BC Technology Group surged more than 9%, reaching a 9.11% increase at the time of writing, with a price of HKD 6.71 and a trading volume of HKD 6.9292 million. In terms of news, according to Tencent News' "First Line" report, CSOP Asset Management has submitted an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. This is the first institution in Hong Kong to submit an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission hopes to expedite the approval of the first Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF, and plans to list the first Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETF on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after the Spring Festival. It is reported that prior to this, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority issued a circular in December 2023, stating that they are ready to accept applications for the approval of virtual asset spot ETFs. In addition, on Monday, the price of Bitcoin returned above $43,000, recovering its recent upward trend. After a long-awaited approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline this year, but has recently regained its upward momentum. Bitcoin closed at around $42,000 in 2023. Since the beginning of 2024, the cryptocurrency has accumulated a rise of approximately 1.25%.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | BC Technology Group Surges Over 9%, Hong Kong's First Bitcoin Spot ETF May Be Listed After Chinese New Year at the Earliest.

港股恒大汽车开跌超 12% 后快速反弹，盘中涨超 10%。

港股恒大汽车低开高走 盘中涨超 10%

港股药明系个股再度走低， 药明生物跌近 7%， 药明合联跌 2.44%， 药明康德跌 0.26%。

港股恒指低开跌 1.12％，国企指数跌 1.19％，科指开跌 1.67%。中字头股票延续强势。

中国实际利率水平偏高，中信证券认为央行应引导 LPR 下降 40bp。当前中国的实际国债利率为 3.7%，实际贷款利率为 5.3%，均已显著偏高。走出高实际利率需要积极的财政和产业政策以及货币政策的积极作用。2024 年央行降息具有必要性，早降息有利于降低实际利率。历史上在实际国债利率大于 3.5% 的环境下，债市表现良好。实际利率长期偏高会压制总需求，使经济陷入低迷。通过比较实际利率与实际 GDP 增速、外国实际利率和自然利率，可以得出中国实际利率已显著偏高的结论。

中国实际利率高吗？中信测算：LPR 至少要降 40bp

AMD 正在研发一款新的 GPU，其性能与 RTX 4080 相当，但价格仅为其一半。此外，最新的传言透露，AMD 计划在下一代 GPU 竞争中将最高端市场留给英伟达。这将使高端玩家感到失望，因为他们迫切需要有质量的竞争对手来与 Nvidia 相抗衡。

曝 AMD 的新显卡与 4080 性能相当 但价格仅为其一半

Despite the disappointment from Wall Street regarding Tesla's recent performance, Cathy Wood, the CEO of Ark Investment Management, has been buying the stock aggressively on dips. In January of this year, Wood purchased approximately $141 million worth of Tesla shares. Despite the decline in Tesla's stock price, Wood remains confident in its long-term prospects. Ark Investment's research team predicts that Tesla's stock price will reach $2000 by 2027. This buying opportunity has allowed many investors to see the potential of Tesla.

Here comes another bargain hunting! "Wood Sister" increased her holdings of Tesla by approximately $141 million in January, going against the trend.

存款利率下调，银行储蓄国债销售火爆。2023 年，国有银行和股份行对存款挂牌利率下调，整存整取三年期挂牌利率降至 1.95%。银行存款利率持续下降，存款 “替代” 产品备受关注。年终奖发放季，保守型投资者关注存年终奖的最佳方式。存款利率下调对偏好存款的投资者不利，银行净息差收窄，存款利率仍将继续下降。主要商业银行已多次调整存款利率，购买存款仍需快速行动。

“一小时就卖完了！” 以前抢大额存单，现在银行这个产品也被疯抢

This week is the earnings report week for major tech giants such as Microsoft. JPMorgan Chase's lowest benchmark forecast for the U.S. stock index will determine the short-term fate of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500. JPMorgan Chase's strategist stated that this week is a crucial moment to determine the overall valuation of the U.S. stock market, especially whether the high valuations of large tech companies are sustainable. The earnings reports of the five tech giants with a market capitalization of over $10 trillion will be the focus of global stock markets and may affect the risk appetite of global stock investors. These tech giants have been leading the trend of the U.S. stock market in 2023 and early 2024, and currently, the U.S. stock market is still reaching new highs.

