当前过高的估值、过低的风险溢价意味着后续增长压力下可能面临扰动，但不至于趋势性逆转；预计后续道琼斯和标普 500 价值部分将承受盈利下调压力，静态测算标普 500 中枢位于 3900 点附近，较当前低 10%。

美联储加息 “停而不止”，对美股意味着什么？

大和资本：将特斯拉目标价从 185 美元上调至 285 美元。

继公开市场逆回购、各期限常备借贷便利操作后，中期借贷便利操作也跟随下调 10 个基点。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，MLF 操作利率是 LPR 报价的定价基础，6 月 MLF 操作利率下调后，当月两个品种的 LPR 报价也将跟进下调。“考虑到当前企业贷款利率已处于历史低点，且明显低于居民房贷利率，加之近期楼市再度转弱，我们判断 6 月 1 年期 LPR 报价和 5 年期以上 LPR 报价有可能出现非对称下调，即 1 年期 LPR 报价可能下调 0.05 个百分点，5 年期以上 LPR 报价下调 0.15 个百分点。这将带动企业和居民贷款利率、特别是居民房贷利率更大幅下调。

分析师：6 月 LPR 报价有可能出现非对称下调

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，随着创新驱动战略深入实施，产业升级扎实推进，新动能较快成长，对工业生产支撑不断增强。尤其是我国高度重视制造业发展，深入实施制造强国战略，各项促进制造业发展政策措施逐步显效，将有利于工业持续健康发展。比如，近年来我国积极支持新能源相关制造业发展，效果不断显现。今年以来，我国新能源汽车生产和出口都实现大幅增长，市场竞争力稳步增强。

国家统计局：今年以来，我国新能源汽车生产和出口都实现大幅增长

近期，在美股强势而 AH 股表现相对较弱的背景下，港股较美股的 “便宜程度” 再次触及 2017 年以来的历史波动范围的上限。在假设该比例历史波动范围不会被持续突破的前提下，该指标可能意味着：在目前的经济环境下，美股持续大幅走高（在盈利不大幅上修的情况下意味着估值持续走高）而与此同时港股持续大幅走弱（在盈利不大幅下修的情况下意味着估值持续走弱）的可能性是较低的。本文来源：华尔街见闻转载自中银证券

港股较美股 “便宜程度” 再次触及历史较高水平

港股生物技术股走高，云顶新耀涨超 17%，歌礼制药、康希诺生物涨超 5%，泰格医药涨 4.7%。

中国 5 月规模以上工业增加值同比 3.5%，预期 3.5%，前值 5.6%。

36 氪获悉，亚马逊云科技在 re:Inforce 2023 全球大会上宣布，推出十多项安全新服务及功能，包括 Amazon Verified Permissions 正式可用、扩展 Amazon Detective 发现组的范围、Amazon Inspector 全面支持 Lambda 函数的代码扫描、推出 Amazon CodeGuru Security 预览版以及 Amazon Build-in Partner Solutions 预览版等。

亚马逊云科技在 re:Inforce 2023 全球大会上推出众多安全服务及功能

The People's Bank of China conducted a 1-year MLF operation of CNY 237 billion, with a winning bid rate of 2.65%, down 10 basis points.

"Rate cut"! The People's Bank of China has lowered the MLF rate by 10 basis points and injected a net of 37 billion yuan.

高盛、花旗集团开始在亚洲投行部门裁员 35 人。

据美国科技媒体 TechCrunch 报道，法庭文件显示，因欠房东三个月的租金，法官已批准将推特逐出其在博尔德的办公室。对此，推特没有回应置评请求。自从被马斯克收购以来，推特的业务或多或少陷入了混乱，出现了许多关于推特未付账单的报道。

美媒：推特因拖欠房租被逐出博尔德办公室

新加坡股市 14 日报：新加坡航空成交量狂飙

* 高盛下调京东健康目标价至 85 元 降阿里健康目标价至 6.

* 高盛下调京东健康目标价至 85 元  降阿里健康目标价至 6.1 元

港股开盘，恒指开涨 1.13%，科指开涨 1.87%。科网股走高，阿里巴巴涨 2.5%，腾讯控股涨 2%，美团涨 2.28%。

中信证券指出，当前股债性价比指标即将触及 “均值-2 倍标准差” 警戒线，显示当前股票市场的调整已经相对到位。不过，股债性价比指标向上的拐点通常出现在政策对经济产生实际刺激效果之时，而非政策出台的当下。

“股债性价比” 的拐点到了么？这是四个重要规律

Is PDD's "low price x social fission" strategy also effective in the United States?

"Slash and burn" unstoppable? Temu overtakes Shein in the US market

Larry Fink said that AI is the key to reducing inflation. It has enormous potential to increase productivity and can change the profit margins of various industries.

BlackRock CEO: AI is the key to reducing inflation.

Powell said, "It's like driving a car," where the issue of speed is different from the issue of the final level. For last year, "speed" was very important, but as we get closer to our destination, it's common sense to slow down.

