12 名票委已有 5 人倾向 “不降息”，市场为美联储票委 “计票”，“鲍威尔现在不露面，就是为了让每个人声音被听到”

Disagreements within the Federal Reserve have intensified ahead of the December policy meeting, as Chairman Jerome Powell remains silent, and there is a clear division among voting committee members.

New York Fed President John Williams signaled support for a rate cut on Friday, while several policymakers had previously leaned towards not cutting rates. This statement has raised market expectations for a rate cut in December, with the probability of a cut indicated by federal funds futures rebounding from below 30% to over 60%.

Since the policy meeting on October 29, Powell has not made any public statements. Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 5 have expressed a preference to keep rates unchanged, creating a nearly even split, which means that regardless of the decision made on December 10, there may be dissenting votes.

This situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and curbing inflation. The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, further complicating policymaking.

Market Shifts to "Vote Counting" Mode

Investors are shifting from focusing on the overall consensus of the Federal Reserve to calculating the voting tendencies of individual policymakers. Before the October policy meeting, the market believed a rate cut in December was a done deal. However, with the emergence of hawkish voices, the probability of a rate cut briefly fell below 30%, and Williams' statement on Friday reversed the situation again.

This back-and-forth has disrupted the market's judgment on the next direction of interest rates. For a long time, the Fed has prided itself on consensus decision-making, which has been a hallmark of Powell's leadership since he took over in 2018. However, this model is currently facing a test.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, stated:

Powell's current absence is to allow each member of the Open Market Committee the opportunity to voice their opinions and be heard. He is giving them space to have these disagreements, which is actually a good thing because it is difficult, and you should have these debates.

Dissenting Votes Break Powell Era Record

Dissenting votes, once a rare phenomenon during Powell's era, have noticeably increased this year. Since June, the Fed's policy decisions have not been passed unanimously. Research shows that a low number of dissenting votes can convey decision-making confidence and ensure clear and effective communication, but critics argue that it can also lead to "groupthink" that suppresses important viewpoints.

"Those who accuse us of groupthink, please be prepared. You may see the least amount of groupthink in the Federal Open Market Committee in a long time," said Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday.

Waller and his colleague Michelle Bowman voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged in July, marking the first time in 32 years that two Fed governors voted against the chairman. At the September meeting, Governor Michelle Milan—nominated by Trump and joining the Fed board that month—voted against the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, advocating for a larger cut. At the October meeting, Milan again cast a dissenting vote, while Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted in the opposite direction, advocating to keep rates unchanged.

Doves Shift to Cautious Stance

An increasing number of policymakers have expressed concerns similar to George's. Among the 12 officials with voting rights this year, 5 have indicated a preference to keep rates unchanged next month. "We now need to be cautious with monetary policy," said Federal Reserve Governor Barr, who has previously leaned towards supporting the labor market, this week.

Other past doves have also hinted that they may be more inclined to keep interest rates unchanged next month. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has never cast a dissenting vote during his nearly three-year term, stated that he would do so if necessary. Goolsbee said during a press call on Thursday:

If I ultimately have a strong feeling in one direction, and it differs from others' views, then so be it. That's okay, I think it's healthy, and I don't see any problem with dissent.

He acknowledged that there have been more dissenting votes this year than in recent Fed history, but also called it healthy. Looking at a longer history, this is not without precedent. Dissenting votes were common during the Fed's significant interest rate hikes in the 1980s to combat high inflation and during the 1990s when many policymakers were concerned about excessive easing.

December Decision Becomes a "Coin Toss"

"Uncertainty is a common feature of macroeconomic and monetary policy-making," said Dallas Fed President Logan on Friday. "Policymakers cannot precisely understand the current state of every relevant aspect of the economy, let alone how different parts of the economy are functioning or what shocks may occur. But policymakers still have to make policy decisions."

The decision in December is becoming one of the closest votes in years. Some, like Deutsche Bank senior economist Brett Ryan, believe that Williams' remarks on Friday locked in a rate cut. But others are not so sure.

"I really think it's still a toss-up," Sahm said