2024 年 1 月，中国 TOP100 房地产企业拿地总额为 856 亿元，同比增长 44.8%。这主要是因为 2023 年 1 月供应量回落，企业拿地基数较小，以及 2023 年 10 月以来 22 个城市陆续取消土地限价，带动土地热度回升，房企拿地意愿恢复。

机构：1 月 TOP100 房企拿地总额同比大幅增长超 44%

* 大摩相信药明合联股价 30 日内将升

中国 1 月财新制造业 PMI 50.8，前值 50.8。

港股科网股走强，哔哩哔哩涨超 5%，快手涨近 3%，美团、百度等跟涨。

港股汽车股回弹造好，理想汽车涨近 4%，小鹏汽车涨超 2%，零跑汽车、吉利汽车等跟涨。

亚洲股市下跌，美国国债持稳，美联储淡化 3 月降息预期。纽约社区银行暴跌引发对美国地区性银行的担忧。隔夜美股创下逾四个月最大跌幅，科技股领跌。澳大利亚和日本股市下跌，美股期指小幅走高。10 年期美国国债收益率下跌 12 个基点，对地区银行的新担忧加剧了对经济的忧虑。

亚市早盘：亚洲股市下跌 美联储淡化 3 月降息预期

Goldman Sachs has revised its expectation for the timing of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve from March to May, but still anticipates a total of five rate cuts by 2024.

Goldman Sachs: Expects the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to be postponed until May.

Various signs indicate that liquidity risks may concentrate and erupt in the future. Powell stated that a thorough discussion on the balance sheet issue will begin in March.

Before SVB Financial's first anniversary, another small bank in the United States has collapsed. Is the "March drama" of the Federal Reserve starting early?

1 月份，银行股表现强劲，中证银行指数大涨 6.33%，中信银行更是领跑银行股涨幅达到 18%。市场人士认为，去年末市场悲观情绪过度，影响了银行股表现，但随着新年的到来以及提振经济的举措出台，银行股走强符合预期。股份制银行的涨势与市场低风险偏好有关，投资者更倾向于低估值、高股息的银行。

1 月，银行股发生了什么？

The Federal Reserve hints at no immediate action, with Powell stating that there is unlikely to be an interest rate cut in March. Tesla plans to open a new battery factory in Nevada. NetEase's first native Hongmeng game, "Qian Nv You Hun," has completed development for mobile. Huawei and JAC Motors collaborate on their first car, a million-yuan-level sedan. Walmart makes a major shift in its store strategy, planning to significantly increase the number of stores within 5 years. New Oriental EDU & Tech and Yu Minhong commit to purchasing a total of HKD 700 million worth of EAST BUY selected shares at market price. Pharmaron expects its sales revenue to double by 2023.

Breakfast | The Federal Reserve's heavy blow to March rate cut expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes recorded the largest single-day decline of the year.

彭博汇编数据显示，安踏旗下亚玛芬体育通过美国 IPO 募资 13 亿美元，创 2023 年 9 月份德国制鞋公司 Birkenstock Holdings Plc.美国 IPO 以来最大规模的 IPO——当时募资 14.8 亿美元。

亚玛芬体育通过美国 IPO 融资 13 亿美元，创 9 月以来最大规模 IPO

NYCB unexpectedly reported a loss in the fourth quarter and announced a drastic cut of over two-thirds in dividends. This is due to the acquisition of Signature Bank, which collapsed in March last year, and NYCB's management of assets exceeding $100 billion, which needs to meet new regulatory requirements. NYCB's stock price experienced its largest decline since its listing; the U.S. regional bank index fell nearly 5% in early trading, marking the largest intraday decline in eight months.

Bank of America remains fragile, regional bank NYCB's earnings report falls short, with a sharp drop of over 40% during trading.

