CME“美联储观察”：美联储 7 月维持利率在 5.00%-5.25% 不变的概率为 7.6%，加息 25 个基点至 5.25%-5.50% 区间的概率为 92.4%；到 9 月维持利率不变的概率为 5.7%，累计加息 25 个基点的概率为 71.2%，累计加息 50 个基点的概率为 23.1%。

美联储 7 月加息 25 个基点的概率为 92.4%

谷歌当前正面临一项广泛的集体诉讼，这家科技巨头被指控非法收集数百万互联网用户的数据，来训练其旗舰聊天机器人 Bard 和其他人工智能程序。这项于当地时间周二（7 月 11 日）向旧金山联邦法院提起的诉讼指控称，谷歌违反了一系列隐私和知识产权法，包括《数字千年版权法》。几周前，同一家律师事务所以类似方式起诉了 OpenAI，声称该公司使用 “前所未有的” 非法网络抓取策略，来创建其聊天机器人 ChatGPT 和图像生成器 DALL-E。

涉嫌非法采集用户数据训练 AI，谷歌面临隐私侵权诉讼

投资者在质量较低的股票中寻找回报，他们再次对散户抱团股（MEME）着迷。不过，这可能意味着标普 500 指数出现了危险信号。宏桥信托投资集团（BTIG）分析师 Jonathan Krinsky 称，当市场上一些被做空最多的股票出现反弹，比如现在的散户抱团股而必需品消费等避险股出现下跌时，投资者应该为大盘几天的疲软做好准备。由 Rivian 和 Riot Platforms 等公司组成的散户抱团股票指数在过去三个交易日上涨了 10% 以上，而精选日用消费品 SPDR 基金则下跌了 1.3%。Krinsky 写道，在过去 18 个月里，两者之间的差距有 17 次达到或超过 10 个百分点，其中有 12 次标普 500 指数在 3 天或 5 天后下跌。

散户抱团股火热，标普 500 指数或在不久后下跌

Nuclear fusion startup Oklo and special purpose acquisition company AltC have announced that they have reached a final business merger agreement and will go public through a SPAC. Oklo is valued at approximately $850 million in this transaction. Altman stated that the goal of making artificial intelligence and energy affordable and abundant are closely intertwined.

Nuclear fission company Oklo is going public! Backed by Altman, co-founder of OpenAI.

According to EIA's forecast, the crude oil production in the United States this year will be 12.56 million barrels per day, a slight decrease from the previous monthly forecast of 12.61 million barrels per day. However, next year, the crude oil production in the United States will reach 12.85 million barrels per day, a slight increase compared to the previous month's forecast of 12.77 million barrels per day. EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will reach $79 this year, and it will rise to $80 in the fourth quarter, and further increase to $84 next year.

EIA Monthly Outlook: US oil production expected to increase slightly by the end of next year, bullish on future oil prices

纽约，7 月 11 日（路透）- 据熟悉内情的人士透露，短视频应用 TikTok 的中国所有者字节跳动将允许美国员工的股票在不等待公司上市的情况下归属，从而允许他们套现。

独家 - 消息人士称，TikTok 母公司字节跳动将允许美国员工套现股票

"Express Delivery Tycoon" to Challenge HKEX

美股三大指数集体高开，道指随后延续涨逾百点的走势，标普 500 指数小幅上涨，纳指盘初小幅转跌。开盘 50 分钟，纳斯达克金龙中国指数转跌，美股盘初一度上涨超 1.89%。对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率止跌转涨超 2 个基点，交投 4.88%，10 年期基债收益率跌幅显著收窄，并尝试上逼 4% 关口。国际油价齐涨超 1%。

纳指盘初转跌，道指涨百点，中概指数涨近 2% 后下挫，美元跌至两个月最低

This week, the release of CPI and PPI data, the University of Michigan survey, bank financial reports, the Fed Beige Book, and speeches by at least 9 Fed officials will be closely watched by the market, determining the future direction of the US stock and bond markets.

