花旗将对美国股票的评级从 “增持” 下调至 “中性”，并称随着 AI 热潮进一步被市场消化，美股成长股预计在四季度回调，美国经济也可能出现衰退风险。

花旗大幅下调美股评级：成长股四季度或回调，美国经济可能衰退！

The governor of the Mexican state of Nuevo León, where Tesla's fifth Gigafactory is located, recently stated that Tesla has entered the final stage of designing the new Model 2, which will be the "best" and most affordable electric vehicle in the world.

Model 2 is coming? Tesla reportedly completes the design of the new generation affordable electric vehicle.

Japanese automakers have "dominated" the Thai market for sixty years. Is it about to change?

Chinese automakers "take over" the "turf" of Japanese automakers

GPT-4 has been "open-sourced" again. SemiAnalysis has "unveiled" a wealth of information about GPT-4. The parameter scale is more than 10 times that of GPT-3, and it adopts the MoE model architecture. GPT-4 was trained with 13 trillion tokens.

GPT-4 "The Ultimate Revelation": 18 trillion parameters, trained once for $63 million!

摩根士丹利予理想汽车 “增持” 评级，目标价 40 美元。

KEEP 今日暗盘高开，一度涨超 11% 报 32.2 港元，市值接近 170 亿港元。

一、事件：2023 世界机器人大会 据官网显示，2023 世界机器人大会将于 8 月 16 日至 22 日在京举办，...

又一机器人盛会下月举办，超 500 余展品将亮相，优必选、小米等有望亮相

花旗研究分析师 Christopher Danely 在周一的报告中表示，英伟达将占据 AI 芯片市场 “至少 90%” 的市场份额，AMD 位居第二。Danely 指出，上一代 AI 芯片 中，AMD 的硬件速度大约是英伟达的 80%，而英伟达的 H100 与 AMD 的 MI300 相比，也具有类似的优势。

分析师：英伟达将占 AI 芯片市场至少 9 成份额

大摩认为，英伟达的强劲业绩和疯狂涨势有望持续到下半年，更是今年唯一一家可能因为 AI 而业绩超预期公司。最重要的是，在 AI 赛道上，英伟达的竞争地位优于其他任何公司。

下半年继续押注 AI 股？大摩：英伟达仍是 “最佳选择”！

中信证券明明认为，工业企业的整体库存仍处在偏高的水平，低库存是结构性的。如果外需和地产需求持续面临压力，且政策刺激力度相对温和，工业生产和 PPI 难以确认较大的拐点。

中信证券：库存周期的拐点临近了吗？

"It is difficult to prove that the P/E ratios of many (US) technology companies are reasonable." "European stocks have lower valuations, making them more attractive."

US stocks peaked? Hedge funds reduce bullish positions to a ten-year low, while betting on European stocks reaches an all-time high.

英伟达用 A100 和 H100 两块显卡，轻松拿下了万亿美元的市值，坐稳了 AI 时代的宝座，而它们用的显存，正是 AMD 当初力推的 HBM。

AI 引爆，HBM 崛起

ASML 计划在未来一段时间内减少招聘人数，去年该公司招聘了 1 万名新员工。

Open Source Securities stated that the transformation of autonomous driving algorithms has driven a competition in cloud computing power. Major automakers are actively building their own data centers. Companies that can effectively adapt the Transformer algorithm and facilitate its implementation on in-vehicle platforms are expected to gain a competitive advantage.

Has the era of autonomous driving arrived? Breaking free from high-precision maps, car companies are also competing for "computing power"!

Chinese automakers could have taken advantage of their price and cost advantages to "sweep" into Europe, but they still choose to rely on faster update speed and "hardcore" quality to compete with European automakers.

China's electric vehicles are rising in Europe, relying on production capacity rather than price wars.

