美银 Hartnett 总结了美股科技股、大宗商品和美元同时走强的情况，并指出这在过去 60 年中只发生过 5 年。这些年份都与刺激引发的繁荣、新冠疫情、泡沫和拐点有关。这种情况很奇怪，可能意味着当前经济的不稳定性。

美银 Hartnett 认为二季度风险资产的市场环境将从 “经济好消息=利好” 变为 “经济好消息=利空”。比特币原油居首，区域银行股和清洁能源股跌幅最大。他列出了美国市场二季度 “四大反向交易”。

特斯拉下调中美欧市场售价，全系在中国大陆地区降价 1.4 万元！周末的降价策略表明，特斯拉担心需求下降得太快。现在，投资者的目光都聚焦在将于 4 月 23 日举行的特斯拉第一季度财报电话会议上，他们想知道特斯拉准备如何重振业绩。

解读公司 | 特斯拉再次开打价格战？

几乎与 2021 年 12 月底的峰值相差无几的位置上，美股成长股（图为 SPYG，代表标普成长股 ETF）会 “二次见顶” 吗？

周二至周五，特斯拉、Meta、微软、谷歌、英特尔等公司将发布业绩报告。此信息属于公司财务相关信息，主要概括了各公司的业绩报告发布计划。

提醒：特斯拉、Meta、微软、谷歌、英特尔将发布业绩报告

特斯拉 CEO 马斯克主张优先开发无人驾驶出租车（RoboTaxi），而非 2.5 万美元的 Model 车型。马斯克已推动裁员 20%。本周将发布一季报。

报道：马斯克主张优先开发 RoboTaxi，特斯拉 2.5 万美元车型悬了？

中国驻美大使谢锋在哈佛肯尼迪中国论坛上发表演讲，希望中美双方按照相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，探索新时期的正确相处之道。他强调了共同树立正确认知、有效管控分歧、推进互利合作、承担大国责任以及促进人文交流的重要性。

中国驻美大使：希望美方同中方相向而行探索相处之道

当前已有超 40 座城市阶段性取消首套房贷款利率下限。福建福州、安徽芜湖、山东济宁、青岛、烟台、江西南昌、赣州、九江和新余、辽宁沈阳、本溪、丹东、锦州、辽阳、广东潮州、汕尾等城市均宣布取消首套房贷款利率下限。广东省目前已有 15 个城市取消首套房贷款利率下限。截至目前，广东 15 个城市首套房贷款主流利率执行水平在 LPR-40BP 至 LPR-70BP 之间。

当前已有超 40 座城市阶段性取消首套房贷款利率下限

中国发展低空经济具备 “后发优势”，有望成为战略性新兴产业。预计政策支持和技术进展将推动低空飞行器市场快速发展。与新能源汽车产业链相结合，中国有望在全球产业竞争中占据领先地位。

中信证券：当下的低空经济可类比 2012 年新能源汽车

In March, the PCE price index in the United States may continue to remain high, becoming a focus of market attention. It is expected that the PCE index will accelerate slightly to 2.6% year-on-year, while the core PCE is expected to remain at 0.3% month-on-month. Compared to CPI data, PCE data suggests that inflation may be more moderate. This data may have an impact on the Fed's policy outlook, supporting keeping interest rates unchanged for a longer period of time. The market generally believes that the U.S. economy remains resilient, with no immediate urgency for interest rate cuts

Will the "Fed's favorite inflation gauge" save US stocks next week?

Micron Technology and TSMC collaborate to produce HBM4 chips, with the goal of mass production starting in 2026. SK Hynix is a leader in the HBM field and partners with NVIDIA to supply AI chips. The collaboration will enhance the competitiveness of custom memory platforms and strengthen SK Hynix's market-leading position as a comprehensive AI memory supplier. TSMC's advanced packaging technology helps HBM chips and Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) work efficiently together. SK Hynix is expected to supply NVIDIA with more advanced HBM3e chips this year

Micron and TSMC collaborate to produce HBM 4

Next week, the US stock earnings season is about to begin, with approximately 178 S&P 500 index component companies set to announce their performance. Among them, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and Google's parent company Alphabet, which make up over 40% of the S&P 500 market value, will release their earnings reports. According to media think tank data, the profits of the tech seven giants are expected to soar by 38% in the first quarter, while excluding these seven companies, the profits of the remaining companies in the S&P 500 index are projected to decline by 3.9%. Wall Street is not so optimistic about the earnings season, but if the performance of US stock companies is impressive, it will help boost market confidence

How crucial are next week's US stock earnings reports? Four out of the seven giants, which account for 40% of the S&P 500 market value, will take the stage!

