin overseas business, the firm believes the company's performance is expected to continue to recover. The firm has raised its net profit forecasts for the company to 3.46 billion, 4.51 billion, and 5.81 billion yuan for 2025/2026/2027, representing year-on-year increases of +86%/+30%/+29%, with EPS of 0.82/1.07/1.38 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE ratios for H-shares are 14/11/8.5 times, and a "Buy" recommendation is given with a target price of HKD 17.

Key points from Yuanta Securities are as follows:

The company achieved revenue of 48.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of +34%, recording a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +44.2% (net profit after deduction of non-recurring items was 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +36.2%), equivalent to an EPS of 0.6 yuan, which meets expectations.

Q3 company performance saw significant growth, with improved gross margin quarter-on-quarter

The company achieved revenue of 48.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of +34%, recording a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +44.2% (net profit after deduction of non-recurring items was 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +36.2%), equivalent to an EPS of 0.6 yuan, which meets expectations. Looking at the quarters, the company achieved revenue of 19.61 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of +25.4%, with a net profit of 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +170.6% (net profit after deduction of non-recurring items was 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +160.5%), equivalent to an EPS of 0.25 yuan. The company's Q3 wind turbine sales saw significant growth, achieving external sales capacity of 7,809 MW, a year-on-year increase of 71%. From January to September, the company cumulatively sold 18,449.7 MW of wind turbines, a year-on-year increase of 91%. As of the end of September, the company had orders on hand of 49.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. Among these, overseas orders accounted for 7.16 GW, or 14.3%; orders for turbines of 6 MW and above accounted for 83%.

The company's gross margin in Q3 was 13%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points from Q2, contributed by stabilized wind turbine prices and an increased proportion of high-margin overseas products. The current bidding prices for wind turbines are stabilizing and rising, with the average public bidding price in September reaching 1,610 yuan/kW, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In terms of expenses, benefiting from economies of scale and cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the company's three expense ratios decreased by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, with the financial expense ratio decreasing by 1.2 percentage points; the management expense ratio decreasing by 0.8 percentage points, and the sales expense ratio decreasing by 1.4 percentage points.

The wind power industry is expected to maintain good prosperity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period

The wind power industry is currently performing well, with newly installed wind power capacity in China from January to September reaching 61.09 GW, a year-on-year increase of 56%. The firm expects the total installed capacity for wind power this year to reach around 110 GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%. In the first three quarters of this year, the wind power bidding volume reached 102 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. Although the bidding pace for wind power has slowed, the firm has observed that the IRR for newly added wind power projects is still within a reasonable range (above 8%) after the gradual implementation of competitive electricity prices in various provinces. It is expected that the bidding volume in Q4 will rebound significantly The bank expects the installed capacity of wind power to maintain double-digit growth in 2026.

On October 20, the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference released the "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0," proposing that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the annual newly installed capacity should not be less than 120 GW, with offshore wind power not less than 15 GW; by 2030, the cumulative installed capacity will reach 1300 GW. The bank expects that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual installed capacity of wind power will double compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period, indicating promising growth for the wind power industry.

Profit Expectations

The bank expects the company to achieve net profits of 3.46 billion, 4.51 billion, and 5.81 billion yuan in 2025/2026/2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth of +86%/+30%/+29%. The EPS is expected to be 0.82, 1.07, and 1.38 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios for H-shares of 14, 11, and 8.5 times, recommending a "buy" suggestion