CICC research report pointed out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data in June fell short of expectations, indicating a cooling momentum in job growth, but the overall labor market remains in moderate expansion. Based on this, CICC maintains its judgment that the Federal Reserve will neither raise nor lower interest rates this year. In the medium term, if the economic aggregate demand driven by AI investment continues to expand, the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate hikes next year cannot be ruled out

CICC: Non-farm payroll cooling supports the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates or lower interest rates

Palantir CEO Alex Karp publicly criticized OpenAI and Anthropic, calling their token-based billing model "insane." He argued that enterprise customers are effectively paying a "wealth tax," thereby surrendering their core competitive advantages. Palantir simultaneously released a nine-point "AI Sovereignty" manifesto, warning that losing control over model weights means losing control over an institution's destiny

Palantir CEO Slams Large Model Giants: Their Business Model Has Major Flaws, Imposing a "Tax" on Enterprises While Ignoring Enterprise Risk Management

Meta's Chief AI Officer Alexander Wang stated in an internal meeting that the company's upcoming AI model "Watermelon" has performance that matches OpenAI's flagship model GPT-5.5. This model's computing power has increased by an order of magnitude compared to its predecessor, marking significant progress for Meta in narrowing the gap with its competitors

Meta's superintelligent executive claims to have caught up with OpenAI in the AI model competition

Liquidity and leverage indicators for US stocks have reached extreme levels. Funds in money market funds largely stem from transfers out of low-interest bank deposits, while the S&P 500's share of total market capitalization is approaching its 2000 peak. Meanwhile, Margin Debt has surged 53% year-on-year; similar growth rates peaked in 2000, 2007, and 2021, with major market tops occurring within a year thereafter

Liquidity and Leverage in the US Stock Market

White House economic advisor Hassett publicly criticized Powell for continuing to serve at the U.S. central bank, stating that this move hinders the Trump administration’s appointment of new board members. Among the Federal Reserve Board members, Trump has successfully appointed only one member since the start of his second term, namely the new Chair Warsh. Hassett stated yesterday that a majority within the Federal Reserve are motivated to vote against Trump

Hassett Criticizes Powell: Staying on at the Fed Is Highly Unusual, Hindering Trump’s Appointment of New Nominees

Two funds under Blue Owl faced redemption requests totaling over $4.7 billion in Q2, equivalent to 18.8% and 38.1% of their respective shares, triggering the 5% redemption cap and closing exit channels for the second consecutive quarter. Blue Owl stated that Q2 redemption requests were primarily from repeat applicants, with limited new participants

Wave of Private Credit Redemptions Persists! Blue Owl Faces Massive Redemptions Again, Restricts Withdrawals for Two Consecutive Quarters

Market Highlights for July 3, 2026: U.S. semiconductor stocks plunged, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 12% over two days, impacted by Anthropic's in-house chip development and Meta's AI progress falling short of expectations; Tesla's Q2 deliveries beat expectations but its stock price dropped sharply. On the macro front, U.S. Non-Farm Employment figures were significantly below expectations, while the unemployment rate hit a new low. The ECB President stated that raising interest rates was the correct move. Additionally, "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry took a short position on Micron Tech, and OpenAI proposed gifting 5% of its shares to the U.S. government

Breakfast | July 3, 2026

US markets are closed today. Key focus will be on the final June Services and Composite PMI releases from multiple countries, including Japan, China, India, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK. Additionally, Vietnam will release data on imports, exports, trade balance, and Q2 GDP. ECB President Lagarde and other central bank officials will deliver speeches in France. Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new adjustment window

Reminder: Key Focus for Intraday Trading (All times in Beijing Time)

On Thursday (July 2), the US Stock Market Rate-Cut Winners Index fell 0.02% to close at 98.42 points. After the release of the US Non-Farm Employment report, the index opened higher but then declined, exhibiting an overall W-shaped trend. For the week, it accumulated a decline of 1.58%

US President Donald Trump: I am implementing the same tariffs, but the situation has become more severe

In late New York trading on July 2, non-USD currencies generally rose following the release of the US Non-Farm Employment report. The euro, pound, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar all gained against the US dollar, with the euro hitting a new daily high. Commodity currencies such as the South African rand and Mexican peso also performed strongly. The US dollar fell against the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Hungarian forint. The Indian rupee and Turkish lira ended slightly lower before the report's release