In the era of large models, small companies may be marginalized, but small models will create new opportunities for them. Morgan Stanley believes that NVIDIA is the key to future computing power growth. Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft will be beneficiaries in the development of large models. Morgan Stanley has given these large tech companies an overweight rating. The development of large models will require unprecedented computing power, posing a huge challenge for small companies. Morgan Stanley's report points out that the cost of developing large models is high, and barriers such as chip technology and artificial intelligence technology have increased, posing significant obstacles to entering the field of large models. Future computing power will experience exponential growth, and NVIDIA's chip technology is one of the key drivers of computing power growth

In the era of large models, are small companies sidelined?

纳斯达克综合指数连续第四周下跌，下跌 5.52%，为自 2022 年 12 月以来最长连续下跌。Meta 因荷兰隐私监管机构的警告，可能被迫停止使用 Facebook，导致股价暴跌。美股正面临通胀问题，可能引发经济衰退，类似 2008 年的情况。荷兰政府也表示可能停止使用 Facebook。总之，短期利空对美股影响较大，而通胀可能成为引发经济衰退的因素。

刚刚！万亿巨头，突传重大利空！

US technology stocks encountered selling pressure this week, as Wall Street prepares for the earnings reports of tech giants next week. It is expected that the "Big Seven" (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) will see a significant 38% increase in first-quarter profits. Investors have high expectations for earnings and guidance, and if the financial results disappoint, the market may further enter oversold territory. This week, the market capitalization of the "Big Seven" evaporated by $950 billion, with Nvidia experiencing the largest loss in market value. Analysts expect tech stock earnings reports to be a key catalyst driving the rise of US tech stocks. Meanwhile, some companies like ASML and TSMC have already released unfavorable signals

US tech stocks are plummeting, next week's financial report will be crucial

This week, the combined market value of the "Seven Sisters" evaporated by $950 billion, with Nvidia suffering the most severe market value loss. Tesla's stock price led the decline, plummeting by over 14% this week. Nvidia's stock price tumbled by 13.6%, resulting in a market value loss of nearly $300 billion, far exceeding its competitor AMD

AMD dropped by one! Nvidia's market value evaporated by $300 billion this week, and the "Seven Sisters of the US Stock Market" experienced the worst week in history

公募基金降佣落地，券商需依靠投研能力取胜。基金公司将更重视固收 +、资产配置型和 ETF 等产品，同时寻求业务多元化。《公开募集证券投资基金证券交易费用管理规定》自 7 月 1 日起正式实施，明确了交易佣金费率水平和分配比例上限等要求。此举标志着公募基金行业费改第二阶段举措正式落地，综合费率水平将继续下降。同时，第三阶段的基金销售环节收费和其他配套改革措施正在推进中。

中金：公募降佣落地，券商未来靠投研能力取胜

Bitcoin has completed its fourth "halving" in history, leading to a decline in Bitcoin prices. Morgan Stanley predicts that the "halving" will impact Bitcoin miners, potentially triggering industry consolidation and a wave of mine closures. Previous "halving" events have affected both Bitcoin prices and the number of addresses, but market observers believe that the impact of this "halving" has already been digested by the market. Morgan Stanley analysts expect Bitcoin to be under pressure in the short term

Bitcoin completes its fourth "halving" in history

Super Micro Computer's stock price plummeted by 20%, Nvidia tumbled by 10%, and ARM dropped nearly 17%. Super Micro Computer is set to announce its third-quarter earnings on April 30, but has not provided a positive pre-announcement, causing concerns among investors. Super Micro Computer is a company that manufactures computers and sells them to enterprises, with strong demand for its servers in the market. Its stock price has surged in recent years, but Friday's sharp decline made it the biggest loser among the S&P 500 index components

AI craze cools down! "Tenfold stock of the year" AMD plunges 20%, Nvidia tumbles 10%, ARM also collapses

香港会计及财务汇报局将调查普华永道审计恒大失败的举报信。举报信指控普华永道存在质量管理和审计程序问题，会计局将对涉事的事务所及个人采取严厉执法行动。普华永道回应称将对此事进行调查。此举引起了公众对会计专业诚信的关注。

