The first and only face-to-face confrontation, can the debate between Harris and Trump change the "dead heat"?

On the evening of September 10th local time (9 a.m. on September 11th Beijing time), the first televised debate between the 2024 U.S. Democratic Party candidate and Vice President Harris and the Republican candidate and former President Trump will take place.

The debate will be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, hosted by ABC anchors Linsey Davis and David Muir, lasting 90 minutes. Following the rules of the debate held in June between Trump and Biden, this debate will also use the microphone mute function, where one candidate's microphone will be muted when the other candidate is speaking; there will also be no audience present.

According to CBS, the debate on the 10th may be the only opportunity for the two-party candidates to have a face-to-face confrontation before the general election. At the same time, for Harris, who only became the Democratic candidate in July, the debate will be an important opportunity to increase voter awareness of her.

The latest opinion polls released by The New York Times and Siena College also confirm this. The poll results show that although the two candidates have a small gap in national support rates, a considerable number of voters still express the need to know more about Harris—28% of potential voters say they "feel the need to know more about Harris," but only 9% hold the same view about Trump.

Different Debate Preparation Methods

Harris seems to have been prepared for this debate for a long time. Sources say that since Biden withdrew, Harris has been considering the issue of debating with Trump. Currently, she is diligently preparing in a hotel in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and is following the simulated practice method previously used by Biden. CNN analysis states that Harris choosing Pennsylvania as the preparation location highlights her recognition of the key importance of winning Pennsylvania to win the general election.

Aides say that Harris has been reading briefings on Trump's comments, positions, and even some insulting remarks. During the simulated debate, Democratic consultant and long-time aide to Hillary Clinton, Philippe Reines, plays the role of Trump, helping Harris become familiar with the rhetoric and mannerisms Trump used in debates with Hillary and Biden.

CNN reports that in today's era, no other presidential candidate has participated in more televised debates than Trump. Currently, Harris and her team have been carefully studying the six debates Trump has participated in—three debates with Hillary in 2016, two debates with Biden in 2020, and the first debate with Biden in 2024.

Similar to the June debate, Trump has abandoned traditional preparation methods and instead engaged in free discussions with his staff on policy issues. According to an insider, Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz raised some sharp questions to Trump during the preparation process, including unpleasant issues such as criminal convictions According to the Associated Press, when Trump last prepared for the debate, Republican Senator Marco Antonio Rubio from Florida and other Republicans attended the meeting. This time, the individuals involved in the debate preparation also include former Democrat and former Hawaii Congressman Tulsi Gabbard, who was one of the Democratic primary candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

The report also mentioned that Gabbard was invited mainly because she had debated with Harris during the 2020 Democratic Party primary and had a good performance. Trump's advisors believe that Gabbard attacked Harris's record as a prosecutor that year, to some extent undermining Harris's qualifications for the election.

The New York Times reported that the Trump camp hopes to link Harris to Biden's governance achievements during the debate, convincing voters that Harris bears some responsibility for the current government decisions. At that time, Trump may shift the focus of the debate to topics such as inflation, immigration issues, a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Poll Performance "Neck and Neck", Debate Becomes a "Critical Moment"

The first presidential debate on June 27 not only exposed Biden's weaknesses in physical stamina and age but also became the "last straw" that crushed his re-election plan. How this debate will affect the election results on November 5 has become a focal point of discussion for major media outlets worldwide.

The New York Times reported that both Harris and Trump's teams unanimously believe that the debate on the 10th night will undoubtedly be "a critical moment" for millions of undecided voters, partly because voters are more familiar with Trump but still relatively unfamiliar with Harris.

Aaron Kall, a professor at the University of Michigan who has long studied presidential debates, emphasized in an interview with Al Jazeera that the importance of the debate "should not be underestimated." "Debates cannot win you the election, but if you perform poorly, it will definitely make you lose the election," analyzed Kall.

Given that Harris has less than two months to officially kick off her presidential campaign and lacks experience in handling major policy issues during her tenure as vice president, in terms of exposure and attention, Harris is clearly not on par with Trump. Matthew Levendusky, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, emphasized that in a face-off with Trump, another priority for Harris is to use the debate to establish her image among the American public.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the former Arkansas governor and briefly served as Trump's White House press secretary, also holds a similar view, stating that "we rarely hear news from her (Harris), rarely hear her (Harris) answer questions, and we are not very clear about her (Harris)'s true stance."

However, just less than 48 hours before the debate, Harris's official website updated its page, detailing a series of policies, seemingly responding to external doubts about the lack of substance in her campaign. In this policy list titled "A New Direction Forward," Harris outlined her agenda in areas such as the economy, immigration, and foreign policy Among them, the content related to the economy accounts for the largest proportion, including a series of suggestions such as tax cuts for the middle class, providing affordable childcare services, combating price fraud, reducing healthcare costs, and strengthening social security. In terms of social security, Harris accuses Trump of abusing power for his own benefit, not taking any measures to prevent gun violence, and attempting to restore "cruel" immigration policies.

Earlier, the Associated Press reported that in the first few weeks after being nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate, Harris actually abandoned some of the progressive policies she held during the 2020 presidential campaign, including banning hydraulic fracturing for oil extraction (Note: Hydraulic fracturing is a controversial shale oil and gas drilling technology in the United States, with environmentalists arguing that it will lead to serious consequences such as environmental pollution. Texas and Pennsylvania are at the forefront of this industry), establishing a single-payer healthcare system (Note: a universal healthcare system that covers basic healthcare costs for all residents), and refusing to take a tough stance on illegal immigrants.

In addition, since announcing her candidacy, Harris has experienced a "honeymoon period" with a narrowing gap in support rates with Trump and a doubling of campaign funds. However, facing the "assassination attempt" incident, the fading halo of the Republican National Convention, Vice President Pence's verbal gaffes, and unprecedented unity within the Democratic Party, Trump's situation in August can be described as more challenging.

Nevertheless, the latest polls show that Harris has not gained a decisive advantage during this period, and the support rates of the two party candidates remain neck and neck. The Financial Times analysis based on this poll suggests that in terms of debates, Harris undoubtedly faces greater pressure than Trump.

A national poll released by the Financial Times on the 9th showed that in terms of national support rates, Harris (48.7%) leads Trump (45.8%) by 2.9 percentage points. This slight lead indicates that Harris did not gain additional momentum from the Democratic National Convention. A national poll released by The New York Times and Siena College on the 8th also showed that Trump leads Harris by 1 percentage point, meaning that the two are almost evenly matched in the current campaign landscape.

The Los Angeles Times pointed out in its report that although Harris is regaining much of the support Biden lost among young voters, Latino voters, and African American voters, her situation cannot be described as "optimistic." In most polls, Harris's support rate is still slightly lower than the levels reached by President Obama in 2008 and 2012, and even lower than Biden's level in the last election.

The factors contributing to this situation mainly include two aspects - Trump's support among African American and Latino voters, especially young male voters, is significantly higher than other Republican candidates. In addition, the proportion of undecided voters among young voters and minority voters (with a high overlap between these two groups) is too high.

Author: Huang Yuehan, Source: The Paper, Original Title: "The first and only direct confrontation, can the debate between Harris and Trump change the 'dead heat'?" 》