巴克莱预计，美股将在年底前都保持区间波动，主要是因为以科技股为中心的涨势不会扩大到标普 500 指数其他板块。尽管该行将标普年底目标点位上调至 4150 点，但这仍意味着美股下半年还要跌 6%。

科技股涨完之后，无人接棒！巴克莱：美股下半年预计要跌！

港股中报业绩 “预期差”、国内外政策的边际变化都很重要！观察的窗口期分别对应七至八月中报披露的业绩期、七月末举行的政治局会议、杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会及九月份的 G20 峰会。

港股可能已经阶段性筑底！最佳配置窗口显现，关注几大关键时点！

Currently, the top seven companies in terms of market value account for 55% of the weight in the NASDAQ Composite Index. After the adjustment, this will decrease to below 40%. At that time, funds tracking the NASDAQ Composite Index will sell stocks of companies with reduced weight. On Monday, most of the stocks of these seven companies experienced a decline.

US Stock Focus: Controlling the influence of the "Seven Sisters" of technology, NASDAQ Composite Index will undergo "special adjustment" on July 21st.

据知情人士透露，KKR & Co.正在为其所持雷士照明中国业务的多数股权探索各种选择，包括出售的可能性。知情人士称，KKR 正在与顾问合作，对雷士照明中国业务的 70% 股权进行战略评估。通过这项交易可能会获得约 10 亿美元，或在今年晚些时候正式启动出售程序，但尚未做出最终决定，KKR 也可以选择将这部分资产持有更长时间。KKR 的一位代表不予置评。

KKR 据悉正考虑对雷士中国多数股权的选项，包括将其出售

* 瑞信上调理想汽车目标价至 48 美元 料次财季净利润创新高

* 瑞信上调理想汽车目标价至 48 美元  料次财季净利润创新高

Splitting up the joint venture between Pharmaron and Wuxi Biologics, and replicating the success of Wuxi Biologics in 2017, is it possible?

Another Capital Miracle from the Longbridge Dolphin of the Pharmaron Group | Insight Research

港股 IMAX CHINA 暂停交易，暂停交易前涨幅为 27.2%，成交额超 2000 万港元。

* 大摩重申阿里为中国互联网企业首选 蚂蚁罚款结果为正面催化剂

* 大摩重申阿里为中国互联网企业首选  蚂蚁罚款结果为正面催化剂

According to Mary Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the current inflation rate in the United States is still too high and needs to be raised twice more. Michael Barr, the Vice Chairman responsible for supervision, stated that they are close to the target but there is still some work to be done. Loretta Mester, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that in order to ensure inflation returns to 2%, further rate hikes are necessary.

Three top officials of the Federal Reserve, known as the "hawkish trio," have stated that inflation is not yet under control and that interest rates need to be raised further this year.

健适医疗据悉考虑最快明年在香港 IPO，已聘请中信证券、高盛等为顾问。

港股生物技术股开盘走高，三叶草生物涨近 7%，云顶新耀涨 2.66%，百济神州、药明生物跟涨。

港股恒指高开涨 1.04％，国企指数涨 1.21％，科指开涨 1.69%，造车新势力走高。

市场等待美国通胀数据和银行业财报，多位美联储官员讲话支持继续加息，美股大中小盘指数全线收涨。热门中概普涨，蔚来汽车涨近 8%。巴克莱与高盛唱反调，称今年美股涨势仅限于科技巨头。Threads 不到五天注册用户超过 1 亿，打破 ChatGPT 创下的纪录。台积电明年将开始建造第二座日本工厂。阿里巴巴减持 5.574 亿股商汤股票。KEEP 明日上市，今日进行暗盘交易。

早餐 | 高盛预计美股出现 “全面牛”，港股回购规模同比大增近 50%

中信建投研报指出，随着人工智能技术的快速发展，自动驾驶技术有望迎来发展拐点。目前，在美国路上行驶的特斯拉选装 FSD 的车型，已经更新至 FSD Beta V11.4.4 版本，而马斯克表示从 V12 版本开始，将取消 Beta 测试版，有望迎来 FSD 的正式版本，并表示 FSD V12 版本有望采用端到端的人工智能算法更新其自动驾驶包。在 V12 之前，FSD Beta 已大量使用由人工智能驱动的神经网络，但仅被用于感知部分用于检测驾驶环境，在决策和驾驶方面仍依赖于常规编程，即将摄像头传感器数据作为神经网络算法的输入，输出汽车周围环境的三维表示，然后使用传统的路径算法来输出转向、加速、制动和其他驾驶行为。而 V12 将引入端到端 AI，即将图像等传感器数据输入神经网络，然后直接得到转向、刹车和加速等决策输出。这种 AI 算法模式下，有望提升路测优化效率，降低误差概率，提升整体性能上限。自动驾驶成为人工智能重要的赋能场景，并助力自动驾驶加速落地。加之，国内相关政策法规配套正不断推进，L3 级及更高级别自动驾驶商业化应用未来可期，汽车智能化产业链相关标的有望深度受益。

