中金认为，本次 1 年以内存款下调 10bp 为 5 轮降息中首次，标志着后续存款利率曲线全面下行可能开启。中信指出，长端 LPR 报价下行的可能性有所增加，中金称幅度可能在 10bp-20bp。

年内第三轮 “存款降息”，这一次不一样？LPR 会降吗？

马斯克在一次访谈中表示，他的公司从未让投资者赔钱，除非他们提前出售。他还提到了特斯拉创造了最多的百万富翁员工，他认为这是一件好事。马斯克还表示，他可以为 Boring Company 和 Neuralink 提供全部资金，但其他投资者的参与可以为公司建立估值，并帮助员工获得流动性。这些信息属于商业相关信息。

马斯克：我的公司从来没让投资者赔钱，特斯拉创造了最多的百万富翁员工

韦德布什证券公司的分析师丹·艾夫斯周四将特斯拉的目标股价从 310 美元上调至 350 美元，理由是他 “越来越看好电动汽车市场份额的进一步上涨和 2024 年利润率的企稳”。艾夫斯说，这将使特斯拉明年的市值达到 1 万亿美元。

韦德布什上调特斯拉目标价至 350 美元，预计明年市值重返 1 万亿美元

民营连锁超市纷纷进行实控权转让，商投投资成为红旗连锁的新主人，永辉超市控制权转让给西安国资。物美、家家悦和美宜佳等仍在坚守。30 年前，中国迎来了第一家连锁超市，随后连锁超市行业迅速发展。家乐福和沃尔玛相继进入中国市场。

民营连锁超市，告别进行时

BlackRock is still searching for acquisition targets to enter the alternative investment field and further enhance its position in the private equity market.

Breaking news! BlackRock wanted to take control of Huaping, but the negotiations fell through.

当地时间 12 月 21 日，法国金融市场管理局批准加密货币交易所 Coinbase 在该国的虚拟资产服务提供商资格。注册后，Coinbase 将可向法国用户提供全套零售、机构和生态系统产品与服务。

Coinbase 在法国获得加密货币许可证

据媒体援引几位知情人士称，比亚迪正在与匈牙利政府就投资数十亿欧元建立电动汽车新工厂进行最后阶段的谈判。

报道：比亚迪最快周五宣布第一家欧洲工厂，落地匈牙利

Tesla previously warned that it would be difficult to increase production and may only reach an annual delivery of 250,000 vehicles by 2025. However, according to media estimates, the current production speed of the 4680 battery is only enough to equip 24,000 Tesla vehicles per year. Tesla is facing difficulties in producing battery cathodes using dry coating technology.

Tesla's mass production may be delayed! The production capacity of the 4680 battery is said to only meet 10% of the demand.

新一轮房改启动，国家开发银行在福州推出首笔配售型保障性住房贷款，旨在解决保障性住房建设滞后的问题。目前将保障性住房分为配租型和配售型两种，配售型保障性住房按保本微利原则配售。与此同时，中国公租房/廉租房占比较低，仅为 2.3%。香港模式解决了居住权问题，但存在高房价和土地财政等问题。新加坡以政府供应的组屋为主，形成保障房 + 商品房双轨运行的机制。

新一轮房改启动，香港还是新加坡模式？

存款利率迎年内第三次下调，长期限存款利率降幅更大。下调存款利率有助于缓解负债端压力，改善存款定期化趋势，鼓励居民转化为消费。眼下银行净息差持续下行，且存款利率调整有助于缓解负债端压力。

存款利率迎年内第三次下调：长期限存款利率降幅更大，为何频繁下调

High price differentials have given rise to a group of "grain profiteers"...

Have you heard of the 'grain water tourists'? International rice prices have just hit a 15-year high.

According to Goldman Sachs, the global weight loss market is expected to reach $77 billion by 2030. GLP-1 class products have been getting stronger generation after generation, making it difficult for competitors like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to challenge their leading position.

