美股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，道指下跌 0.02%，标普 500 指数涨 0.04%，纳指涨 0.05%。特斯拉预计全年资本支出超过 100.0 亿美元，市场预估 97.8 亿美元。马斯克考虑从 AMD 处采购人工智能芯片，AMD 开盘跌 0.5%。英伟达涨跌 0.05%，英特尔在上周五收盘大跌近 12% 后，开盘涨 0.3%。iRobt 开盘跌逾 18%，亚马逊同意终止收购该公司的协议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

美股三大指数开盘涨跌不一

The explosive demand for AI has triggered a surge in data center demand. "Real estate tycoon" Blackstone, with its keen insight, has made a forward-looking bet on the "data center" empire, which may become one of the best investments in the company's history.

Betting Big on AI! Blackstone, the "Real Estate Tycoon," and its $25 billion "Data Center" Empire

逆势大幅上涨，部分中小券商业绩同比大幅回升。截至 1 月 29 日，已有近 19 家券商披露了 2023 年业绩预告或业绩快报。其中，多家券商提到了 2023 年的投资业绩同比增加的情况。例如，长城证券预计 2023 年净利润将同比增长 56% 至 66%，主要得益于创新驱动业绩增长和自营投资业务回升。此外，东方证券和光大证券也同样提到了投资业务收入同比增加的情况。这些数据显示了中小券商在 2023 年取得了较好的业绩。

逆势大幅上涨，部分中小券商业绩同比大幅回升

Ma Huateng said that WeChat is currently the strongest platform in terms of daily active users and the entire ecosystem for TENCENT. However, we still need to make up for the lack of e-commerce knowledge over the years. This year, we will focus on the development of video streaming e-commerce. E-commerce and advertising complement each other.

Ma Huateng: Fully developing video streaming, live commerce, and having confidence is currently the most lacking aspect in the overall environment.

华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司总经理聂挺进因个人原因辞职。聂挺进在基金和公募资管领域有 16 年经验，曾在多家机构任职。聂挺进于 2021 年 9 月加入华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司，后担任总经理职务。华泰证券公告称，聂挺进辞职后，董事长崔春将代行总经理职责。

十多年投研老将，辞任券商系资管机构总经理

腾讯公司董事会主席、首席执行官马化腾表示，AI 也是去年一个重点，全行业甚至全世界的重点，我们总算能跟上第一阵列，不能算最领先，但是至少没有太落后，我觉得后面还要结合我们的场景把 AI 混元大模型应用到各个场景中，短期内一两年内我感觉不会有一个纯原生 AI 大的应用，应该还是要结合到我们的所有产品里面效率提升等，我觉得这个是一个很大的机会。

马化腾：腾讯人工智能技术不算最领先，至少没有太落后

腾讯公司董事会主席、首席执行官马化腾表示，微信是腾讯目前日活、整个生态最强壮的平台，但也已经有 12 年的历史了。微信这棵老树如何发新芽，是一个很大的问题。一年前，我说视频号是 “全鹅厂的希望”，经过一年多的发展，的确不负众望，在成长过程中给我们很多惊喜，让我们在过去短视频失利的情况下，重新具备了一个坚实的抓手。最关键的是，我们不是跟在别人身后做一样东西，而是结合自身特点、做熟人社交的短视频。我们用户群体的消费能力很强，但多年来我们缺乏的电商知识还是要补的，所以我们今年能够全力发展的就是视频号直播电商，电商和广告是相辅相成的。

腾讯马化腾：视频号不负众望，全力发展视频号直播电商

据界面新闻，腾讯公司董事会主席、首席执行官马化腾表示，游戏是腾讯的王牌业务，游戏出海其实是腾讯目前出海国际化的最大希望。过去几年，在海外大 IP 游戏公司的手游研发、网络运行运营等方面，公司发挥了一定优势、建立了口碑。腾讯希望在软件和游戏研发方面横向做透、做扎实，而不是在一个纵深角度跟其他游戏公司或硬件厂商为敌，更关键的还是找准自己的主业并聚焦，这样更有胜算。

腾讯马化腾：游戏出海其实是腾讯公司目前国际化的最大希望

核心 PCE 显示潜在通胀已降至 2% 附近，但 12 月核心 CPI 同比仍维持在 3.9% 的高位，与 PCE 的差距进一步扩大。这些通胀指标对指导美联储降息具有重要意义，也对美股产生影响。

“美联储看跌期权” 回归？

Jesse has paid several tuition fees in the early stage, experiencing shrinkages of 61%, 64%, 65%, 100%, and 106% respectively (i.e., liquidation and margin call).

Character | From 50,000 to 6.8 million in two years! How to seize the opportunity with strong stocks?