中信建投：自动驾驶商用有望加速

微软近日升级了 iPad 版 OneNote 应用，支持用户在撰写文档、笔记过程中使用上标和下标，方便用户更准确地输入脚注和方程式。

微软测试 iPad 新版 OneNote，支持嵌入上标和下标

大空头吉姆·查诺斯表示，特斯拉的全自动驾驶技术在汽车转售市场上的价值可能接近于零。查诺斯在回应一位科技评论员时发推称：“目前，在零售市场上，特斯拉 “全自动驾驶” 套件的价值可能接近于零。” 他补充称：“请记住，马斯克曾说过，拥有 FSD 套件将使你的特斯拉汽车的价值增加数倍于 FSD 套件本身的成本。但在回购时却几乎没有赋予它任何价值。事实上，随着时间的推移，它比车辆本身贬值得更快。

大空头查诺斯：特斯拉自动驾驶技术在二手车市场可能一文不值

数据显示，截至 7 月 10 日发稿，港股市场 2023 年的回购金额已突破 500 亿港元，与去年同期相比增近五成。金融蓝筹股和科技股成为回购潮主力军。其中，腾讯控股、友邦保险的年内回购金额均超百亿港元。分析人士称，港股回购潮起，一定程度上传递出市场对港股未来走势的信心。

金融蓝筹股和科技股成主力军，回购潮提振信心，机构看多港股后市

台积电将于 2024 年 4 月开始建造其在日本的第二座工厂，预计将于 2026 年投产。

KEEP announced in a statement that it plans to issue 10,838,600 shares at a final offering price of HK$28.92 per share, with an estimated net proceeds of approximately HK$192 million. The shares will be listed on July 12, 2023, with a board lot size of 100 shares. The preliminary subscription results for the Hong Kong public offering have exceeded the initial offering size by approximately 3.08 times. The final number of shares offered under the Hong Kong public offering is 1,083,900 shares, accounting for 10% of the initial offering size. The preliminary subscription results for the international offering have slightly exceeded the initial offering size by approximately 1.37 times. The final number of shares offered under the international offering is 9,754,700 shares, accounting for 90% of the initial offering size. Based on the offering price of HK$28.92 per share and the cornerstone investment agreement, cornerstone investors have subscribed for a total of 2,646,500 shares, representing approximately 0.50% of the initial offering size and 24.42% of the total issued shares after the completion of the global offering.

KEEP's expected listing date is July 12th, with an offering price of HKD 28.92 per share.

根据周一（7 月 10 日）披露的文件，阿里巴巴集团在 7 月 6 日出售了约 5.574 亿股商汤科技股票，平均价格为每股 1.82 港元（最新收盘价为 1.87 港元）交易总价值约为 10.1 亿港元。阿里巴巴对商汤科技的持股比例因此从 5.29% 降至 3.15% 或 8.164 亿股。

阿里巴巴减持 10 亿港元股商汤股票

Zuckerberg announced that Threads reached 100 million registrations in just 5 days. This is even faster than ChatGPT's monthly user count reaching one billion within two months. This is also due to the data security integration between Threads and Instagram. Since the launch of Threads, Twitter's user traffic has been declining. Alongside the competition between these two major platforms, Musk and Zuck engaged in another heated exchange over the weekend, with the conversation being quite eye-catching.

Twitter's formidable rival, Threads, surpasses 100 million registrations, outpacing OpenAI, while Twitter's traffic declines.