Tech giants in the US stock market face a major test of their high valuations! It may determine the short-term fate of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500.

Dow Jones and SPDR S&P 500 hit new highs, while Nasdaq rebounds to a two-year high. The United States imposes restrictions on AI training for Chinese companies. Stephen Chow will collaborate with Douyin on the first micro-drama. Pony Ma stated that overseas gaming is Tencent's biggest hope for internationalization, and this year they will fully develop video streaming, live broadcasting, and e-commerce. Tesla's Chairman and Musk's senior associate have formulated a stock selling plan, with a total value exceeding $72 million. Amazon abandons the acquisition of iRobot. Insider sources claim that the new iPad Pro and M3 MacBook Air from Apple have started production.

Breakfast | US stock indexes and tech blue chips hit new highs, "unstoppable", Tesla to spend $500 million to build Dojo.

韩国上市锂公司 Lithium for earth 首尔盘初上涨 21%，成交量为每天盘初均值的七倍。

Investor Gorak suggests considering holding cash and gold as there is an increasing trend of "panic buying" in the financial market. He believes that the rebound in the US stock market and the record high of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 are based on "momentum" rather than hopes for an "soft landing" of the economy. He predicts that Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 may fall to 3200 points in the next economic recession. Gorak points out that investors are starting to relax their value standards and turn to riskier investments, leading to the emergence of panic buying. He believes that the current economic data being focused on does not fully reflect its reference value.

Investors are going crazy! "New Bond King" Gundlach suggests considering holding cash and gold.

美股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，道指下跌 0.02%，标普 500 指数涨 0.04%，纳指涨 0.05%。特斯拉预计全年资本支出超过 100.0 亿美元，市场预估 97.8 亿美元。马斯克考虑从 AMD 处采购人工智能芯片，AMD 开盘跌 0.5%。英伟达涨跌 0.05%，英特尔在上周五收盘大跌近 12% 后，开盘涨 0.3%。iRobt 开盘跌逾 18%，亚马逊同意终止收购该公司的协议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

美股三大指数开盘涨跌不一

The explosive demand for AI has triggered a surge in data center demand. "Real estate tycoon" Blackstone, with its keen insight, has made a forward-looking bet on the "data center" empire, which may become one of the best investments in the company's history.

Betting Big on AI! Blackstone, the "Real Estate Tycoon," and its $25 billion "Data Center" Empire

逆势大幅上涨，部分中小券商业绩同比大幅回升。截至 1 月 29 日，已有近 19 家券商披露了 2023 年业绩预告或业绩快报。其中，多家券商提到了 2023 年的投资业绩同比增加的情况。例如，长城证券预计 2023 年净利润将同比增长 56% 至 66%，主要得益于创新驱动业绩增长和自营投资业务回升。此外，东方证券和光大证券也同样提到了投资业务收入同比增加的情况。这些数据显示了中小券商在 2023 年取得了较好的业绩。

逆势大幅上涨，部分中小券商业绩同比大幅回升

Ma Huateng said that WeChat is currently the strongest platform in terms of daily active users and the entire ecosystem for TENCENT. However, we still need to make up for the lack of e-commerce knowledge over the years. This year, we will focus on the development of video streaming e-commerce. E-commerce and advertising complement each other.

Ma Huateng: Fully developing video streaming, live commerce, and having confidence is currently the most lacking aspect in the overall environment.