The Federal Reserve continued to hold steady as expected, with this statement removing the wording that implied further interest rate hikes. It stated that the Fed expects it is not appropriate to lower rates until it has more confidence in reaching its inflation target. The statement also removed comments on the soundness of the banking system and the potential impact of tightening financial conditions on the economy, and added that the risks to the employment and inflation goals are becoming more balanced. This assessment of the economy changed from "slowed in the third quarter" to "healthy expansion," and it reiterated that the balance sheet reduction will continue as planned. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" stated that the Fed removed the guidance that had kept the possibility of rate hikes for the past six months, and the new guidance is flexible, while also implying that a change in guidance does not mean that rate cuts are imminent.

Pouring cold water on the recent interest rate cut! The Federal Reserve opens the door to rate cuts, but suggests that it will not act quickly.

Tech stocks plummeted before the market opened, with AMD down 7%, Alphabet-C down over 5%, NVIDIA, Tesla, Meta, and Amazon down over 2%, Microsoft down over 1%, and Apple down less than 1%; Chinese concept stock XPENG-W fell nearly 4%, JD.com, Nio, Bilibili fell over 2%, BABA-SWR, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, NetEase, and BIDU-SW fell over 1%.

Pre-market US stocks | AMD, Alphabet-C lead the decline in technology stocks! Market focus on tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Tony Saliba, the legendary options trading master, is a "maverick" in the field of options trading, using "one-lot" options to achieve millions of wealth!

Character | Saliba, the option master who has made over $100,000 for 70 consecutive months

Bernstein has lowered its target price for Alibaba from $93 to $85. CICC has lowered its target price for Tencent from HKD 418 to HKD 407. Bank of America has lowered its target price for Tesla from $290 to $280. Huatai Securities has lowered its target price for Meituan by 24.35% to HKD 125.2.

Rating Quick Look | Target prices for BABA-SWR, TENCENT, Tesla, JD, Meituan, and KUAISHOU-W have all been lowered!

The World Gold Council stated that the expectation of interest rate cuts, the frenzy of over-the-counter trading, and central bank gold purchases are expected to offset the weakness of gold ETFs and provide strong upward momentum for gold prices. The price of gold per ounce is expected to reach $2,200 or higher.

World Gold Council: With support from central bank purchases, gold is expected to continue to reach new historical highs in 2024.

Tech stocks are falling before the market opens, with AMD down more than 7% and Alphabet-C down more than 5%.

Hot discussion on WSB | AMD, Alphabet-C leading the tech stock crash

The top seven most active overnight trading contracts are all related to Tesla: The contracts expiring on February 2nd with strike prices of $200 and $195 saw trading volumes of over 170,000 and 150,000 respectively, while the contract with a strike price of $190 saw trading volume of 100,000!

US Stock Options | AMD and NVIDIA trading volume skyrocketed! Tesla's seven contracts exploded

华尔街认为，美联储可能不会在本次利率决议上发出明确的降息信号。此外，美联储是否会讨论何时缩减 QT，以及 FOMC 票委 “大换血” 均备受市场关注。

前瞻 | 今夜，美联储 “按兵不动” 几成定局！

最高法、最高检联合发布《关于执行〈中华人民共和国刑法〉确定罪名的补充规定》。从最高检了解到，《补充规定》根据刑法修正案，修改调整 1 个罪名，即将 “徇私舞弊低价折股、出售国有资产罪” 调整为 “徇私舞弊低价折股、出售公司、企业资产罪”。

“两高” 修改调整一项罪名：“贱卖” 公司、企业资产也将入罪

Qualifications for the position have been approved by regulators.

Citigroup officially announces the appointment of Lu Xuan as President of Citigroup

JPMorgan Chase points out that the overall rise in the US stock market relies heavily on a few super-weighted stocks, which poses significant risks to the stock market in 2024.