Non-USD Currencies Generally Rise on Non-Farm Payrolls Day

At the New York close on Thursday (July 2) (04:59 Beijing time on Friday), the offshore renminbi (CNH) was quoted at 6.7888 against the U.S. dollar, up 59 pips from the New York close on Wednesday. It traded within a range of 6.7966-6.7836 during the day, rebounding significantly upon the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment report

At the close of New York trading on July 2, spot gold rose more than 2% to $4,123.21 per ounce, briefly approaching $4,140 during the session, driven by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment report. COMEX gold futures also gained 1.22%. Additionally, spot silver and COMEX silver futures rose 3.04% and 2.87% respectively, while COMEX copper futures edged up 0.18%. Precious and base metals generally trended higher

Spot Gold Rises Over 2% on Non-Farm Employment Day

"The Big Short" Michael Burry: Initiated a short position on Micron Tech at $1,051.87 on Wednesday. Risk Warning and Disclaimer: The market involves risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this content are the sole responsibility of the investor

"The Big Short" Michael Burry: Initiated a short position on Micron Tech at $1,051.87 on Wednesday

Emerging market currencies strengthened against the US dollar amid weak US employment data and a softer greenback. The data reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October, boosting risk assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose as much as 0.3%, before paring some gains ahead of the close

Emerging Market FX Markets Boosted by Weak US Jobs Data and Softer Dollar

Tesla announced that the Model Y three-row six-seat long-wheelbase version (Model YL) is now available for consumers in the United States and Puerto Rico. This move aims to expand the market for its best-selling model and attract buyers who need more space. Previously, Musk had anticipated that this model would not be produced in the U.S. until the end of 2026, and the early release follows the company's announcement of better-than-expected second-quarter delivery data

Tesla announces that the three-row six-seat version of the Model Y is now available for sale to customers in the United States

According to The Information, Tesla has notified employees that starting from July 6, the weekly AI expenditure limit will be set at $200. Any expenses exceeding this limit will require approval, and this restriction does not include the xAI product beta testing. This move aims to control the high AI computing power consumption by engineers

Tesla sets the weekly AI spending limit for employees at $200

The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index initially closed down 1.8%. Performance among popular Chinese stocks was mixed, with Baidu, NIO, and XPeng leading the declines, while Meituan, Xiaomi, and BYD posted gains. In related ETFs, CQQQ fell 5.2% and KWEB dropped 0.6%

A Tesla in Texas lost control and crashed into a residential home, resulting in the death of a woman. The driver has been taken into custody by the police and charged with manslaughter. The specific cause of the accident (whether it was due to autopilot or operator error) is still pending technical assessment. This incident has once again raised public concern regarding the safety of Tesla vehicles and the accountability of its autopilot system

Tesla crashes into a Texas home, resulting in the death of a woman; driver charged with manslaughter

The U.S. added only 57,000 jobs in June, half the forecast, while unemployment fell to 4.2% due to declining labor participation. This weak data reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, increasing market expectations for steady rates in September. Consequently, the Dow rose slightly, though major indices remained mixed as investors weigh persistent inflation against a softening labor market.

The U.S. Economy Added an Underwhelming 57,000 Jobs in June. Here's the Takeaway for Investors.

Meta Platforms states that AI agent development has not "accelerated as we expected" over the past four months. Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer: The market involves risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investors bear full responsibility for their own investment decisions

Meta Platforms states that AI agent development has not "accelerated as we expected" over the past four months

Meta quietly launched the AI social application Pocket, allowing users to generate interactive "gizmo" mini-games through text prompts. The application is based on technology acquired from Atma Sciences and aims to enhance user engagement through interactive content, currently available only in select regions

Meta quietly launched the AI social application Pocket, focusing on interactive mini-games

The United Launch Alliance used the Atlas V rocket to send 29 Leo satellites into space for Amazon. This move aims to pave the way for Amazon's broadband service launch later this year, challenging SpaceX's Starlink network. Currently, Amazon has deployed over 390 satellites, completing the launch tasks required for initial service, and will gradually switch to the Vulcan rocket for the remaining launches

Amazon's latest batch of satellites launched, paving the way for internet services this year and challenging Starlink

Tesla's second-quarter delivery exceeded expectations, but the stock price still fell by 7.3%. Analysts pointed out that investors were disappointed due to a lack of progress in AI and new vehicle models. Truist raised its target price to $430, emphasizing that developments in AI such as FSD are more important for long-term value; other institutions believe that strong exports support sales, but the energy storage business did not meet expectations