华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司总经理聂挺进因个人原因辞职。聂挺进在基金和公募资管领域有 16 年经验，曾在多家机构任职。聂挺进于 2021 年 9 月加入华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司，后担任总经理职务。华泰证券公告称，聂挺进辞职后，董事长崔春将代行总经理职责。

十多年投研老将，辞任券商系资管机构总经理

腾讯公司董事会主席、首席执行官马化腾表示，AI 也是去年一个重点，全行业甚至全世界的重点，我们总算能跟上第一阵列，不能算最领先，但是至少没有太落后，我觉得后面还要结合我们的场景把 AI 混元大模型应用到各个场景中，短期内一两年内我感觉不会有一个纯原生 AI 大的应用，应该还是要结合到我们的所有产品里面效率提升等，我觉得这个是一个很大的机会。

马化腾：腾讯人工智能技术不算最领先，至少没有太落后

腾讯公司董事会主席、首席执行官马化腾表示，微信是腾讯目前日活、整个生态最强壮的平台，但也已经有 12 年的历史了。微信这棵老树如何发新芽，是一个很大的问题。一年前，我说视频号是 “全鹅厂的希望”，经过一年多的发展，的确不负众望，在成长过程中给我们很多惊喜，让我们在过去短视频失利的情况下，重新具备了一个坚实的抓手。最关键的是，我们不是跟在别人身后做一样东西，而是结合自身特点、做熟人社交的短视频。我们用户群体的消费能力很强，但多年来我们缺乏的电商知识还是要补的，所以我们今年能够全力发展的就是视频号直播电商，电商和广告是相辅相成的。

腾讯马化腾：视频号不负众望，全力发展视频号直播电商

据界面新闻，腾讯公司董事会主席、首席执行官马化腾表示，游戏是腾讯的王牌业务，游戏出海其实是腾讯目前出海国际化的最大希望。过去几年，在海外大 IP 游戏公司的手游研发、网络运行运营等方面，公司发挥了一定优势、建立了口碑。腾讯希望在软件和游戏研发方面横向做透、做扎实，而不是在一个纵深角度跟其他游戏公司或硬件厂商为敌，更关键的还是找准自己的主业并聚焦，这样更有胜算。

腾讯马化腾：游戏出海其实是腾讯公司目前国际化的最大希望

核心 PCE 显示潜在通胀已降至 2% 附近，但 12 月核心 CPI 同比仍维持在 3.9% 的高位，与 PCE 的差距进一步扩大。这些通胀指标对指导美联储降息具有重要意义，也对美股产生影响。

“美联储看跌期权” 回归？

Jesse has paid several tuition fees in the early stage, experiencing shrinkages of 61%, 64%, 65%, 100%, and 106% respectively (i.e., liquidation and margin call).

Character | From 50,000 to 6.8 million in two years! How to seize the opportunity with strong stocks?

Tech stocks are mostly up in pre-market trading, with Intel rising over 2%, AMD and Tesla up over 1%, and NVIDIA up nearly 1%. Chinese concept stocks are mixed, with Li Auto and Alibaba rising over 1%, JD.com and NIO-SW seeing gains, while Pinduoduo and XPENG-W are down over 1%.

Pre-market US stocks: Intel and AMD lead the technology sector! BABA-SWR rises, PDD falls.

Will Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound? BABA-SWR and NIO-SW are gaining popularity.

Hot discussion on WSB | KINGSOFT CLOUD cumulative plummeted 96%, heat continues to rise

Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious view on MEITUAN, believing that the stock lacks short-term catalysts, mainly due to recent challenges in the food delivery business, competition concerns with IHT business and Douyin, as well as the unclear profitability of MEITUAN Select; CICC believes that XPENG-W's positive gross margin may not meet market expectations.

Rating Quick Look | Meituan, XPeng-W target prices significantly lowered! Kuaishou-W, Alphabet-C receive positive outlook

苹果宣布在欧盟地区打破 App Store 的垄断现状，允许其他企业在 iOS 系统上建立第三方应用商店。这项改变是为了配合欧盟即将生效的数字市场法案，阻止科技巨头获得不正当的竞争优势。然而，苹果的新规设置了不低的准入门槛和核心技术使用费，使开发者难以获得实惠。这场苹果、开发者与监管部门之间的战争才刚刚打响。

欧盟反垄断「撬开」苹果，结果坑苦了开发者

天风证券认为，2024 年美股走势的核心是宽松预期下的估值扩张，目前对于美股未来表现的主要质疑是估值偏贵。但在货币政策转向后，只要经济没有深度衰退风险，美股理应通过估值扩张上涨。

理解市场 | 今年美股，涨还是跌？

Last Friday's hottest contract: Tesla put options with a same-day expiration and a strike price of $185 traded over 130,000 contracts! Chip stock options were also hot: Nvidia call options with a strike price of $610 traded over 100,000 contracts; AMD put options with a strike price of $177.5 traded nearly 100,000 contracts.