Key Week for US Investors: 9 Fed Officials Speak, Earnings Season and CPI Data

冰岛监管部门报告了三例患者使用诺和诺德两款 GLP-1 类药物后出现自杀念头的案例，欧盟药监局已启动调查，审查范围可能扩大到整个 GLP-1 类药物。

患者用药后出现自杀倾向？诺和诺德两款 “减肥神药” 遭欧盟调查

上半年车企悲欢参半，比亚迪和特斯拉维持高增长，蔚来小鹏静待拐点

车企两极分化的上半年 | 见智研究

恒生电子澄清：相关报道提及 “传闻称蚂蚁金服要成立金融 IT 软件板块，‘恒生电子要被瓜分蛋糕了’”，就此公司已与蚂蚁科技集团股份有限公司确认，该信息不符合事实情况。

当大众的看法是盲目乐观或极度悲观时，当前的价格水平和方向变得不可持续的可能性就会增加。

霍华德·马克斯最新备忘录：赚钱的秘诀在于逆向思维，而不是盲从

小鹏汽车涨近 9%，理想汽车涨逾 4%，小米、阿里、哔哩哔哩、京东涨约 2%。

恒生科技收涨 1.47%，汽车产业链全线爆发，浙江世宝大涨 36%，蔚来涨近 12%

高盛表示，随着生成式人工智能的不断发展，认为台积电是关键的人工智能推动者，这要归功于它在前沿节点和先进封装技术方面的领导地位。

大行速睇 | 小鹏汽车目标价获大幅上调！台积电被视为 “关键的 AI 推动者”

美联储政策转变之前，预计恒指将维持 “宽幅震荡” 格局，即下有底、上行空间仍未打开，建议于港股市帐率约 1 倍时入市，作波段性的操作也可获得约 10% 至 20% 的回报。

中金：预计恒指未来仍维持宽幅震荡格局，波段操作至多可获利 20%

花旗将对美国股票的评级从 “增持” 下调至 “中性”，并称随着 AI 热潮进一步被市场消化，美股成长股预计在四季度回调，美国经济也可能出现衰退风险。

花旗大幅下调美股评级：成长股四季度或回调，美国经济可能衰退！

The governor of the Mexican state of Nuevo León, where Tesla's fifth Gigafactory is located, recently stated that Tesla has entered the final stage of designing the new Model 2, which will be the "best" and most affordable electric vehicle in the world.

Model 2 is coming? Tesla reportedly completes the design of the new generation affordable electric vehicle.

Japanese automakers have "dominated" the Thai market for sixty years. Is it about to change?

Chinese automakers "take over" the "turf" of Japanese automakers

GPT-4 has been "open-sourced" again. SemiAnalysis has "unveiled" a wealth of information about GPT-4. The parameter scale is more than 10 times that of GPT-3, and it adopts the MoE model architecture. GPT-4 was trained with 13 trillion tokens.

GPT-4 "The Ultimate Revelation": 18 trillion parameters, trained once for $63 million!

摩根士丹利予理想汽车 “增持” 评级，目标价 40 美元。

KEEP 今日暗盘高开，一度涨超 11% 报 32.2 港元，市值接近 170 亿港元。

一、事件：2023 世界机器人大会 据官网显示，2023 世界机器人大会将于 8 月 16 日至 22 日在京举办，...

又一机器人盛会下月举办，超 500 余展品将亮相，优必选、小米等有望亮相

花旗研究分析师 Christopher Danely 在周一的报告中表示，英伟达将占据 AI 芯片市场 “至少 90%” 的市场份额，AMD 位居第二。Danely 指出，上一代 AI 芯片 中，AMD 的硬件速度大约是英伟达的 80%，而英伟达的 H100 与 AMD 的 MI300 相比，也具有类似的优势。

分析师：英伟达将占 AI 芯片市场至少 9 成份额

大摩认为，英伟达的强劲业绩和疯狂涨势有望持续到下半年，更是今年唯一一家可能因为 AI 而业绩超预期公司。最重要的是，在 AI 赛道上，英伟达的竞争地位优于其他任何公司。

下半年继续押注 AI 股？大摩：英伟达仍是 “最佳选择”！

中信证券明明认为，工业企业的整体库存仍处在偏高的水平，低库存是结构性的。如果外需和地产需求持续面临压力，且政策刺激力度相对温和，工业生产和 PPI 难以确认较大的拐点。

中信证券：库存周期的拐点临近了吗？

"It is difficult to prove that the P/E ratios of many (US) technology companies are reasonable." "European stocks have lower valuations, making them more attractive."