Strong quarterly sales fail to boost Tesla's stock price as analysts await more progress in AI

On July 2, German government bond yields fluctuated in response to U.S. non-farm payroll data. The 10-year German bond yield rose throughout the day to 2.904%, but plunged upon the data release, giving back its gains; the 2-year yield fell 1.2 basis points to 2.5%; and the 30-year yield rose 3.8 basis points to 3.489%. The 2/10-year yield spread widened to +40.211 basis points

German 2-Year Bond Yield Falls by Over 1 Basis Point on Non-Farm Payrolls Day, While 30-Year German Bond Yield Rises by Approximately 4 Basis Points

Japan has announced a national growth strategy worth approximately $2.3 trillion, aiming to establish autonomous capabilities through "Sovereign AI." The plan involves deploying tens of millions of AI robots across 18 industries by 2040 and developing domestic multimodal foundation models. The Noetra consortium, comprising SoftBank Group Corp., NEC, and others, is responsible for R&D. The government will provide up to JPY 1 trillion in funding over the next five years, with disbursements tied to annual milestone assessments

Domestic Models + Tens of Millions of Robots! Japan Unveils "Sovereign AI" Strategy, Betting $2.3 Trillion on the Future

Tesla's delivery and production volumes in the second quarter far exceeded Wall Street expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34%. Despite the strong data, the stock price still fell by 7%. The company is trying to rebound from two consecutive years of declining sales, previously affected by boycotts and the cancellation of tax credits. Positive factors include the Iran war driving up oil prices, prompting European buyers to turn to electric vehicles, but the ceasefire agreement has caused oil prices to retreat

Tesla's second-quarter delivery volume far exceeded expectations, yet the stock price still fell by 7%

Meta's stock price surged 9%, with Wall Street optimistic about its cloud computing strategy, but it is expected that this low-margin business will drag down the company's overall profitability

Meta is making a big push into cloud computing, and Wall Street needs to prepare for a decline in company profit margins

Microsoft announced a $2.5 billion investment to establish a new operational department, Microsoft Frontier Company, aimed at accelerating the implementation of enterprise AI. This department will deploy 6,000 experts to work on-site with clients to deploy large-scale AI systems, with Rodrigo Kede Lima serving as president. This move marks Microsoft's extension from being an infrastructure provider to an implementation service provider, in response to fierce competition from rivals like AWS in the enterprise AI market

Microsoft invests $2.5 billion to establish a new department to enhance enterprise AI implementation services

HSBC has doubled its target price for Intel to $200, giving it a "Buy" rating, the highest on Wall Street. Analyst Frank Lee is optimistic about its foundry business and the growth potential of server CPUs, expecting profits to be driven by this in 2026-2027. As a result of this positive news, Intel's stock price rose 1.8% on Thursday, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 250%

Intel rises as HSBC doubles its target price to $200

Anthropic is in discussions with Samsung regarding a partnership for manufacturing custom AI chips and has initiated in-house R&D efforts, aiming to emulate OpenAI by gaining greater control over high computing system costs

Report: Anthropic in Talks with Samsung for Custom AI Chips

The final month-on-month figure for U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation in May was 1.4%, compared with a forecast of 1.3% and an initial reading of 1.3%

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) was reported at 3.66% on the previous trading day (July 1, the day before the release of the Non-Farm Employment report), compared to 3.68% the day before. The effective federal funds rate on the previous trading day was reported at 3.63%, unchanged from 3.63% the day before

Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson recommends a tactical short position on USD/JPY, with a target of 155.80 and a stop-loss at 163.20. Reasons include a macro environment favorable to Japanese intervention, crowded long positions, and signals from interactions between US and Japanese officials. The strategist believes the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July is extremely low, and expects the US dollar to strengthen by year-end due to interest rate differentials and growth prospects

Wells Fargo Strategist: Rising Intervention Risk, Recommends Tactical Short on USD/JPY

Tesla expects a year-on-year delivery growth of 3%-5% in the second quarter, primarily driven by a 57% rebound in sales in the European market. Analysts anticipate quarterly deliveries of approximately 403,000 vehicles, an increase of over 12% quarter-on-quarter. The recovery in Europe reverses previous sluggishness, while China is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%, and North America is projected to decline by 21% due to the expiration of tax credits. Additionally, the market is paying attention to Tesla's substantial investments in AI and rumors of a merger with SpaceX

Tesla expects a 3% increase in deliveries in the second quarter, with analysts estimating quarterly deliveries at 396,466 vehicles