Tech stocks are mostly up in pre-market trading, with Intel rising over 2%, AMD and Tesla up over 1%, and NVIDIA up nearly 1%. Chinese concept stocks are mixed, with Li Auto and Alibaba rising over 1%, JD.com and NIO-SW seeing gains, while Pinduoduo and XPENG-W are down over 1%.

Pre-market US stocks: Intel and AMD lead the technology sector! BABA-SWR rises, PDD falls.

Will Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound? BABA-SWR and NIO-SW are gaining popularity.

Hot discussion on WSB | KINGSOFT CLOUD cumulative plummeted 96%, heat continues to rise

Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious view on MEITUAN, believing that the stock lacks short-term catalysts, mainly due to recent challenges in the food delivery business, competition concerns with IHT business and Douyin, as well as the unclear profitability of MEITUAN Select; CICC believes that XPENG-W's positive gross margin may not meet market expectations.

Rating Quick Look | Meituan, XPeng-W target prices significantly lowered! Kuaishou-W, Alphabet-C receive positive outlook

苹果宣布在欧盟地区打破 App Store 的垄断现状，允许其他企业在 iOS 系统上建立第三方应用商店。这项改变是为了配合欧盟即将生效的数字市场法案，阻止科技巨头获得不正当的竞争优势。然而，苹果的新规设置了不低的准入门槛和核心技术使用费，使开发者难以获得实惠。这场苹果、开发者与监管部门之间的战争才刚刚打响。

欧盟反垄断「撬开」苹果，结果坑苦了开发者

天风证券认为，2024 年美股走势的核心是宽松预期下的估值扩张，目前对于美股未来表现的主要质疑是估值偏贵。但在货币政策转向后，只要经济没有深度衰退风险，美股理应通过估值扩张上涨。

理解市场 | 今年美股，涨还是跌？

Last Friday's hottest contract: Tesla put options with a same-day expiration and a strike price of $185 traded over 130,000 contracts! Chip stock options were also hot: Nvidia call options with a strike price of $610 traded over 100,000 contracts; AMD put options with a strike price of $177.5 traded nearly 100,000 contracts.

US Stock Options | Tesla's trading volume sharply declines, market shifts from call to put! Intel's stock price plummets, trading volume surges!

Apple is trying to maintain its "walled garden" through a series of strategies, but these strategies seem to be increasingly causing dissatisfaction among regulatory agencies and other stakeholders.

Cracks appear in Apple's "walled garden"

国务院国资委将全面实施 “一企一策” 考核，对中央企业进行市值管理考核，量化评价控股上市公司市场表现，评价企业市值管理工作举措和成效，加强对违规事项的惩戒，引导企业重视内在价值和市场表现。

国务院国资委将全面实施 “一企一策” 考核

港股收盘，恒指收涨 0.78%，科指收涨 0.54%，中字头表现亮眼，中国联通收涨约 2.4%，药明系带动医药板块整体承压，药明康德跌超 10%。

Morgan Stanley believes that out of the expected lithium mine production of approximately 1.48 million tons of LCE in 2024, one-fourth of the lithium production costs exceed 80,000 yuan per ton. Among them, approximately 150,000 tons of LCE have already incurred losses.

Morgan Stanley: Oversupply of lithium mines will intensify, 80,000 yuan will be an important threshold.

最近一周股市表现出冰火两重天，上证综指反弹至 2900 点以上，创业板指继续下跌。文章讨论了股市行业差异以及系统从融资市向投资市转变的原因。预计 2024 年牛市将以政策牛市和结构性牛市为基础，与整个股市游戏规则的转变有关。文章指出，消费板块开始启动是确立本轮政策牛市的信号。弗里德曼的消费函数理论认为，市场预期股票市场上涨时，消费股会受益。因此，在牛市中，消费股会有两波上涨：市场形成共识、消费股涨预期和牛市持续一段时间、消费股涨业绩。疫情放开后的行情也被提及。

关于一轮牛市确立的基本条件

国内首个口服司美格鲁肽片获批上市，预计将增大 GLP-1 类药物市场规模，进一步打开国内减重市场。国投证券指出，诺和诺德的口服司美格鲁肽片借助创新技术解决了多肽类药物口服吸收难题，可提高生物利用度约 100 倍。目前国内已有多家企业布局 GLP-1 药物，其中华东医药和仁会生物的减重适应症已获批上市。礼来和诺和诺德的减重适应症已进入 NDA 阶段。此次上市将给国内减重市场带来重大影响。

国内首个口服司美格鲁肽片获批对市场意味着什么？

「幻兽帕鲁」出圈最重要的原因在于，它让用户们狠狠体验了一把 “资本视角”，很多玩家笑称 “自己是打工人农奴翻身，在游戏里当家做主了”。

10 天狂赚 13 亿的「幻兽帕鲁」凭什么？

Are the current market catalysts sufficient? If not, what can truly lead to a trend reversal instead of just a temporary rebound? Why are technology and small-cap growth stocks benefiting more after the unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut by the Chinese central bank? Should we pay attention to state-owned enterprises?

