《全球主要央行动态》--6 月 26 日-7 月 3 日

The following is a report on the monetary policy dynamics of central banks in major countries and regions around the world from June 26 to July 3.

United States and Canada

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed plans to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before considering interest rate cuts, once again ignoring President Trump's calls for immediate and significant rate reductions. "As long as the U.S. economy remains strong, we believe the prudent approach is to wait, gather more information, and see what these potential impacts are." However, Powell also did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut at the Fed's meeting on July 29-30.

Powell stated that the Fed has no plans to change the way it provides dollar liquidity to other central banks.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin indicated that the slowdown in immigration will make it difficult to interpret the economic conditions reflected in upcoming employment data.

Barkin stated that tariffs are likely to push inflation higher in the coming months and noted that the Fed's policy is well-positioned to respond to future developments.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans expressed that, given the unemployment rate is close to 4% and inflation is around 2.5% and on a downward trend, he believes that tariffs or other supply-side shocks are unlikely to lead to a true 1970s-style stagflation, when the unemployment rate was double the current level and inflation exceeded 13%.

Evans mentioned that even if President Trump nominates a candidate to succeed current Fed Chairman Powell, this move will not affect monetary policy until the nominee is confirmed.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic reiterated that he still expects the Fed to cut rates once this year, while stating that there is no urgency to take action, as there remains much uncertainty about how tariffs will affect inflation dynamics in the U.S. economy.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari believes that cooling inflation will allow the Fed to lower policy rates twice this year, starting in September. Kashkari hinted in an article that if inflation progress stalls or reverses, the Fed may pause the rate-cutting cycle until price increases ease again.

Kashkari stated that recent U.S. inflation data is "quite positive," but some of the inflation effects from tariffs may only be delayed, requiring further time to clarify the impact of tariffs on inflation.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that she sees increasing evidence suggesting that tariffs may not lead to a significant or sustained rise in inflation, which helps strengthen the case for a rate cut in the fall.

Greater China Region

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Monetary Policy Committee held its second quarter regular meeting, stating that it recommends increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments and enhancing the forward-looking, targeted, and effective nature of monetary policy regulation. It should flexibly grasp the strength and pace of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic and financial conditions and the operation of financial markets. Compared to the first quarter meeting, the phrase "cut reserve requirement ratios and interest rates at the right time" was removed.

A table released by the PBOC showing the liquidity provision of various central bank tools as of June 2025 indicates that in June, the central bank's Standing Lending Facility (SLF) operations provided 1.9 billion yuan, absorbed 1.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 300 million yuanEurope

The European Central Bank (ECB) stated that due to various disruptive factors ranging from geopolitical rifts to artificial intelligence, the economy is expected to remain turbulent over the next five years, potentially requiring "strong" actions to control inflation. The ECB updated its five-year strategy, committing to take equally strong measures in response to both excessively high and low inflation.

Central bank officials attending the annual meeting in Sintra, Portugal, indicated that there is no significant challenge to the dollar's status as the global preferred reserve currency in the near term. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that if the Eurozone can implement necessary reforms, the euro could become an alternative to the dollar in the future. She pointed out that 2025 may be viewed as a "critical" year in this process. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that there will be no significant change in the dollar's status at present.

As the Eurozone prepares to endure the impact of U.S. tariffs, two ECB policymakers warned that further appreciation of the euro would hit the already weak Eurozone economy. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said, "If there are 10% tariffs, plus a more than 10% appreciation of the euro, that is enough to affect the export situation." ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the ECB could ignore the euro rising to $1.20, but not higher.

De Guindos mentioned that the ECB is moving towards achieving its 2% inflation target.

De Guindos also noted that financial markets are calm regarding the escalating conflicts in the Middle East, but the situation may suppress economic growth in the Eurozone.

ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann stated that the central bank can wait some time before considering further adjustments to interest rates, and it is still unclear whether further easing should occur within the current cycle.

ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel indicated that the inflation rate in the Eurozone could fall below the ECB's target, thus providing grounds for a moderately supportive policy stance.

ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said that Europe should concentrate on defense investments, as this would lower costs, accelerate financial integration, and create a new class of secure financial assets that could enhance the euro's international standing.

ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus told Reuters that the ECB may still not have all the necessary information, including trade outlook information, by September, making interest rate cuts more likely to come later this year.

ECB Governing Council member Luis de Guindos stated that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut interest rates further, although the inflation rate has reached the 2% target, which is "very good news," but policymakers remain cautious.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the recent rise in inflation has brought more uncertainty to the medium-term price outlook, but he also observed signs of a slowdown in the UK labor market.

Bailey stated that the UK government's ability to bear debt is beyond doubt, and the rise in long-term bond yields reflects global economic uncertainty.

Bailey mentioned that the recent strengthening of the pound reflects changes in investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy, rather than the usual interest rate outlook divergences that drive currency markets.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Silvana Tenreyro stated that the outlook for a soft landing for the UK economy now faces risks, with recent economic data supporting five interest rate cuts in 2025 instead of fourSwiss National Bank governing board alternate member Zanetti stated that even with interest rates at zero, the Swiss National Bank still has tools to guide inflation towards the price stability target.

Russian Central Bank Vice President Zabotkin indicated that if data confirms that the inflation rate is expected to slow to 4% by 2026, the Russian Central Bank may consider cutting interest rates by more than 1 percentage point at the meeting on July 25.

Japan and South Korea

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo stated that Japan's core inflation is still "slightly below" the central bank's 2% target. Ueda also mentioned that the Bank of Japan's estimate range for the neutral interest rate is "very large," but the current policy rate is "below the neutral level."

Newly appointed Bank of Japan Policy Board member Eiji Hirano stated that considering the various risks facing the economy, the central bank should not rush to raise interest rates. When asked whether he is hawkish or dovish on monetary policy, Hirano said he might hold a neutral stance with no clear bias.

Bank of Japan Policy Board member Takeda Hajime stated that after pausing for a period to carefully study the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan should resume the rate hike process.

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong stated that the Bank of Korea is still in a monetary easing cycle but remains vigilant about the risks to financial stability posed by rising housing prices.

The Bank of Korea adjusted its open market operation mechanism, citing a decrease in overseas money supply, and regularly injects liquidity through repurchase agreements. The Bank of Korea announced that starting July 10, in addition to selling seven-day bonds every Thursday, it will purchase bonds through 14-day repurchase agreements every Tuesday to inject liquidity into the short-term money market.

Others

The Bank of Mexico lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.0% at its June meeting, as expected, marking the lowest level since August 2022. However, this decision was not unanimous—Vice President Jonathan Heath voted against it, advocating for maintaining the rate at 8.5%. Notably, Heath had previously supported rate cuts