JPMorgan's view on the US stock market in 2024 | Pharmaceuticals: Will "weight loss giants" Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk continue to dominate?

Alibaba's senior management undergoes a major reshuffle.

Ma Yun's most trusted person holds absolute power

商务部、科技部公布《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》，自公布之日起实施，商务部、科技部公告 2020 年第 38 号同时废止。属于军民两用技术的，纳入出口管制管理。

特斯拉成为今年全球散户最爱的个股，吸引了大量个人投资者资金流入。特斯拉的买入量甚至超过了标普 500ETF 基金。与 2019 年相比，特斯拉在散户最爱个股榜单上的排名有了显著提升。此外，散户在 2023 年投入的资金已是 2018 年全年的四倍多。

特斯拉成今年全球散户最爱个股

According to Morgan Stanley, the revenue growth of NVIDIA may be the biggest surprise in 2024. In the coming period, NVIDIA will not face significant competitive pressure in the performance-driven market. The only thing to watch out for is the cost.

Morgan Stanley's view on the US stock market in 2024: Will NVIDIA be ambushed by the "inference side" of the chip industry?

Top Highlights of 2024: Will the US Economy Experience a Hard Landing "Better Late Than Never" or Will the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates 8 Times to Ensure a Soft Landing for the Economy?

Morgan Stanley: "Ten Unexpected Events That Could Impact the Global Market in 2024"

According to Morgan Stanley, AI adoption in the B2B sector is currently slow, with most companies yet to make substantial investments in AI. However, it is expected to experience significant growth in the coming years, with cloud services and AI software providers benefiting the most.

Morgan Stanley's view on the US stock market in 2024 | Will the B-side of AI exceed expectations?

12 月 21 日，外交部发言人汪文斌主持例行记者会。汪文斌指出，相关措施以安全为名，奉行 “美国优先”，违背市场经济和公平竞争原则，威胁全球产业链供应链安全，是赤裸裸的保护主义，涉嫌违反世贸组织最惠国待遇、国民待遇等原则，一经提出就引发了包括美国的欧洲盟友在内的多国强烈不满。美方近期发布的所谓新规是 “美式保护主义” 的升级版，中方对此坚决反对。汪文斌称，我们敦促美方遵守世贸组织规则，维护公平竞争的贸易秩序，为各国企业提供公平公正、非歧视的营商环境。中方将密切跟踪后续情况，必要时采取措施维护自身合法权益。

美国考虑提高对中国电动汽车关税，外交部：“美式保护主义” 的升级版

港股恒大汽车涨近 40%，现报 0.55 港元。

Chinese auto tech startup iMotion saw its stock slump 13% in its Hong Kong debut, reflecting concerns about its heavy reliance on a single client in a competitive market. The company generates about 95% of its revenue from Geely, making it vulnerable to instability if it loses its biggest client. iMotion posted revenue of RMB 543 million ($76 million) and a net loss of RMB 100 million in the first half of 2023. Losses are expected to continue in the foreseeable future.

Car tech firm iMotion shares slump 13% in Hong Kong debut

浙江省发改委近日发布政策，提到推动杭州市有序取消小客车限行限牌等政策。同时还包括落实新能源汽车减免购置税政策和电价优化等举措。此外，还有组织促消费活动、支持餐饮品牌建设和商贸业市场主体发展等措施。总之，该政策旨在促进经济高质量发展，推动消费和企业创新发展。

浙江省发改委：推动杭州市有序取消小客车限行限牌等政策

This new study supports the use of LLM with twice the size of the device's operating memory, which can improve the inference speed of the GPU by several times. The media reports that Apple's plan to integrate generative AI into iOS 18 may be accelerated.