Meta plans to build its own cloud computing business, directly competing in the AI computing power market, raising concerns about the prospects of "new cloud" companies like CoreWeave. As a result, the prices of the €2 billion euro-denominated high-yield bonds and the $1.25 billion dollar bonds issued by CoreWeave last month fell for two consecutive days, reaching approximately 96.8 and 97.3, respectively. Analysts point out that the business model in this field is novel, risks are concentrated, and long-term profit margins are unclear, having yet to undergo a real test

The "New Cloud" model faces new challenges! Meta "transforms from benefactor to competitor" as CoreWeave bonds fall for two consecutive days, raising concerns

Tesla's Q2 deliveries reached 480,126 vehicles, a 25% year-over-year increase, significantly beating expectations. Model 3/Y deliveries totaled 467,762 units, up 25% year over year. Production stood at 451,758 vehicles, a 10% year-over-year increase. The results have boosted market confidence and alleviated concerns about slowing demand

Tesla Q2 Deliveries of 480,126 Vehicles Beat Expectations, Surging 25% Year Over Year

US Non-Farm Employment in June missed expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to a one-year low. Japan may shift to surprise-style yen intervention, with foreign investors heavily selling off Japanese bonds. In tech, Apple raised its shipment target for foldable iPhones, SoftBank plans to launch AI cloud services, Nvidia partners with cloud companies, Amazon develops its own chips, OpenAI proposes government equity stakes, Google loses an EU antitrust case, and Alibaba integrates offerings to launch new AI products. In equities, the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite Index fell, while the Hang Seng Index rose

Global Headlines to Know Before Thursday's US Stock Market Open

Nasdaq futures rose 0.60% during the session, S&P 500 futures gained 0.40%, and Dow Jones futures climbed 0.39%; US Treasury yields fell sharply

US Stock Index Futures Surge Following Release of US Non-Farm Employment Data

On July 2nd, before the US stock market opened, the three major stock index futures rose together. Major European stock indices also generally increased, while oil prices fell. The market focus is on the US non-farm payroll data for June, which is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller hinted at a decrease in inflation risks but remained silent on whether to raise interest rates in July, complicating the policy outlook

U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Wall Street Downplays Concerns of "Excess Computing Power," U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls to be Released Tonight

Reminder: At 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. June Non-Farm Employment report (including employment figures, Unemployment Rate, and average hourly earnings) will be released one day early due to the U.S. market holiday on Friday, along with the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2027 FOMC voter): The robust investment growth in the United States is unlikely to slow down. Resilient consumers are a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Federal Reserve policy remains slightly restrictive

Meta plans to sell excess AI computing power, raising concerns about overheating in global AI investments. As a result, the technology sector in the US stock market and South Korean stock market saw significant declines, with SK Hynix's market value evaporating greatly. Hong Kong's technology stocks also generally fell by more than 10%. Despite the increased short-term volatility, analysts believe that AI penetration is still in its early stages, and the demand for computing power is expected to rise in the long term, with giants continuing to procure high-end computing power

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Meta sells excess computing power, AI is not pessimistic, pharmaceutical stocks strengthen collectively with multiple catalysts

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Li Auto-W announced that on July 1, 2026, the company spent USD 7.7132 million to repurchase 1.2688 million shares

On July 1st, Li Auto-W spent USD 7.7132 million to repurchase 1.2688 million shares

Tesla and SpaceX achieve deep business integration through the Tera wafer factory project, with executives from both sides holding cross-positions. Tesla updates its organizational structure, streamlining 70 core leaders, with some executive responsibilities adjusted. The long-term cooperation among Musk's enterprises and the formation of the Tera wafer team mark a new phase in strategic layout, shifting from temporary talent allocation to cross-enterprise joint project operations

How Musk Assembled the Terafab Team Inside Tesla

NVIDIA launched the "AI Computing Partner Program," providing financial backing for startup cloud service providers. If the service providers are unable to rent out GPUs, NVIDIA will repurchase idle computing power at an agreed price. This move aims to reduce the financing difficulties for customers and accelerate the procurement of AI chips, while NVIDIA takes a share of the revenue, playing the role of an "industry central bank" to solidify its market position

NVIDIA announces it will take a share of revenue from the cloud business of some customers

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Alibaba-W announced that it spent approximately USD 99.9878 million to repurchase about 8.2206 million shares on June 30 and July 1, 2026