香港会财局调查普华永道，恒大地产 2 年虚增收入 5600 亿元

BLOCKCHAIN.COM 称比特币已经减半。

Tech stocks experienced a "Black Friday" last Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling for six consecutive days. Nvidia dropped by 10%, while Netflix fell by 9%. Gold and crude oil saw a rise followed by a fall. Comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations of a rate cut, and the decline in tech stocks also put pressure on the overall market. These are all fluctuations in stock prices

Tech stocks experience "Black Friday"! The S&P and Nasdaq both fell for the sixth consecutive day, with Nvidia plunging 10% and Netflix plummeting 9%. Middle East risks eased, while gold and crude oil surged before pulling back

美联储发布的半年度金融稳定性报告指出，持续的通胀是金融稳定的主要风险之一，对冲基金的杠杆率也创下自 2013 年以来的新高。报告还提及了地缘政治问题和 2024 年美国总统大选。尽管报告没有发现广泛的金融风险，但美联储官员认为经济需要放缓，以实现可持续的通胀回升。

美联储金融稳定报告：通胀被视作头号风险，对冲基金杠杆率创 2013 年以来新高

Super Micro Computer(SMCI) fell 23.14%, with a trading turnover 13.3 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 151.1%. ARM(ARM) fell 16.9%, with a trading turnover 2.7 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 16%. NVIDIA(NVDA) fell 10%, with a trading turnover 69.4 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 53.9%.

Top 10 US Stock Losers (4.19)

American Express(AXP) rose 6.23%, with a trading turnover 1.7 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 24.2%. Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR) rose 5.71%, with a trading turnover 558.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 3.1%. NVIDIA(NVDA) fell 10%, with a trading turnover 69.4 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 53.9%. Netflix(NFLX) fell 9.09%, with a trading turnover 9.2 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 14%.

Top 5 US Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (4.19)

Bit Digital(BTBT) rose 2.59%, with a trading turnover 10.1 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 53.2%. Lufax(LU) rose 1.64%, with a trading turnover 6.3 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 41.4%. Canaan(CAN) fell 18.25%, with a trading turnover 16.2 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 67.4%. Li Auto(LI) fell 9.6%, with a trading turnover 328.9 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 29.5%.

Top 5 CDRs Gainers/Losers (>100M) (4.19)

Mobile-Health Network Solutions(MNDR) rose 33.87%, with a trading turnover 267.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 581.8%. Paramount Global(PARA) rose 13.4%, with a trading turnover 555.4 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 15.6%. Riot Platforms(RIOT) rose 10.13%, with a trading turnover 227.6 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 41%.

Top 10 US Stock Gainers (4.19)

美国商品期货交易委员会：截至 2024 年 4 月 16 日当周，比特币净空头头寸为-363 份合约。

Google's algorithm is being overwhelmed by AI-driven search engine optimization, leading to more and more overseas users turning to TikTok and Reddit for searches. AI-generated junk and low-quality content are preventing people from finding what they are looking for, and Google's algorithm is unable to identify these issues. Despite Google's long-standing dominance in the global search market, its search results are becoming increasingly poor. Google is working hard to address this issue, but users are increasingly distrustful of its reliability. Especially when looking for product information, spam rankings always surpass genuine information

Is it all AI's fault? More and more overseas users are abandoning Google and turning to TikTok and Reddit to search for answers

Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving, but Deutsche Bank believes that the market has already partially priced it in, so there won't be a significant surge. Historically, Bitcoin prices have risen after halving events, but recently, the correlation with stock indices has weakened, reducing the spillover effects. Currently, there are 19.7 million Bitcoins in circulation, and the halving process will continue until the year 2140. Bitcoin Cash saw a 12% price increase after its halving, making the halving event a positive for Bitcoin Cash

Bitcoin is expected to halve on Saturday. Deutsche Bank: The market has partially priced it in and is not expected to surge significantly

Lei Jun baptized the automotive industry with an internet marketing approach, triggering imitation from other automotive giants. During the live broadcast, Lei Jun showcased Xiaomi's car and promoted it. Other automotive giants also joined the live streaming trend one after another, trying to attract more consumer attention. This phenomenon was not common in the past, hence it has attracted widespread attention. It indicates that automotive giants are gradually moving from behind the scenes to the forefront, becoming the spokespersons for their own company products