Market awaits US inflation data and banking industry financial reports. Several Federal Reserve officials spoke in support of continuing rate hikes, but also hinted that interest rates are nearing their peak for the cycle. US stocks fell in unison during midday trading, but rebounded to reach daily highs by the end of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 200 points, while technology stocks experienced a general decline. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index reached a three-week high, with NIO Inc. USD OV rising nearly 8% and Qinhuai Data rising over 12%. The two-year US Treasury yield fell sharply by 8 basis points to a monthly low, and the US dollar index dropped below 102 to a three-week low. Offshore renminbi approached a monthly high of 7.22 yuan. Oil prices fell by about 1%, European natural gas dropped over 11%, and palladium fell below $1,200 for the first time since December 2018.

US stocks halted their three-day decline, with Chinese concept stocks rising more than 1% to lead the way, while the US dollar and US bond yields both fell.

外界认为，英伟达专供中国的 A800 芯片，在无许可证的情况下也将被禁售。

英伟达 A800 芯片售价超十万元！有经销商惜售，涨幅最高三成

申万宏源认为，今年以来 PPI 持续低于预期，主因结构性产能过剩替代上游大宗、主导价格趋势。

产能周期与 PPI 下行的 “长尾”

A survey shows that the latest quarterly financial report has a negative impact on the US stock market. Major US banks may face unfavorable conditions, and the S&P 500 index will suffer.

Earnings season hits US stocks: "Tough times"? This week, the entire market closely watches banking stocks.

秦淮数据美股盘前拉升，现涨超 5%，报道称招商银行对秦淮数据发出每股 ADS 9.2 美元的竞价收购提议。

秦淮数据美股盘前涨超 5%，报道称招商银行对其发出收购提议

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) stated that the halving of vehicle purchase tax was implemented on June 1st last year. Therefore, the resonance of the policy launch period combined with the purchasing delay factors from March to June last year resulted in an exceptionally high base in July last year. This unfavorable situation has affected the year-on-year growth rate of the automotive market in July this year. If negative growth occurs in July this year, it should be considered a normal phenomenon.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM): In the first half of the year, there was a rare consecutive month-on-month growth in passenger vehicle sales. If negative growth occurs in July, it should be considered a normal phenomenon.

美银表示，假如 Threads 成功，Meta 将在 2024 年吸引 2.5 亿普通用户，并且 Meta 选择在明年开始实现收入增长，达到推特 2021 年每用户平均收入（23 美元）的 50%，估计 2024 年的收入将有机会达到 20 亿-30 亿美元。

大行速睇 | 华尔街看好阿里、Meta！曾经的 “特斯拉头号劲敌” Rivian 目标价获大幅上调！

蚂蚁罚单落地利空出尽，小摩预测蚂蚁将在未来 12-18 个月进行 IPO，并成为阿里股价催化剂！另一方面，麦格理继续看好阿里盈利能力，认为股价还有 74% 上涨空间！

“最差的情况已经过去”！华尔街都在上调阿里目标价！

高盛等华尔街大行认为，AI 芯片的庞大需求将成为台积电未来 3-5 年的关键增长引擎。

AI 炒作引爆芯片需求，台积电二季度营收超预期

乘联会：6 月新能源车国内零售渗透率 35.1%，较去年同期 27.3% 的渗透率提升 7.8 个百分点。

乘联会：今年 1-6 月零售持续环比增长，这是本世纪以来从未出现过的逐月环比增长的走势，今年 1-6 月累计零售 952.4 万辆，同比增长 2.7%。

乘联会数据显示，6 月新能源乘用车批发销量达到 76.1 万辆，同比增长 33.4%，环比增长 12.1%。今年 1-6 月累计批发 354.4 万辆，同比增长 43.7%。6 月新能源车市场零售 66.5 万辆，同比增长 25.2%，环比增长 14.7%。今年以来累计零售 308.6 万辆，同比增长 37.3%。

乘联会：6 月新能源车市场零售 66.5 万辆 同比增长 25.2%

美股造车新势力盘前走低，小鹏汽车跌超 4%，理想汽车跌 2.8%，蔚来汽车跌 1.6%。