The infighting among candidates for U.S. Treasury Secretary has escalated, angering Trump! Former Federal Reserve Governor Walsh may serve as the next Treasury Secretary

Wallstreetcn
2024.11.18 23:21
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Some analysts believe that Trump has a good personal relationship with Walsh and often seeks economic advice from him. Walsh's wife is an heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics family, a social status that Trump values. He also considered nominating Walsh as a candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman in 2017. Walsh's long-term goal remains to serve as Chairman of the Federal Reserve

According to informed sources, key advisors to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump have hinted at supporting Kevin Warsh, the "youngest governor" in Federal Reserve history, for the next U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, with Trump expected to interview him in the coming days.

Wallstreetcn previously mentioned that the position of U.S. Treasury Secretary is highly scrutinized due to its importance and influence. The intense competition among two previous candidates dissatisfied Trump, prompting him to continually expand the list of Treasury Secretary candidates, making the situation even more confusing.

On Monday, November 18, the latest reports from the U.S. stock market indicated that some of Trump's advisors believe Warsh is edging out hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for the Treasury position, with Bessent possibly shifting to run for the top economic position in the White House—the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC).

Analysts suggest that Trump has a good personal relationship with Warsh and often seeks his economic advice. Warsh has been with the transition team since Election Day, providing insights on economic policy and personnel decisions.

Moreover, Warsh's wife is an heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics family, a social status that Trump values. He had also considered nominating Warsh as a candidate for Federal Reserve Chair in 2017.

It is reported that Warsh's long-term goal remains to serve as Federal Reserve Chair, which may be realized in the latter half of Trump's term. Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Powell has stated that Trump cannot pressure him to resign early.

Additionally, sources revealed that Trump was originally scheduled to announce his Treasury Secretary choice last Friday after the U.S. stock market closed, and as of last week, Warsh was not on the list of candidates for Treasury Secretary, with Bessent being the closest candidate.

However, the fierce competition between the two main candidates—Bessent and Howard Lutnick, CEO of Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald and co-chair of Trump's transition team—frustrated Trump, leading him to seek other options.

In addition to former investment banker Warsh, Trump is also considering billionaire co-founder Marc Rowan of private equity giant Apollo Global Management.

Lutnick, known for his aggressive style, is expected to still hold a position in Trump's cabinet, though the exact role is unclear, with possibilities including Secretary of Commerce. Trump has privately expressed concerns that Lutnick might "exploit his power" to manipulate the transition process for personal gain.

Analysts state that the lengthy selection process for the Treasury Secretary and internal conflicts have heightened market participants' concerns about the new U.S. government's ability to formulate economic policy. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has traditionally been viewed as one of the most powerful positions in the global economy and finance, responsible for overseeing the massive $28 trillion U.S. debt market, nearly 40 economic sanction programs, and monetary policy Wosh has always advocated for the concept of free trade. In 2011, he wrote that policymakers must "resist the rising tide of economic protectionism" and recognize the benefits of free trade agreements in creating jobs. He also warned against a significant increase in debt burdens and supported the Federal Reserve's "independence." Trump has expressed a desire to be involved in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision-making as president.

Some experts believe that investors will view Wosh's nomination as a sign of stability, as he may oppose some of the most extreme tariff proposals put forth by Trump, who has always valued market opinions, thereby increasing Wosh's chances.

Analysts at brokerage Evercore ISI candidly stated that investors are anxious about Trump's choice for Treasury Secretary, as it involves the balance of power within the government regarding economic policy, particularly the combination of "market-friendly" and "non-friendly" policies:

"And how to adjust less market-friendly trade, immigration, and deficit policies to mitigate adverse impacts."

Sean Simko, global head of fixed income portfolio management at SEI Investments, also mentioned that who serves as U.S. Treasury Secretary will influence people's views on inflation. Although the Federal Reserve is ultimately responsible for controlling inflation, the Treasury Secretary helps guide trade policy and budget management.

Additionally, the billionaire mentioned above, Rowan, is not without a chance, as he has received support from many close allies of Trump, including "son-in-law" Jared Kushner, who has consulted Rowan on foreign and economic policy. Apollo has also extended loans to Kushner's company to assist in refinancing the debt of a Chicago skyscraper.

Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty, who has frequently navigated the "revolving door" between American business and politics, is also one of the candidates for Treasury Secretary. He interviewed for several positions at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate last weekend