US stocks peaked? Hedge funds reduce bullish positions to a ten-year low, while betting on European stocks reaches an all-time high.

英伟达用 A100 和 H100 两块显卡，轻松拿下了万亿美元的市值，坐稳了 AI 时代的宝座，而它们用的显存，正是 AMD 当初力推的 HBM。

AI 引爆，HBM 崛起

ASML 计划在未来一段时间内减少招聘人数，去年该公司招聘了 1 万名新员工。

Open Source Securities stated that the transformation of autonomous driving algorithms has driven a competition in cloud computing power. Major automakers are actively building their own data centers. Companies that can effectively adapt the Transformer algorithm and facilitate its implementation on in-vehicle platforms are expected to gain a competitive advantage.

Has the era of autonomous driving arrived? Breaking free from high-precision maps, car companies are also competing for "computing power"!

Chinese automakers could have taken advantage of their price and cost advantages to "sweep" into Europe, but they still choose to rely on faster update speed and "hardcore" quality to compete with European automakers.

China's electric vehicles are rising in Europe, relying on production capacity rather than price wars.

巴克莱预计，美股将在年底前都保持区间波动，主要是因为以科技股为中心的涨势不会扩大到标普 500 指数其他板块。尽管该行将标普年底目标点位上调至 4150 点，但这仍意味着美股下半年还要跌 6%。

科技股涨完之后，无人接棒！巴克莱：美股下半年预计要跌！

港股中报业绩 “预期差”、国内外政策的边际变化都很重要！观察的窗口期分别对应七至八月中报披露的业绩期、七月末举行的政治局会议、杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会及九月份的 G20 峰会。

港股可能已经阶段性筑底！最佳配置窗口显现，关注几大关键时点！

Currently, the top seven companies in terms of market value account for 55% of the weight in the NASDAQ Composite Index. After the adjustment, this will decrease to below 40%. At that time, funds tracking the NASDAQ Composite Index will sell stocks of companies with reduced weight. On Monday, most of the stocks of these seven companies experienced a decline.

US Stock Focus: Controlling the influence of the "Seven Sisters" of technology, NASDAQ Composite Index will undergo "special adjustment" on July 21st.

据知情人士透露，KKR & Co.正在为其所持雷士照明中国业务的多数股权探索各种选择，包括出售的可能性。知情人士称，KKR 正在与顾问合作，对雷士照明中国业务的 70% 股权进行战略评估。通过这项交易可能会获得约 10 亿美元，或在今年晚些时候正式启动出售程序，但尚未做出最终决定，KKR 也可以选择将这部分资产持有更长时间。KKR 的一位代表不予置评。

KKR 据悉正考虑对雷士中国多数股权的选项，包括将其出售

* 瑞信上调理想汽车目标价至 48 美元 料次财季净利润创新高

* 瑞信上调理想汽车目标价至 48 美元  料次财季净利润创新高

Splitting up the joint venture between Pharmaron and Wuxi Biologics, and replicating the success of Wuxi Biologics in 2017, is it possible?

Another Capital Miracle from the Longbridge Dolphin of the Pharmaron Group | Insight Research

港股 IMAX CHINA 暂停交易，暂停交易前涨幅为 27.2%，成交额超 2000 万港元。

* 大摩重申阿里为中国互联网企业首选 蚂蚁罚款结果为正面催化剂

* 大摩重申阿里为中国互联网企业首选  蚂蚁罚款结果为正面催化剂

According to Mary Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the current inflation rate in the United States is still too high and needs to be raised twice more. Michael Barr, the Vice Chairman responsible for supervision, stated that they are close to the target but there is still some work to be done. Loretta Mester, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that in order to ensure inflation returns to 2%, further rate hikes are necessary.