Lei Jun leads the live streaming trend among industry leaders

中核钛白违规减持大案处罚落地！中信证券、中信中证、海通证券等涉入其中。预计罚款总额 1.55 亿元，没收总额合计 7753.2 万元。案件经过显示，中核钛白非公开发行 A 股股票申请获批后，中信中证向实际控制人王泽龙推荐定增多空方案。王泽龙决定实施定增套利，与中信中证和中信证券商议定增融券套利业务。中信中证还就挂钩 “中核钛白” 非公开发行股票的收益互换业务与海通证券沟通。这起大案的处罚结果将对相关企业产生重大影响。

中核钛白违规减持大案处罚落地！两大龙头券商，多位个人拟被重罚

MicroStrategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 今年已抛售 37 万股公司股票，进账 3.7 亿美元。这是一个及时的协议，截至本周，Saylor 已经出售了 37 万股股票，总价值 3.727 亿美元，归功于 MicroStrategy 股价的飙升。Saylor 持有的 A 类股已降至 3 万股。

MicroStrategy 创始人今年已抛售 37 万股票 进账 3.7 亿美元

Wang Jianlin sold the headquarters of Wanda to ease Wanda's liquidity pressure. There has been a business change in Beijing Wanda Plaza Industrial Co., Ltd., the owner of Beijing Wanda Plaza, with the new shareholders being Kunhua (Tianjin) Equity Investment Partnership Enterprise and Kunyuanchenxing (Xiamen) Investment Management Consulting. Although Wanda lost control of its core assets, Wang Jianlin managed to alleviate financial pressure by cooperating with Taimee, Middle Eastern tycoons, and others. He has shown determination to survive and protect his reputation, maintaining the dignity of a business tycoon

Wang Jianlin sold the entire headquarters of Wanda

European new car sales in March fell by 5.2% year-on-year, with pure electric new car sales dropping by 11.3% to 134,400 units. The electric car sales in the German market decreased by 29%. The market share of pure electric cars in the EU dropped from 13.9% in the same period last year to 13%. The market share of hybrid cars increased from 24.4% to 29%. Tesla's first-quarter deliveries decreased by 8.5% to approximately 386,800 units

Electric vehicle sales are weak, with new car sales in Europe declining for the first time this year in March

ZTE Microelectronics released its first quarter financial report for 2024, with both revenue and profit showing double-digit growth. In Q1, the company achieved operating income of 1.627 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.32%; net profit of 205 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 36.45%. The recovery of demand in the storage chip market served as the main driving force. The company gradually emerged from last year's difficulties in the first quarter, with a significant increase of 175.29% in net cash flow. Comprehensive gross profit margin improved, and expense control was effective. Total assets amounted to 17.066 billion RMB, with attributable equity to shareholders reaching 15.338 billion RMB, indicating a solid financial position. ZTE Microelectronics holds a leading position in the storage chip market

Demand for storage chips rebounds, Zilliant Innovation sees double growth in Q1 revenue and profit | Financial Report Insights

Netflix 公布了 2024 年第一季度财报，各项指标均超预期。营收达 93.7 亿美元，同比增长 14.8%；经营利润 26.33 亿美元，同比增长 54%；净利润 23.32 亿美元，同比增长 79%；每股收益 5.28 美元。本季度用户数增加了 933 万，总共达 2.696 亿。Netflix 将停止报告季度会员数量，将关注盈利能力。股价今年以来涨幅达 25.4%，超过迪士尼和华纳兄弟。

Netflix 不在乎会员数了？

Common Psychological Misconceptions: Simple Association Bias, Overconfidence Bias, Authoritarianism, and Group Identity Bias

Do not be swayed by emotions, objective evaluation is key to investment

Amid escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, Microstrategy surged 5%, Coinbase rose over 3%, and Marathon Digital rose over 2%. Netflix fell 6% and announced the cessation of quarterly subscription user numbers disclosure. Li Auto plummeted nearly 7%, while Nio and XPeng fell over 3%. Paramount Global surged over 10% on news that Sony and Apollo are in talks for a joint bid to acquire Paramount

Pre-market trading in US stocks | Li Auto, Netflix lead the decline! Cryptocurrency concept stocks surge!