Since the Fed is going to raise interest rates, why doesn't it do it all at once? Reporters are confused, and Powell made a crucial analogy.

点阵图暗指今年下半年还将加息 50bp，小超市场预期，鲍威尔表态更倾向于放慢紧缩节奏，践行 Higher for Longer。

美联储 6 月 FOMC 笔记：利率还能更高

相关人士表示，新分行旨在为中东地区提供人民币，希望其能用于中国与沙特以及整个阿拉伯地区之间的商业金融交易。

“中方与阿拉伯世界加强合作又一迹象”，中国银行今年将运营首家沙特分行

东吴证券表示，从前两次历史来看，在股债汇三类资产中，暂停加息最利好美股，而重启加息后美债收益率可能再次上涨。

美联储以 “跳” 为进，主要资产会如何定价？

美联储暂停加息，但点阵图较市场预期更为鹰派，美股收盘全线上涨。英伟达涨近 5%，苹果重返收盘最高，特斯拉终结 14 连涨。中概股普涨，理想汽车涨超 7%。美国国务卿即将访华。比尔·盖茨抵达北京，3 年多来首次访华。推特正在测试完全关闭谷歌云。阿里辟谣 “公关团队将独立运作”。美股期权买家抄底在美上市中国 ETF。

早餐 | 美联储主席暗示降息时间，谷歌面临分拆风险

路透纽约 6 月 14 日 - 最近几天，一些在美国上市的中国交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 (ETF) 的期权吸引到看涨资金流入，因为一些交易员利用对中国公司看涨情绪低迷的机会进行反向操作。

在美上市中国 ETF 近期表现低迷后，期权买家因反弹希望而入场

According to a media survey, over 70% of investors believe that the rate hike is not over yet, and 90% of investors expect the rate cut to begin next year. About 56% of people think that the rate cut will be in the second quarter of next year or later.

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According to a McKinsey study, the potential economic benefits of generative AI could reach $4.4 trillion, accounting for approximately 4.4% of current global economic output. The widespread use of AI technology will bring pressure to the labor market, especially for high-paid knowledge workers who were previously considered relatively immune to automation.

McKinsey: The biggest losers in the prosperity of artificial intelligence are knowledge workers.

June 14 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify at the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on June 21, panel Chair Patrick McHenry announced on Wednesday. It will be the first of two days of congressional hearings on the Fed’s twice-yearly report on U.S. monetary policy.

Fed Chair Powell to testify on June 21 at House panel

Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin said that the United States is unlikely to avoid an economic recession in 2024 and should be much more cautious about that year. Griffin believes that opportunities will come from the credit market. He is optimistic about China and expects the country's economy to grow by more than 5% this year.

New Hedge Fund King Griffin: US Unlikely to Avoid Recession Next Year, Optimistic About China

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference that almost all participants believe that further rate hikes are appropriate. The understanding of "pause" should not be interpreted as skipping the rate hike in June. The consensus within the Fed is to slightly slow down the pace of tightening as the Fed approaches its rate target. He said that the Fed is already very close to a restrictive rate. In the future, decisions will continue to be made at successive meetings, and the Fed has not yet decided whether to raise interest rates in July. The Fed believes that inflation has eased, but upward inflation risks still exist. In addition, he believes that considering a rate cut should be a matter of years from now.

Powell: Almost all Fed officials believe that future rate hikes will continue, and rate cuts will be a matter of years to come.

6 月 14 日（路透）- 特斯拉创纪录的 13 天连涨终于在周三结束了，该股收盘时仅下跌了一丁点，在此之前，这家美国汽车制造商的价值增加了 2000 多亿美元。

特斯拉股价终于打破了 13 天连胜的记录，增加了 2000 亿美元的价值

LIVE MARKETS-Tesla snaps record 13-day winning streak that cost short sellers $7 billion

The Fed said that pausing the rate hike allows the Fed to assess future information and its impact, and reiterated that the banking system is resilient and the tightening credit environment has an uncertain impact on inflation. The dot plot shows that two-thirds of Fed officials expect rates to be above 5.5% this year, meaning at least two 25 basis point rate hikes. Fed officials raised the expected median peak rate by 50 basis points to 5.6% and raised this year's GDP growth forecast by more than double to 1%, lowered the unemployment rate forecast for this and the next two years, and raised the core PCE inflation forecast for this year.

As scheduled, the Fed paused its rate hikes but turned hawkish! It hinted at two more hikes and is expected to avoid a recession this year.

Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet-C, Meta, and Amazon, the top five technology stocks, have seen net selling of investment funds for six consecutive trading days. According to Goldman Sachs traders, discussions about cyclical stocks are focused on the financial and energy sectors.

The rotation of US stocks continues: Technology is no longer exclusive to the US, and investors are crazy about "everything else".

The European Commission has accused Alphabet-C of abusing its dominant position in the advertising industry. "Our preliminary view is that only by forcing Alphabet-C to divest some of its services can we fully address competition concerns," the commission said.