Three top officials of the Federal Reserve, known as the "hawkish trio," have stated that inflation is not yet under control and that interest rates need to be raised further this year.

健适医疗据悉考虑最快明年在香港 IPO，已聘请中信证券、高盛等为顾问。

港股生物技术股开盘走高，三叶草生物涨近 7%，云顶新耀涨 2.66%，百济神州、药明生物跟涨。

港股恒指高开涨 1.04％，国企指数涨 1.21％，科指开涨 1.69%，造车新势力走高。

中信建投研报指出，随着人工智能技术的快速发展，自动驾驶技术有望迎来发展拐点。目前，在美国路上行驶的特斯拉选装 FSD 的车型，已经更新至 FSD Beta V11.4.4 版本，而马斯克表示从 V12 版本开始，将取消 Beta 测试版，有望迎来 FSD 的正式版本，并表示 FSD V12 版本有望采用端到端的人工智能算法更新其自动驾驶包。在 V12 之前，FSD Beta 已大量使用由人工智能驱动的神经网络，但仅被用于感知部分用于检测驾驶环境，在决策和驾驶方面仍依赖于常规编程，即将摄像头传感器数据作为神经网络算法的输入，输出汽车周围环境的三维表示，然后使用传统的路径算法来输出转向、加速、制动和其他驾驶行为。而 V12 将引入端到端 AI，即将图像等传感器数据输入神经网络，然后直接得到转向、刹车和加速等决策输出。这种 AI 算法模式下，有望提升路测优化效率，降低误差概率，提升整体性能上限。自动驾驶成为人工智能重要的赋能场景，并助力自动驾驶加速落地。加之，国内相关政策法规配套正不断推进，L3 级及更高级别自动驾驶商业化应用未来可期，汽车智能化产业链相关标的有望深度受益。

中信建投：自动驾驶商用有望加速

微软近日升级了 iPad 版 OneNote 应用，支持用户在撰写文档、笔记过程中使用上标和下标，方便用户更准确地输入脚注和方程式。

微软测试 iPad 新版 OneNote，支持嵌入上标和下标

大空头吉姆·查诺斯表示，特斯拉的全自动驾驶技术在汽车转售市场上的价值可能接近于零。查诺斯在回应一位科技评论员时发推称：“目前，在零售市场上，特斯拉 “全自动驾驶” 套件的价值可能接近于零。” 他补充称：“请记住，马斯克曾说过，拥有 FSD 套件将使你的特斯拉汽车的价值增加数倍于 FSD 套件本身的成本。但在回购时却几乎没有赋予它任何价值。事实上，随着时间的推移，它比车辆本身贬值得更快。

大空头查诺斯：特斯拉自动驾驶技术在二手车市场可能一文不值

数据显示，截至 7 月 10 日发稿，港股市场 2023 年的回购金额已突破 500 亿港元，与去年同期相比增近五成。金融蓝筹股和科技股成为回购潮主力军。其中，腾讯控股、友邦保险的年内回购金额均超百亿港元。分析人士称，港股回购潮起，一定程度上传递出市场对港股未来走势的信心。

金融蓝筹股和科技股成主力军，回购潮提振信心，机构看多港股后市

台积电将于 2024 年 4 月开始建造其在日本的第二座工厂，预计将于 2026 年投产。

KEEP announced in a statement that it plans to issue 10,838,600 shares at a final offering price of HK$28.92 per share, with an estimated net proceeds of approximately HK$192 million. The shares will be listed on July 12, 2023, with a board lot size of 100 shares. The preliminary subscription results for the Hong Kong public offering have exceeded the initial offering size by approximately 3.08 times. The final number of shares offered under the Hong Kong public offering is 1,083,900 shares, accounting for 10% of the initial offering size. The preliminary subscription results for the international offering have slightly exceeded the initial offering size by approximately 1.37 times. The final number of shares offered under the international offering is 9,754,700 shares, accounting for 90% of the initial offering size. Based on the offering price of HK$28.92 per share and the cornerstone investment agreement, cornerstone investors have subscribed for a total of 2,646,500 shares, representing approximately 0.50% of the initial offering size and 24.42% of the total issued shares after the completion of the global offering.