AI iPhone Prelude? Apple publishes paper to solve "running large models on mobile memory"

北京时间今天午时，据外媒报道，X 平台突发 App 崩溃。众多用户也发现主页无法刷新、内容无法显示等问题，应用几乎无法使用。X 平台是 Twitter 的继承者，目前是马斯克全资拥有的公司，并计划将其作为其他产品的基础。众多用户、媒体、自媒体、政商账号均在 X 平台上设立，目前尚不确定崩溃所影响的范围。

X 平台崩溃

港股恒大汽车盘中大涨超 20%，该股近 4 日累计涨幅超 57%。

港股恒大汽车盘中大涨超 20%

Goldman Sachs pointed out that historically, during the period when inflation falls from a high level, the stock market usually experiences the best returns. The European and American stock markets are expected to break through the wide range of fluctuations and enter an "optimistic" phase, ushering in a general upward trend. Analysts have raised the year-end target price for the S&P 500 index in 2024 to 5,100 points.

Goldman Sachs: What is the logic behind the "breakthrough at high levels" in the European and American stock markets next year?

腾讯与网易在派对游戏领域展开了竞争。腾讯推出了手游《元梦之星》并进行了大规模营销推广，希望打造下一代国民游戏。腾讯在游戏宣发上投入巨大，并与腾讯系产品进行联动。此举显示出腾讯想超越网易的决心。《元梦之星》强调 “正版” 并获得了《糖豆人》的正版授权。该游戏被认为是腾讯在爆款游戏上的重要尝试。

两大巨头的 “派对” 战争

阿里巴巴出现人事变动，或难支持股价显著反弹。大摩估計，相關非核心資產，包括股票、其他投資及投資項目等約值 670 億美元，其中，上市公司中通快遞及小鵬汽車持股價值分別逾 10 億美元。

大摩：阿里非核心資產約值 670 億美元

港股午後轉升，恒指半日跌 40 點或 0.2%，報 16573，午後止跌回升。恒指最新造 16626，升 13 點或 0.1%。科技股指數造 3712，升 0.4%。大市成交 427.16 億元。藍籌滙控升 0.1%；港交所升 0.3%；平保無升跌；建行持平；友邦跌 1.4%。電動車股普跌，小鵬傳 G3 產品線停更新，現跌 2.7%；理想汽車挫 4%；蔚來插 8.3%；零跑汽車降 1.2%；但比亞迪升 0.6%。

港股午後轉升 電動車股普跌

亚洲股市在美国股市下跌的影响下出现下跌，投资者对美联储降息前景的乐观情绪减弱。日本股市表现不佳，丰田汽车因安全丑闻和召回事件而下挫。标普 500 指数期货小幅上涨，纳斯达克指数上涨。美元走弱，10 年期美国国债收益率上升。比特币和以太币上涨，大宗商品中 WTI 原油下跌，现货金上涨。

亚市午盘：日本股市领跌亚股 标普 500 指数期货反弹

拜登政府正在討論提高對中國電動車等部分商品的關稅，目前對中國電動車徵收的關稅為 25%。此舉旨在阻止中國汽車製造商進軍美國市場。消息稱，其他可能被提高關稅的商品還包括太陽能產品和電動車電池。白宮和其他機構的官員正在討論相關關稅，希望在明年初完成評估。拜登政府也在考慮降低一些中國產消費品的關稅。目前尚未就對華關稅問題做出決定。

拜登政府傳商討提高中國電動車等關稅

在美联储试图降低高通胀的时期，美联储暂停行动和经济衰退之间的时间间隔往往会缩短，有时甚至会重叠。巴克莱警告称，如果今天的情况是这样，可能会给股市带来麻烦。

理解市场 | 为什么美联储 “转鸽” 不再是买入信号？

金十数据 12 月 21 日讯，该行预期，随着新车型的不断推出和潜在的更优惠定价，电动车的渗透率将在明年进一步提高。同时，鉴于锂价格调整，电动车电池成本将进一步优化，可能部分缓解电动车定价竞争问题。在电动车中，该行看好比亚迪和理想汽车，认为他们的月销量持续强劲，盈利能力胜同业，均予以买入评级，目标价分别为 391 港元及 56 美元。另预期他们强劲的销量势头将于 12 月持续，部分原因是基于降价。该行预计理想的新款 MPV 纯电动车型 MEGA 将带来增量销量，而比亚迪的高端品牌 (仰望 U8 和方程豹 BAO5) 将在明年增加销量，支持其整体产品结构。