US Stock Options | Tesla's trading volume sharply declines, market shifts from call to put! Intel's stock price plummets, trading volume surges!

Apple is trying to maintain its "walled garden" through a series of strategies, but these strategies seem to be increasingly causing dissatisfaction among regulatory agencies and other stakeholders.

Cracks appear in Apple's "walled garden"

国务院国资委将全面实施 “一企一策” 考核，对中央企业进行市值管理考核，量化评价控股上市公司市场表现，评价企业市值管理工作举措和成效，加强对违规事项的惩戒，引导企业重视内在价值和市场表现。

国务院国资委将全面实施 “一企一策” 考核

港股收盘，恒指收涨 0.78%，科指收涨 0.54%，中字头表现亮眼，中国联通收涨约 2.4%，药明系带动医药板块整体承压，药明康德跌超 10%。

Morgan Stanley believes that out of the expected lithium mine production of approximately 1.48 million tons of LCE in 2024, one-fourth of the lithium production costs exceed 80,000 yuan per ton. Among them, approximately 150,000 tons of LCE have already incurred losses.

Morgan Stanley: Oversupply of lithium mines will intensify, 80,000 yuan will be an important threshold.

最近一周股市表现出冰火两重天，上证综指反弹至 2900 点以上，创业板指继续下跌。文章讨论了股市行业差异以及系统从融资市向投资市转变的原因。预计 2024 年牛市将以政策牛市和结构性牛市为基础，与整个股市游戏规则的转变有关。文章指出，消费板块开始启动是确立本轮政策牛市的信号。弗里德曼的消费函数理论认为，市场预期股票市场上涨时，消费股会受益。因此，在牛市中，消费股会有两波上涨：市场形成共识、消费股涨预期和牛市持续一段时间、消费股涨业绩。疫情放开后的行情也被提及。

关于一轮牛市确立的基本条件

国内首个口服司美格鲁肽片获批上市，预计将增大 GLP-1 类药物市场规模，进一步打开国内减重市场。国投证券指出，诺和诺德的口服司美格鲁肽片借助创新技术解决了多肽类药物口服吸收难题，可提高生物利用度约 100 倍。目前国内已有多家企业布局 GLP-1 药物，其中华东医药和仁会生物的减重适应症已获批上市。礼来和诺和诺德的减重适应症已进入 NDA 阶段。此次上市将给国内减重市场带来重大影响。

国内首个口服司美格鲁肽片获批对市场意味着什么？

「幻兽帕鲁」出圈最重要的原因在于，它让用户们狠狠体验了一把 “资本视角”，很多玩家笑称 “自己是打工人农奴翻身，在游戏里当家做主了”。

10 天狂赚 13 亿的「幻兽帕鲁」凭什么？

Are the current market catalysts sufficient? If not, what can truly lead to a trend reversal instead of just a temporary rebound? Why are technology and small-cap growth stocks benefiting more after the unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut by the Chinese central bank? Should we pay attention to state-owned enterprises?

Understanding the Market | Has the Hong Kong Stock Market Reached a Turning Point?

