In the second half of the year, US stocks are considered "mediocre," while Chinese concept stocks are in a state of "waiting."
Hello everyone, the following is the core information of this week's portfolio strategy summarized by Dolphin Jun this week: 1) The progress of inflation relief in the United States is blocked by the counterattack of oil prices; and the prosperity of August zero is essentially because of the counterattack of oil price inflation; and behind the rare fiscal surplus is still the big government that spends a lot of money. The release of the three-point data on prices, consumption and fiscal data together paints a clear picture: behind this round of economic resilience in the United States is actually the use of finance to hedge the currency and allow residents to spend money without worry. However, in the second half of the year, such a policy, in the context of TGA account reconstruction, there is still much room for movement, which is debatable. 2) After August prices and social security data showed signs of bottoming out, social zero, industrial value added and other data also showed signs of repair. Overlay downgrade and other operations, these are good policies. However, against the backdrop of a strong U.S. dollar, further monetary easing has led to an increase in the U. S.-China interest rate inversion and a weak RMB exchange rate, putting further pressure on overseas Chinese assets, resulting in an already low valuation of China-US assets not coming out of the independent market in the face of improved domestic economic fundamentals. But the overall cost-effective comparison, and in the domestic economic fundamentals marginal improvement, the relatively low assets of the case, Dolphin Jun believes that the general although not necessarily immediately open up the upward space, but further decline may be more of an opportunity. The following is the detailed content: * * 1. the United States to release inflation "slow lying" * * Last week, the United States had two more important August economic data, one is social zero, the other is prices; These two related to the level of consumption and consumer prices actually reflect the problem is basically the same. Let's look at the price level in August first: CPI surged to 0.63 percent month-on-month due to a sharp rise in gasoline prices in energy. However, the core CPI after removing gasoline and food rose 0.28 percent, up from less than 0.2 percent in the previous month.! Looking closely at the items of recovery, the prices of new cars in commodities rose slightly, while the strike of car workers in September may still have upward pressure on the prices of new cars. The biggest change in service is that airline fares in transportation increased significantly in August, which may be partly related to strong travel demand and rising energy prices in August. And Dolphin Jun dismantled out to observe several small sub-items related to labor costs (the vast majority of the main cost elements are manpower), a few months of observation down, basically the main, occasionally down, but sure is almost no inflation trend. For example, the garbage cleaning service in the cost of living is basically the same, with a month-on-month growth of about 0.5 percent.! As for the new Federal Reserve interest rate resolution to come this week, judging from the current trend of inflation vs interest rate, the current interest rate level has been fully able to cover the current inflation level. The high employment behind the high inflation is more related to the insufficient labor supply under high consumption, while high consumption is more related to fiscal policy. **** On these two things, from the point of view of the Fed maintaining policy neutrality, there is basically nothing it can do, all it can do is keep high interest rates to hedge the impact of the deficit. * *! High 2. deficit" unabated " Previously Dolphin Jun said that behind the strong economy in the first half of the year, there is also credit for the fiscal deficit. So Dolphin has come to take a closer look at where the progress of the fiscal deficit has gone in August. Judging from the latest figures, the biggest change in fiscal revenue and expenditure from January to August is that education, training, employment and social services, a large expenditure item, suddenly changed from a net increase of $79 billion in January to a net decrease of $273 billion in expenditure. The mystery behind this is that after Biden's student loan relief was rejected by the court, the nearly $400 billion previously accrued fees have now been reversed, with a one-time reversal of $330 billion. This accounting adjustment directly 220 billion the original deficit into a one-time book surplus of $89 billion. And the original 220 billion monthly deficit level was almost indistinguishable from the previous months.! Moreover, this technique has little influence on its own water. And as of September 6, the U.S. Treasury issued a bond operation, the TGA account reconstruction process was slow. The Ministry of Finance's goal at the end of September is to flush the treasury to 650 billion. It has been 20 days since September and is less than US $500 billion.! * * Behind the 3.'s high consumption is the rebound in oil prices * * In August, the U.S. social zero seemed to explode, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.56, but in fact it was mainly due to the retail sales of gas stations (accounting for about 8% of the social zero) increasing by more than 5% month-on-month. Behind the strong social zero this month is the squeeze of rising oil prices on other types of consumption. In fact, the overall social zero is still a strong must-have, high-interest-related optional consumption is relatively weak. If you remove cars, gas stations and building materials in high-interest sensitive industries, as well as food and beverage