Trump hints that illegally imposed tariffs will not be refunded, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary states that tariff revenue will "basically remain unchanged" this year

After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that most of the tariff measures implemented last year were illegal, President Trump hinted that he would not refund the related tariffs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra predicted that government tariff revenue in 2026 would hardly change. These statements imply that even in the face of an estimated risk of over $170 billion in tariff refunds, the Trump administration is determined to maintain tariff barriers and has not backed down due to significant court defeats.

According to CCTV News, at a press conference held temporarily at the White House on Friday, the 20th local time, Trump stated that he would sign an executive order to impose a 10% import tariff on global goods, replacing the large-scale tariffs previously imposed under the U.S. International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which were deemed illegal by the U.S. Supreme Court.

CCTV mentioned that when asked by reporters whether the approximately $175 billion in tariff revenue collected previously would be refunded, Trump stated that the Supreme Court's ruling was flawed and did not mention "keeping this money" or "not keeping this money"—he guessed that "for the next two years, or even five years, this matter will have to go to court."

On the same day, Becerra stated in a speech at the Dallas Economic Club that the Trump administration would invoke alternative legal powers granted by Congress, including Section 122 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, to replace the tariffs imposed under IEEPA that were overturned by the Supreme Court.

Becerra emphasized, "No one should expect a decrease in tariff revenue." He stated that the Treasury Department's estimates show that the aforementioned Section 122 combined with potentially strengthened Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs would keep tariff revenue in 2026 "basically unchanged." He reiterated this judgment during the Q&A session after his speech, showing the government's confidence in building a new tariff system.

In subsequent media interviews, Becerra again emphasized that even with the Supreme Court's ruling, there was "no change" in terms of national security and fiscal revenue. Becerra criticized the Supreme Court's decision, stating that the American public would face a setback in economic income as a result. He said:

"In terms of direction of development, national security, how we achieve goals through these agreements, and fiscal revenue, nothing has changed. What has changed is that the Supreme Court has stripped the president of his negotiating leverage."

CCTV previously mentioned that according to estimates from economists at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, tariffs imposed under IEEPA have exceeded $175 billion. After such tariffs were ruled illegal, the government may need to refund $175 billion in tariffs.

However, Becerra stated that the federal government's tariff revenue is closer to $130 billion, rather than the $175 billion suggested by the aforementioned research model. If tariff refunds occur, it may be similar to "corporate welfare." The new tariffs will be slightly more complex compared to those based on IEEPA.

"We will return to the previous tariff levels. It's just that the method will be slightly less direct and more complex." According to CCTV News, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled this Friday that the large-scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the IEEPA lack clear legal authorization. The majority of the justices believe that the IEEPA does not grant the president the power to impose tariffs without congressional approval.

Additionally, according to CCTV, after the ruling was announced, Trump declared that he would sign an order to impose an additional 10% tariff on global goods based on the existing regular tariffs, under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This tariff policy is expected to take effect "in about three days."

This judicial defeat will trigger an unprecedented battle for tax refunds. According to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, by the end of last year, the Trump administration had collected approximately $170 billion in tariffs through the IEEPA, affecting over 300,000 importers. A large number of companies, including Costco, Lululemon, and Alcoa, as well as over 1,500 companies, have filed lawsuits seeking to recover the tariffs they have paid.

The Battle for Hundreds of Billions in Tax Refunds Begins

The ruling announced by the Supreme Court on Friday did not provide clear guidance on refund eligibility and processes, leaving this issue to be handled by the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who voted against the ruling, wrote in his dissenting opinion, "The Court today says nothing about whether and how the government should refund the billions of dollars collected from importers," and warned that the refund process "could be a mess."

According to Bloomberg Economics analysis, as of December 14 last year, the textile, toy, and food and beverage industries were the largest importers of IEEPA tariffs, while importers of parts in the machinery, electronics, and automotive industries were also significantly affected. Since refunds will be issued to the holders of import records who paid the tariffs, large companies that import goods directly are more likely to receive refunds, while small businesses that purchase from wholesalers are at a disadvantage.

The National Retail Federation has called for a "seamless" refund process, with the organization's Vice President of Government Relations, David French, stating that tariff relief will provide an economic boost, allowing businesses to invest in operations. However, Beisente has questioned this, suggesting that refunds could become "corporate windfalls," and asked companies like Costco that are suing the government, "Will they return the money to customers?"

According to Treasury Department data, the U.S. Treasury currently has about $774 billion in cash, sufficient to meet refund demands. Beisente previously stated in an interview that the refund process could take weeks to months, "perhaps exceeding a year."

Market Impact Remains Unclear

Legal and consulting experts expect the government may increase the difficulty of refunds by requiring companies to prove they did not pass on costs or submit extensive documentation. Customs brokers and lawyers advise businesses to at least prepare import records to respond to potential refund applications. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has announced that starting February 6, the Treasury will no longer issue refunds in paper check form, switching to electronic payments For the retail industry, the impact of the ruling is filled with uncertainty. Zak Stambor, chief analyst at Emarketer, pointed out in a report that "while the ruling provides some short-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainties faced by retailers and brands." It is expected to bring "moderate tailwinds" to retail sales starting this year, but this benefit will gradually fade before 2028.

Joe Feldman, an analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, stated that the issues raised by the ruling outweigh the certainties. It takes time for businesses to recover funds that have already been paid, and commodity prices typically do not decrease due to the removal of tariffs, except for bulk commodities like milk and eggs. He believes that "the actual situation will not change much."

Michael Wieder, co-founder of infant product manufacturer Lalo, stated that the company will take all necessary measures to recover over $2 million in tariffs. He admitted, "We do not expect refunds to be issued overnight, but we hope to be at the front of the line." When asked how they would handle the refund if received, he said, "We'll cross that bridge when we come to it."

Hans Heim, CEO of bicycle manufacturer Ibis Cycles, expects to eventually receive a refund, but the timing is uncertain. He noted that the company has spent a significant amount of time over the past year restructuring its supply chain, analyzing tariff changes, and cutting costs. "People will superficially be happy to receive a refund, but they would rather that none of this had ever happened."

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