1 月 29 日，市场传言称香港第一只比特币现货 ETF 已报香港证监会申请，申请机构为嘉实基金。记者向相关人士确认获知，嘉实国际资产管理有限公司确已向香港证监会提交了比特币现货 ETF 的申请。嘉实国际为嘉实基金在香港设立的资管子公司，是香港第一家提交比特币现货 ETF 申请的机构。

嘉实国际申请香港首只比特币现货 ETF

1 月份汽车销售低迷的原因主要有三个方面：首先，12 月份的大促销活动消化了部分需求；其次，很多优惠政策的截止日期设定在 1 月 1 日，导致购车优惠不够吸引消费者；最后，年底观望现象仍然严重，消费者对换车需求、经济状况和职业稳定性持观望态度。这些因素导致了 1 月份汽车消费减缓。

1 月份汽车销售为什么这么低迷？

12 月工业企业利润点评：工业库存小幅回升，服务业 “补库” 率先启动。根据申万宏源的数据，12 月服务业库存指标改善幅度更大，且服务业补库可能快于工业。若服务业库存加快回升，可能成为今年 GDP 增速好于预期的一个重要来源。同时，12 月工业利润增速回落，营收与成本出现恶化。

12 月工业企业利润点评：工业库存小幅回升 服务业 “补库” 率先启动

In the coming week, major US tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon will release their earnings reports one after another. The key performance data of these tech companies will become the focus of attention in the global stock market. Microsoft is one of the most anticipated earnings reports, with analysts predicting a nearly 16% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the second quarter of its 2024 fiscal year. The performance of Microsoft may have an impact on the risk appetite of global stock investors. If the earnings report exceeds expectations, it may boost the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500, indicating that a "full bull market" may be just a matter of time.

Earnings Report Preview | "New Stock King" Microsoft's performance is about to be released! The revenue-generating effect of AI is highly anticipated by all.

交银国际发布研究报告称，将小鹏汽车-W 目标价由 39.3 港元，调低 30.5% 至 27.3 港元，投资评级维持 “沽出”。公司 2024 年前 3 周总销量每月下跌 59%，表现低迷。新车型 MPVX9 将成为 1 季度唯一的销量亮点。小鹏子品牌 MONA 将在 2024 年第三季上市，但其在 15 万级规模和成本控制能力上不如传统车企。交银国际预计自主品牌将以降价刺激销量，其他车企将跟随。

交银国际：维持小鹏汽车-W“沽出” 评级 目标价削 30.5% 至 27.3 港元

2023 年港股回购创新高，回购金额高达 1259.26 亿港元，同比上涨 20%，其中腾讯回购金额占四成比例，回购金额达到 484 亿港元。

港股回购创新高

HTSC released a research report stating that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will continue to promote measures to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and strengthen financing support. The regulatory authorities are gradually implementing the details of financing support for the real estate market, and these policies can boost industry confidence and provide valuation recovery space for the real estate sector. In the next step, the regulatory authorities will accelerate the implementation of policies, hold deployment meetings, require banks to take action as soon as possible, and guide the implementation of management requirements for commercial property loans. At the same time, they will further optimize personal loan policies to support the optimization of down payment ratios, loan interest rates, and other personal loan financial services.

HTSC: Policy boosts market confidence and provides valuation recovery space for the real estate sector.

* 大摩相信华住股价 60 日内将升

香港差饷物业估价署数据显示，去年 12 月本港私人住宅楼价指数报 312.1，环比跌近 1.4%，连跌 8 个月，为自 2017 年 1 月以来新低，2023 年全年累跌 6.8%。中小型单位 (100 平方米以下) 售价指数环比跌 1.4%，全年累跌 6.7%；较大面积单位 (100 平方米或以上) 售价指数环比跌 0.5%，2023 年全年累跌 7%。租金指数方面，去年 12 月私人住宅租金指数升至 187.1，环比升 0.86%，连升 11 个月，2023 年全年累升 6.6%。

香港差估署：去年 12 月楼价指数环比跌 1.4% 2023 年全年累跌 6.8%

大和证券 SMBC 株式会社将药明生物评级上调至买进，目标价 33 港元。

麦格理：上调快手目标价至 61 港元，预计未来毛利率稳定扩张。

* 美银证券升 Alphabet 目标价至 175 美元 上季收入为亮点

* 美银证券升 Alphabet 目标价至 175 美元  上季收入为亮点

* 大摩降美团目标价至 85 元 维持谨慎看法

* 大摩降美团目标价至 85 元  维持谨慎看法

After the liquidation order, how will Evergrande repay its debts? How much debt is likely to be collected by the creditor? What are the main challenges?