in the nature of social services, just look at Dolphin Jun's core retail sales growth has actually slowed to 0.1 percent month-on-month, significantly lower than 0.7 percent last month.! One change to focus on for the next consumption trend is that the two-year student loan exemption enforced under the Biden epidemic has not been available since the new fiscal year in October? In addition to affecting the short-term consumption behavior of some lenders, whether it will also have an impact on later consumption expectations. This matter also takes into account the current historical low savings rate of U.S. residents, changes in consumption behavior, and changes in the savings rate due to changes in expectations and security. Just as important. **In fact (one-three) of the three-point depiction, we can roughly see that behind this round of economic resilience in the United States is actually monetary tightening, fiscal to rush, residents spending state * *. And from the point of view of the policy starting point, this repayment of the loan many years later, most people have the ability to repay the case, to do the rest of the loan government exemption this policy in addition to the election time to canvass, what is the practical significance? And this thing also shows that, at the time of the general election, don't expect too much restraint on the U.S. government budget. 4. the domestic economic bottom to pass, why assets are still in the doldrums? And on the other hand, looking at the domestic data, most of the current economic data in August, whether it is previously issued CPI prices, social financing, or last week's social zero (Dolphin Jun comments please go back to "the eve of the dawn, the domestic economic bottom has passed?", industrial output index, etc. are pointing to the economy bottoming out. At the same time, considering that most of the overseas assets are basically hovering around the floor price, but these assets do not show a very strong anti-decline characteristics, and the basic decline of U.S. stocks. And at the core here, Dolphin Jun's judgment is mainly still a strong dollar cycle, the U.S. interest rate hike is not expected to improve the case, but also in the case of domestic downgrades and other monetary easing policy expectations, the spread upside down, foreign capital outflow is more serious.! ! Where did the 5. market trade go? In Dolphin Jun's view, to the second half of this year, the overall U.S. stocks have been partial to the state of the market; Gaola's valuation behind the corresponding monetary and fiscal policy in the second half of the year to move the space is much smaller than the first half, and the residents of the excess savings are also less and less. The issuance of Treasuries under the reconstruction of the high deficit rate + TGA account will continue to support the dollar and U.S. bond rates, while the high deficit itself will fuel inflation, leading to the need for the Fed to keep raising interest rates and staying at high interest rates, which is tantamount to financing the deficit with high interest funds. But this pro-cyclical high deficit play, counter-cyclical, how much room is there for the deficit to increase? It is a question worth thinking about how long this game can last. Dolphin Jun overall tends to believe that the current U.S. stock price is still insufficient. China's assets are cost-effective enough, but the economic fundamentals need to be further stabilized on the basis of August, and there can be further positive signals.! * * 6. Portfolio Income * * In the week of September 18, Alpha Dolphin's virtual portfolio did not adjust its positions, and its income went down by 0.4, outperforming the entire reference index currently observed by Dolphin King, such as MSCI China -0.1%, S & P 500-0.2%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300-0.8%, Hang Seng Technology -0.3%, but only by a very small margin.! Since the portfolio began testing to the end of last week, the absolute return of the portfolio was 24%, and the excess return compared to MSCI China was 43%. From the perspective of net asset value, Dolphin Jun's initial virtual asset is 0.1 billion US dollars, currently 0.126 billion US dollars.! 7. individual stock profit and loss contribution Global assets remained in a general down state last week, but the relatively high weight of Dolphin Jun's position among the Huaju and Xiaopeng are bucking the market's upward state and performing relatively well. The position weight of Dolphin Jun, which has fallen more, is not large. ! For the companies with the highest rise and fall, Dolphin King sorted out the reasons as follows:! 8. Portfolio Asset Distribution This week's portfolio has no positions, with 22 stocks allocated, of which 3 are rated as standard, 19 are low, and the rest are gold, U.S. debt and U.S. dollar cash. As of the end of last week, Alpha's Dolphin asset allocation allocation and equity asset position weights were as follows:! ! * * risk disclosure and statement of this article: * * * * dolphin investment research disclaimer and general disclosure * * please refer to the recent article of dolphin investment research portfolio weekly: us unemployment rate rises, China's hope is coming inflation vs pumping, life is not easy in the second half of the year us fiscal spending is like water? The backlash is still coming Is there any redemption for Hong Kong stocks Fitch is just a "paper tiger", there is still hope in China After the violent rebound, will Hong Kong stocks go or stay? " U.S. Interest Rate Hike to Top, Hong Kong Stocks Saved?" How far can China rebound when reality strikes? " Look further, will US interest rate hikes add to stagflation?" Decoding the Mystery of Low U.S. Savings, Is It Sustainable? " The U.S. Housing Market: Subprime Original Sin, Why Resist This time?" 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