美银美林发布研报，推测伊以冲突可能引发地区性战争，导致布油价格飙升至 150 美元，持续数月。这将使欧央行无法加息，美联储也将维持现状。当前中东地缘政治紧张局势成为全球经济的尾部风险，可能带来商品和货运成本飙升，对市场造成挑战。三种伊以冲突情景分别为有限冲突、直接冲突和地区战争，对油价影响不同。目前油价回落至 87.28 美元/桶，但进一步报复打击可能导致油价再次上涨。

油价冲 150 美元、欧央行或被迫加息！这家投行推演了伊以冲突的三种可能场景

Deutsche Bank downgraded Tesla's rating from "Buy" to "Hold", with a target price lowered from $189 to $123. They believe that the delay of Model 2 may result in Tesla's consumer product line lacking new cars in the foreseeable future, which will continue to exert downward pressure on Tesla's sales and pricing for many years to come, necessitating a downward revision of earnings expectations after 2026

Rating Quick Look | Tesla's rating and target price both significantly lowered! Tencent and Apple are viewed favorably

Deutsche Bank expects the price of gold to continue to rise, with a year-end forecast of $2400 per ounce and a forecast of $2600 per ounce by December 2025. This year's rise in gold prices is actually a recovery from the decline of the past decade, as excessive investment demand offset the significant redemptions of gold ETFs in 2013. The fair value model for gold shows that the price has recovered the debt of the past decade, and the year-end gold price forecast is in line with the actual increase. The trend of gold prices will mainly depend on the possibility of unwinding investment flows, with multiple factors favoring the price of gold

The fair value of gold, this model can explain! Is this year's rise in gold prices still due to the debt of the past decade?

In a recent 20,000-word interview, Mark Zuckerberg discussed Meta's launch of the Llama 3 models and the potential challenges in AI development, such as GPU supply, funding, and energy. He emphasized that the purpose of AI is to empower people with more powerful tools rather than replace humans. Furthermore, he mentioned that AI is transitioning from question-answering tools to reasoning systems, requiring an understanding of context, knowledge integration, and logical reasoning. For Meta, emotional understanding is an important area, and a breakthrough in this area could make interactions between humans and machines more natural and profound. The emergence of AI is expected to significantly improve the efficiency of programmers

Mark Zuckerberg's latest 20,000-word interview: The "most powerful open-source large model" Llama3 worth billions of dollars and everything behind it

美国银行牛熊指标从 5.2 降至 5.0。

美国银行：美股出现自 2022 年 12 月以来最大的两周资金流出。

CGN POWER(01816) rose 3.45%, with a trading turnover 325.9 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 32.4%. COSCO SHIP HOLD(01919) rose 3.01%, with a trading turnover 506.0 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 13.4%. LI AUTO-W(02015) fell 7.4%, with a trading turnover 1.7 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date fell 27.7%. CTG DUTY-FREE(01880) fell 4.82%, with a trading turnover 94.5 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 17.5%.

Top 5 HK Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (4.19)

WEIMOB INC(02013) fell 17.65%, with a trading turnover 126.6 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 61.1%. CITYCHAMP(00256) fell 13.73%, with a trading turnover 10.9 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 23.5%. ZA ONLINE(06060) fell 9.42%, with a trading turnover 130.4 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 37.4%.

Top 10 HK Stock Losers (4.19)

CHALIECO(02068) rose 12.89%, with a trading turnover 125.5 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 50%. PACIFIC BASIN(02343) rose 7.85%, with a trading turnover 215.2 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 1.6%. BOSIDENG(03998) rose 5.88%, with a trading turnover 382.8 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 23.1%.

Top 10 HK Stock Gainers (4.19)

Overnight hottest contract: Tesla put with an expiration date of April 19 and a strike price of $150, with a trading volume of nearly 230,000 contracts! TSMC options trading surged to 480,000 contracts, with call options accounting for 68%. Trump concept stock DJT options trading increased to 280,000 contracts, with put options accounting for 52%

US Stock Options | Tesla, Nvidia, Apple all see a decline in trading volume! TSMC and DJT are hot

Bitcoin's halving is expected to occur early Saturday morning Greenwich Mean Time. Morgan Stanley believes that after the halving, due to the market still being in an overbought state, the price of Bitcoin may fall. Deutsche Bank also does not believe that the price of Bitcoin will rise significantly after the halving, as this event has already been priced in by the market