JPMorgan Chase: Similarity between the current situation and the 2000 dot-com bubble is much higher than you think

2024 年，机器人领域迎来大爆发，受到全球关注。2023 年底，人形机器人公司优必选上市，引发了机器人领域的热潮。斯坦福团队的 Mobile ALOHA 机器人能够自主炒菜、擦桌子、按电梯，成功率高达 90%。越来越多的机器人公司朝着通用型机器人的目标研发，利用大模型技术使机器人具备更深入的智能。2024 年将会是人形机器人真正走向市场的一年。

2024 年的机器人，下一个 ChatGPT

房屋局局长何永贤表示，留意有建议要求政府全面「撤辣」，但强调目前的「减辣」措施是经过政府审慎评估整体经济及市场下作出最务实的安排。

立法会三读通过楼市「减辣」措施

“木头姐” 凯茜·伍德的方舟投资管理公司周二暂停购买自己的现货比特币 ETF，即 Ark 21Shares 比特币 ETF。自 1 月 18 日以来，该基金一直在买入这只 ETF。自 1 月 11 日首日交易以来， ARKB 已下跌约 6.74%。

“木头姐” 暂停购买自家比特币 ETF

Novo Nordisk AS released its annual report, with a total revenue of DKK 232.26 billion, a YoY growth of 31%; net profit was DKK 83.68 billion, a YoY growth of 51%.

Lose 15 kilograms with one shot! Weight loss miracle drug company Nord earns 83.6 billion

In 2023, Samsung Electronics' revenue and operating profit for the full year basically met expectations. However, the operating profit in the fourth quarter plummeted by 85% to the level of the 2008 financial crisis. It is expected that the chip business will turn losses into profits in the first quarter of this year.

Terminal demand is weak, Samsung Electronics' chip business Q4 net profit plummeted by 74%, but future chip demand looks promising.

德银推荐了两只高股息的美股，Omega Healthcare Investors 和 American Campus Communities。这两只股票在未来一年有较大上涨潜力，股息收益率至少达到 9%。Omega Healthcare Investors 是一家房地产投资信托基金，专注于医疗保健设施的租赁和管理。American Campus Communities 则是一家专注于大学生宿舍的房地产投资信托基金。这些股票的推荐来自德意志银行的 Omotayo Okusanya。

股息投资者看过来！德银：这两只高股息美股值得关注

曾准确预测 1987 年美股崩盘的波浪理论大师普雷切特认为，当前美股市场状况与 1929 年华尔街股灾前类似，如果出现 30% 的回调不会让他感到意外。什么迹象值得担忧？

可能暴跌 30%！为什么美股又危险了？

The market's most dazzling stars may change their stocks

Dong Chengfei: Real estate is likely to hit bottom around 2024, and small-cap stocks may shine in the future.

According to media reports, executives at Meta Platforms have informed employees in the Reality Labs department that the company will cease developing "enhanced features" for future AR devices.

With the "new love" AI, Meta Platforms is abandoning the metaverse.

小米汽车首款车 SU7 将于 2 月中下旬正式进入 SOP 阶段，启动批量生产。SOP 后首月，即 3 月产量计划在 2000 辆左右，并且有望在 2024 年中完成产能爬坡，7 月产量可达万辆以上。

小米汽车计划 2 月量产，预计 7 月可月产万辆

小米汽车计划 2 月量产，3 月产量计划在 2000 辆左右，预计 7 月可月产万辆！分析称，2000 多辆的月产量，在 SOP 的初步阶段属于正常水准，有把握、不激进。

小米汽车最新消息来了！

BOCOM INTL believes that 2024 will be a more challenging year for the new energy passenger vehicle market. The bank believes that XPENG-W may struggle to stand alone and that its gross profit turnaround may fall short of market expectations.

Understanding the Market | Why did XPeng-W drop nearly 6%?

舜宇光学科技港股跌幅进一步扩大至 15%，领跌恒指成分股，刷新 2017 年以来新低，成交额达 7.7 亿港元。

亚洲股市多数下跌，市场等待美联储决议。微软、Alphabet 和 AMD 的财报未达预期，导致亚洲科技股下挫。三星电子的利润下降也影响了市场情绪。澳大利亚通胀降温，预计澳元将下跌，股市有望创下新高。美元指数上涨，导致 G10 货币和亚币普遍下挫。日本央行委员的意见暗示加息，稍后又回落。原油期货上涨，黄金下跌。以上为当前市场情况摘要。