Understanding the Market | Has the Hong Kong Stock Market Reached a Turning Point?

1 月 29 日，市场传言称香港第一只比特币现货 ETF 已报香港证监会申请，申请机构为嘉实基金。记者向相关人士确认获知，嘉实国际资产管理有限公司确已向香港证监会提交了比特币现货 ETF 的申请。嘉实国际为嘉实基金在香港设立的资管子公司，是香港第一家提交比特币现货 ETF 申请的机构。

嘉实国际申请香港首只比特币现货 ETF

1 月份汽车销售低迷的原因主要有三个方面：首先，12 月份的大促销活动消化了部分需求；其次，很多优惠政策的截止日期设定在 1 月 1 日，导致购车优惠不够吸引消费者；最后，年底观望现象仍然严重，消费者对换车需求、经济状况和职业稳定性持观望态度。这些因素导致了 1 月份汽车消费减缓。

1 月份汽车销售为什么这么低迷？

12 月工业企业利润点评：工业库存小幅回升，服务业 “补库” 率先启动。根据申万宏源的数据，12 月服务业库存指标改善幅度更大，且服务业补库可能快于工业。若服务业库存加快回升，可能成为今年 GDP 增速好于预期的一个重要来源。同时，12 月工业利润增速回落，营收与成本出现恶化。

12 月工业企业利润点评：工业库存小幅回升 服务业 “补库” 率先启动

In the coming week, major US tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon will release their earnings reports one after another. The key performance data of these tech companies will become the focus of attention in the global stock market. Microsoft is one of the most anticipated earnings reports, with analysts predicting a nearly 16% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the second quarter of its 2024 fiscal year. The performance of Microsoft may have an impact on the risk appetite of global stock investors. If the earnings report exceeds expectations, it may boost the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500, indicating that a "full bull market" may be just a matter of time.

Earnings Report Preview | "New Stock King" Microsoft's performance is about to be released! The revenue-generating effect of AI is highly anticipated by all.

交银国际发布研究报告称，将小鹏汽车-W 目标价由 39.3 港元，调低 30.5% 至 27.3 港元，投资评级维持 “沽出”。公司 2024 年前 3 周总销量每月下跌 59%，表现低迷。新车型 MPVX9 将成为 1 季度唯一的销量亮点。小鹏子品牌 MONA 将在 2024 年第三季上市，但其在 15 万级规模和成本控制能力上不如传统车企。交银国际预计自主品牌将以降价刺激销量，其他车企将跟随。

交银国际：维持小鹏汽车-W“沽出” 评级 目标价削 30.5% 至 27.3 港元

2023 年港股回购创新高，回购金额高达 1259.26 亿港元，同比上涨 20%，其中腾讯回购金额占四成比例，回购金额达到 484 亿港元。

港股回购创新高

HTSC released a research report stating that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will continue to promote measures to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and strengthen financing support. The regulatory authorities are gradually implementing the details of financing support for the real estate market, and these policies can boost industry confidence and provide valuation recovery space for the real estate sector. In the next step, the regulatory authorities will accelerate the implementation of policies, hold deployment meetings, require banks to take action as soon as possible, and guide the implementation of management requirements for commercial property loans. At the same time, they will further optimize personal loan policies to support the optimization of down payment ratios, loan interest rates, and other personal loan financial services.

HTSC: Policy boosts market confidence and provides valuation recovery space for the real estate sector.

* 大摩相信华住股价 60 日内将升

香港差饷物业估价署数据显示，去年 12 月本港私人住宅楼价指数报 312.1，环比跌近 1.4%，连跌 8 个月，为自 2017 年 1 月以来新低，2023 年全年累跌 6.8%。中小型单位 (100 平方米以下) 售价指数环比跌 1.4%，全年累跌 6.7%；较大面积单位 (100 平方米或以上) 售价指数环比跌 0.5%，2023 年全年累跌 7%。租金指数方面，去年 12 月私人住宅租金指数升至 187.1，环比升 0.86%，连升 11 个月，2023 年全年累升 6.6%。

香港差估署：去年 12 月楼价指数环比跌 1.4% 2023 年全年累跌 6.8%

大和证券 SMBC 株式会社将药明生物评级上调至买进，目标价 33 港元。

麦格理：上调快手目标价至 61 港元，预计未来毛利率稳定扩张。

* 美银证券升 Alphabet 目标价至 175 美元 上季收入为亮点

* 美银证券升 Alphabet 目标价至 175 美元  上季收入为亮点

* 大摩降美团目标价至 85 元 维持谨慎看法

* 大摩降美团目标价至 85 元  维持谨慎看法

After the liquidation order, how will Evergrande repay its debts? How much debt is likely to be collected by the creditor? What are the main challenges?