Alphabet-C may face the risk of splitting! The EU accuses Alphabet-C of abusing its advertising monopoly position.

开盘半小时，道指仍跌超 120 点，标普 500 指数和纳指转涨。这主要由于市场共识预期是美联储今日将宣布暂不加息，对风险情绪形成提振。美债收益率延续美股盘前的跌势，且短端收益率跌幅更深。美元指数 DXY 跌 0.5% 并失守 103 关口，至一个月最低。现货黄金涨 0.6% 并升破 1950 美元整数位。国际油价齐涨超 1%。

美联储决策公布前，道指跌超百点，标普纳指转涨，特斯拉无缘 14 日连涨

Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI is not as sweet as it seems on the surface. There are subtle cracks and fissures between the two companies. In order to avoid antitrust scrutiny, Microsoft only holds 49% of OpenAI's shares and does not have direct control over the latter.

OpenAI+Microsoft, a seemingly mismatched technological alliance

德意志银行坚持认为标普 500 指数将达到 4,500 点，这一预测与高盛的预测差不多，高盛认为美国应该可以避免经济衰退。

衰退已被遗忘！高盛、德银看好美股

今日有消息称在阿里巴巴集团业务分拆后，集团公关部计划独立成为一家公关公司。这家公关公司将是独立的企业组织，第一大客户就是阿里巴巴。对此，知情人士表示，此事为误传。

阿里集团公关团队将独立运作？知情人士：误传！

苹果目前市值接近 3 万亿美元大关，而特斯拉和 Meta 的市值都跌破了 1 万亿美元。

AI 的里程碑！英伟达进入 “万亿俱乐部”，之后呢？

小鹏涨超 2%，理想涨超 4%，蔚来涨 3%，阿里跌 0.5%，京东跌 0.6%，拼多多跌 1.4%；贝壳跌近 1%，哔哩哔哩跌 0.4%。特斯拉涨近 2％，Nikola 涨近 14%，Lucid 涨超 1%。

美股盘前 | 欧盟监管大棒挥向谷歌，特斯拉上调 Model Y 美国售价，美银称 AMD 大幅落后英伟达

整体看，预计设有人民币双柜台的个股短期将受益于新增的离岸人民币流动性。

增量资金来了！双柜台模式下周开启，港股将获新的流动性

美银表示，AMD 仍然远远落后英伟达，因 AMD 下季才开始提供 AI 芯片样本。时间方面，当 AMD 开始通过基于 5 纳米的 GPU 加速器企稳时，英伟达可能会推出其下一代基于 3 纳米、LLM 优化的 Blackwell 架构 GPU，进一步扩大其在人工智能市场上已经相当大的领先优势。

大行速睇 | 苹果遭 “降级”，目标价却获上调？华尔街称 “AMD 仍远远落后英伟达”

Given the current high inflation data, economists still hold an open attitude towards the risk of further interest rate hikes in the future.

Fed FOMC Preview: Pressing the Pause Button is a Done Deal, But Will They Add More After Skipping?

AMD launches the strongest AI APU in history, but helps push NVIDIA's market value over $1 trillion.

Track Hyper | AMD's Su Zifeng: Confronting NVIDIA's Huang Renxun

北京时间 6 月 15 日凌晨 02:00 将迎来美联储利率决议和经济预期摘要，半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。投资者预计美联储本月不会加息的可能性为 94%。

美联储今晚可能不会加息，以后呢？

CHINA LIT, CLOUD MUSIC, and KINGSOFT rose more than 1%, while Trip.com fell more than 5%, and SENSETIME-W fell 3%. Banks, telecommunications, electricity, real estate, and biopharmaceuticals were among the top decliners.

Hang Seng Index fell, while Hang Seng TECH Index rose by 0.32%. Rare earth permanent magnet stocks led the gains, with We Xiaoli leading the automotive sector.

如果月销售额能达到 2.2 万台，保持 2022 年费用不变，费用率会下降 24%，毛利率增长 6%。一来一回净利率提升 30%——而蔚来 2022 年整体的净利率正好是-29.3%。至于降价多少钱才能实现月销 2.2 万辆，这个必然不是一道单选题，而是竞品、产品质量、服务全方位的多选题。

极限推演：蔚来能撑多久？

A local security judge has been appointed by the regional judge to act as a mediator in the negotiations and has requested that all parties finalize the details by Thursday. The judge stated that if an agreement is reached, she "definitely won't need" to issue a restraining order.

Is there hope for the cryptocurrency industry? Binance may reach an agreement with the SEC to avoid asset freezes.

目前的波动率指数表明，标普 500 指数在未来 30 天内每天的波动幅度将小于 1%。

美股期权市场的启示：往好处想，做最坏的打算！

Palantir 第一季度的财务业绩是一个重要的里程碑，也是一个看涨信号，表明该公司可以产生稳定的自由现金流，且分析显示该公司未来几个季度利润率仍有进一步扩大的巨大空间，因此该股仍值得买入。