亚市午盘：亚股多数下跌 市场静待美联储决议

微软、谷歌和 AMD 三家公司在融合 AI 技术与产品上下的功夫，但发现却很难取悦投资者。三家科技巨头公布 2023 年最后三个月的业绩和当季指引后，股价纷纷在周二盘后下跌。投资者将这些公司的股价推升至纪录高位，但周二各大公司的信息却不足以满足投资者的期望。微软和谷歌是人工智能软件和云计算领域的两家竞争对手，财报中传递的大多也是好消息，但仍被投资者冷眼以对。

微软、谷歌和 AMD 大谈 AI 业务进展 却仍满足不了投资者胃口

Alphabet-C's advertising revenue in the fourth quarter fell short of expectations, causing concerns in the market about social media platforms that also rely on advertising revenue, leading to a decline in Meta Platforms' stock price. Microsoft has disclosed more information about the highly anticipated Copilot generative AI tool. Although AMD has raised its revenue guidance for AI chips, it still falls short of Wall Street's expectations.

What did the giants say about Microsoft's AI, Alphabet-C dragging down Meta Platforms' stock price, and AMD's lower-than-expected expectations in the conference call?

港股科网股震荡走弱，美团跌近 4%，京东跌超 3%，哔哩哔哩、快手等跟跌。

澳新银行前瞻美联储利率决议。市场密切关注 3 月份的降息讨论，预计鲍威尔将发出降息信号。第四季度的疲软 PCE 指数可能无法持续，美联储预计将在夏季开始降息。即将公布的数据将决定转向时机，春季开始降息需谨慎。

澳新银行前瞻美联储利率决议：若降息迫在眉睫，鲍威尔将发出信号

Average interest rates are higher, and banks are aggressively reclaiming the "demand deposit wealth management" market.

在谷歌业绩会上谈及搜索生成体验功能时，谷歌 CEO 桑达尔·皮查伊表示 ，随着时间推移，该功能将与传统搜索助手互补。未来，谷歌会在 Assistant 中集成人工智能技术，在 Bard 上采用最先进的模型等等。皮查伊表示，相信未来随着时间的推移，谷歌能为用户提供的远不止 “检索结果”，而是更多的后续服务。

谷歌 CEO：搜索生成体验将与传统搜索助手互补 未来能提供的远不止 “搜索结果”

$90 billion AI giant "A splits H" IPO launched: iFlytek Medical submits application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange

微软发布了 2024 财年第二财季财报，营收同比增长 18%，净利润同比增长 33%。微软高管在财报电话会议上解读财报要点，谈到了 Azure 云业务的稳定增长和人工智能部分的增长潜力。萨提亚·纳德拉表示，大部分营收贡献来自与推理服务功能相关的业务，而大型语言模型训练在营收中占比很小。微软的股价在财报发布后下跌了 2%。

微软高管解读 Q2 财报：下半财年将坚持提升 AI 相关业务的贡献占比

阿里巴巴集团旗下阿里云发布了无伺服器版本的 AI 平台 - 弹性算法服务（PAI-EAS），为个人和企业提供低成本、高效益的模型部署和推理解决方案。该平台让用户按需使用计算资源，无需管理或维护实体或虚拟服务器，相比传统定价模式，可节省 50% 的推理成本。PAI-EAS 现已进入邀测阶段，将来还会拓展支持部署主流开源大语言模型。

阿里云推无伺服器 AI 平台弹性算法服务

微软、Alphabet 和 AMD 盘后发布的季度财报未能打动投资者！

美股 AI 股市值一夜缩水 1900 亿美元！

* 大摩相信拼多多股价 30 日内将跑赢大市

中国 1 月官方制造业 PMI 49.2，前值 49。 中国 1 月官方非制造业 PMI 50.7，前值 50.4。 中国 1 月官方综合 PMI 50.9，前值 50.3。

Wall Street has been predicting that AMD's sales of AI chips will reach $8 billion by 2024. In comparison, NVIDIA's data center sales could exceed $16 billion in the current quarter alone.