EXPLAINER-What happens next after China Evergrande ordered to liquidate?

港股汽车股走势分化，蔚来汽车涨近 4%，理想汽车涨近 2%，零跑汽车跌超 4%，比亚迪股份跌近 3%。

贝莱德比特币现货 ETF 资产管理规模突破 20 亿美元，二月份可能成为比特币强劲的月份。南华早报报道 OPNX 在香港设立办事处，彭博社称截至 2023 年底，FTX 现金储备增至 44 亿美元。德意志银行调查显示超三分之一的受访者预计比特币将跌破 2 万美元。华尔街日报称阿拉斯加和佛罗里达州已禁止 Binance.US 开展业务。Bitwise 首席执行官表示比特币 ETF "BITB"资产管理规模已超过 5.5 亿美元。CFTC 敦促投资者警惕 AI 创建的加密资产套利算法。灰度比特币持有量减少到 50.2 万。智库警告美国在 CBDC 进展方面落后于其他国家。CFTC 主席表示监管机构需要对加密货币行业进行监督。香港证监会指出 “Floki Stake 计划” 和 “TokenFi Stake 计划” 未获得在香港公开销售的授权。

每日数字货币动态汇总

* 里昂：联想集团涉美国政府业务极微 股价下跌提供买入机会

* 里昂：联想集团涉美国政府业务极微  股价下跌提供买入机会

港股中国恒大、恒大汽车、恒大物业盘中停牌。此前，香港法院向中国恒大发出清盘令。

This week will be the most important week on Wall Street since 2024! Central bank policy meetings will be the focus, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The earnings season for US stocks is entering its peak stage, with most of the "Big Seven" companies set to release their performance reports. In addition, key data such as the US non-farm payroll report for January will also be released, with expectations that the data will support signs of a soft landing.

Super Week for US Stocks! What to Focus on?

药明康德 AH 齐跌，A 股跌超 9% 逼近跌停，H 股跌超 3%。

ARKK achieved a staggering 68% return last year, not only ranking in the top 1% among similar funds, but also achieving the best annual performance in the history of the fund. However, in the previous years of 2021 and 2022, the fund suffered an annualized loss of 50%.

2023 Big Winner "Sister Wood": Fed Rate Cut Boosts Tech Stocks

The Bank of Japan has gradually taken a hawkish stance, while the European Central Bank has overall taken a dovish stance. In this policy cycle, as market financing gradually shifts from the yen to the euro, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase suggest borrowing euros to purchase high-risk, high-yield currencies in order to seek interest rate differentials.

Replacing the yen as the new "financing currency"? Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase both bearish on the euro

* 花旗：药明康德或技术性反弹 惟问题解决前长期投资信心可能会被削弱

* 花旗：药明康德或技术性反弹  惟问题解决前长期投资信心可能会被削弱

药明系港股集体回暖，药明生物涨超 3%。药明合联涨 4.17%，药明康德上涨 0.08%。消息面上，上周业内流传美国拟出台《生物安全法案》，药明生物回应称法案仍有待审议变更，药明康德称业务发展不会对国家安全构成风险，药明合联表示对变动原因不知情。公司确认继续正常经营，业务和财务状况无重大变动。

药明系港股集体回暖 药明生物涨超 3%

Evergrande's stock price once fell more than 18%, as of the time of writing, it has fallen 12.62% to HKD 0.18, with a turnover of HKD 3.9702 million. On the news front, the Hong Kong High Court held a hearing today on Evergrande's liquidation application and regulatory order. It is understood that such a regulatory order means that the court will oversee the liquidation process, which may include the appointment of a liquidator. Industry insiders analyze that according to the usual judgment process, if Evergrande cannot propose a solution acceptable to the court and creditors, it may face bankruptcy. Data shows that as of June 30, 2023, Evergrande's main revenue was approximately CNY 128.18 billion, with a total net loss of CNY 39.25 billion. Evergrande's cash and cash equivalents are approximately CNY 4.047 billion. The total assets are CNY 1.744 trillion, of which current assets are CNY 1.5785 trillion, and total liabilities are CNY 2.3882 trillion.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | EVERGRANDE's stock fell more than 18% at one point, and the liquidation hearing will be held today.

The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting this week, and it is expected to "stay put" for now, with the first rate cut likely to take place in March. Chairman Powell's speech will be the focus of market attention, and investors will closely watch whether he mentions a rate cut. Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be five rate cuts by 2024, with the first one possibly in March. In addition, inflation and labor market performance will also be important factors in the decision-making process. In summary, investors will closely monitor the Fed's decisions and Chairman Powell's speech.

The heavyweight Federal Reserve interest rate decision is coming! Maintaining the status quo is the consensus, and the market is closely watching for any guidance on interest rate cuts.