汇丰研究：内地新能源车定价压力可能会持续 偏好比亚迪及理想汽车

The recent surge in the cryptocurrency market is mainly driven by Meme tokens and new types of NFTs, leading to a sharp rise in altcoins. Dogecoin has become the hottest token in the past two years, with many tokens experiencing gains of over 1000%, although their trading prices remain relatively low. In addition, the value of tokens on trading platforms such as Solana and Avalanche has also skyrocketed, with Bitcoin reaching its highest level in over a week. The CEO of cryptocurrency investment firm Satori Research stated that the altcoin season is back, similar to the first quarter of 2021. Bitcoin is expected to be influenced by the approval of spot ETFs and the recovery of FTX's debt claim prices. The debt claim prices of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX Group have also increased to some extent.

Cryptocurrencies are going crazy again! Dogecoin leads the surge of altcoins, and Bitcoin briefly surpasses $44,000.

华尔街最大空头坚持认为，2024 年对美股来说将不是一个好年份！考虑到美联储似乎不太可能迅速降息，而且美股估值高、信贷息差窄、波动性 “异常低” ，“现在不是大举买入股票的时候”。

理解市场 | 明年美股为何可能继续跌？

在最近的一场 “AI Everywhere” 发布会上，Intel 的 CEO Pat Gelsinger 批评了 Nvidia 的 CUDA 生态系统，并表示整个行业都希望能够挑战 CUDA。尽管 CUDA 为人工智能算法的训练和部署提供了便利，但行业对其过度依赖产生了警惕性。一些公司如 Google 和 OpenAI 正在研发自己的解决方案。本文将深入分析 CUDA 的强势来源以及谁能够打破其垄断。

谁能挑战英伟达 CUDA？

Goldman Sachs said that the US dollar is overvalued by about 14-15% based on the real trade-weighted basis. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times next year, leading to a decline of around 3% in the US dollar index.

Goldman Sachs: The US dollar is overvalued by about 14%-15%.

恒指开盘跌 0.96%，恒生科技指数跌 1.27%。

亚洲股市在隔夜美股下跌的影响下出现下跌。标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数下跌，澳大利亚、日本和韩国股市也出现下跌。油价下跌，金价趋于稳定。美元和欧元基本持平，离岸人民币基本持平。比特币和以太币上涨。大宗商品方面，WTI 原油下跌，现货金上涨。整体来看，亚洲股市下跌，大宗商品价格出现波动。

亚市早盘：亚洲股市下跌 追随隔夜美国股市跌势

The US stock market is approaching historical highs, but it is facing significant selling pressure. Disappointing earnings reports from FedEx and General Mills have dampened the optimism for a "resilient" consumer cyclical rebound. Some investors have been buying a large number of put options on the S&P 500 index, which may exacerbate the market sell-off.

Understanding the Market | Suddenly Crashed! What Happened to the Overnight US Stock Market?

For the first time in decades! In Japan, you can finally earn interest on your savings.

A Landmark Event! After a decade of "zero interest rates on deposits," the Japanese banking industry has started raising interest rates.

OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 新增了聊天存档功能，用户可以保存聊天记录并进行精细化管理。这个功能对于科研、医疗、写作、金融、律师等行业非常有帮助，用户可以构建自己的文本资料数据库。聊天存档功能可以保证数据的准确性，方便用户回顾聊天记录和与他人共享。

ChatGPT 新增聊天存档功能，可构建自己的聊天数据库啦！

2024 年货币政策的三个 “锚”：汇率约束、银行成本、通胀水平。预计明年货币政策将逐步趋稳，注重资金直达实体，工具进退可控。降息方面，可能小于 MLF；降准方面，存在调降空间，但或难成为临时补充流动性的最优选择；信贷投放将注重质量和定向性。关注汇率升值超调，可能成为宽松的触发器。2024 年央行面临的目标权衡与能力边界将影响货币政策取向。

2024 年中国货币政策的三个 “锚”

Philadelphia Fed President Harker believes that the pace of economic slowdown in the United States seems to be faster than the government data shows. While the Fed does need to start cutting interest rates, there is no need to take immediate action.

Dovish officials refute optimistic market expectations: Rate cuts are necessary, but not immediate

Micron Tech's revenue for the first quarter of the fiscal year exceeded the company's revised guidance, while the loss was lower than expected and narrowed by 21% compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the revenue for the second quarter will increase by up to nearly 50% beyond expectations, and the EPS loss will narrow by up to 80% beyond expectations. Micron Tech stated that memory chip prices will rise in the next two years, and high-bandwidth memory revenue for this fiscal year is expected to reach hundreds of millions of dollars.

Chip recovery is improving, Micron Tech's previous quarter's revenue exceeded expectations by nearly 16%, and this quarter's guidance is even stronger. After the market closed, the stock jumped more than 5% | Earnings Report

摩根士丹利投资管理公司的 Jim Caron 表示，该公司正准备迎接未来 “艰难” 的一年。但部分一贯看涨的人士，包括 Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC 的 Tom Lee、Oppenheimer Asset Management 的 John Stoltzfus 和 BMO Capital Markets 的 Brian Belski 却预计会反弹，理由是过度悲观。Carson Group Holdings LLC 的 Ryan Detrick 预计经济表现坚韧将推动股市上涨，此外美国银行的 Savita Subramanian 年中掉头看多，从者如云。

押中美股反弹的少数机构预计 2024 年还能进一步上涨

The three major US stock indexes all fell more than 1%, with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones experiencing the largest decline in at least two months. The Dow Jones ended its five-day streak of hitting new all-time highs. FedEx shares fell 12% after the earnings report, leading the decline in the S&P 500. Tesla dropped nearly 4%, while Alphabet-C bucked the trend and rose more than 1%. Nvidia fell over 3%, marking its largest decline in nearly two months. Micron shares briefly jumped more than 5% after the earnings report. Chinese concept stocks retreated, with a decline of over 3%. NIO-SW fell 10% and Gaotu Education dropped 12%. UK stocks rose 1% after the release of the CPI data. The yield on 10-year UK bonds dropped more than 10 basis points, hitting an eight-month low, while the yield on 10-year German bonds fell below 2.0% for the first time in nine months. The yield on 10-year US bonds fell below 3.90% for several consecutive days, hitting a five-month low, and the yield on 2-year US bonds dropped more than 10 basis points. The British pound hit a new daily low, moving away from the high it reached after last week's Federal Reserve meeting. The US dollar index rebounded. Offshore renminbi fell more than 300 points, breaking through the 7.15 level. Crude oil rose for the third consecutive day, hitting a new high for the month before retreating. Gold and London copper fell from their two-week highs.

US stocks plummeted in the afternoon, with SPDR S&P 500 experiencing its largest decline in nearly three months. The Nasdaq ended its nine-day winning streak. UK inflation slowed down, and UK bonds surged.

提醒：12 月 21 日，将是特斯拉（TSLA）被纳入标普 500 指数的三周年。这段时间以来，特斯拉累计上涨 6.7%，标普 500 指数同期累涨 27.16%。

CME 比特币期货 BTC 和以太币期货 DCR 价格都有所上涨，欧股数字货币概念股中，Coinshares International Ltd.和 Northern Data AG 股价上涨，而 Safello Group AB 股价下跌。