高盛和杰富瑞对美国的政治和经济形势发表了观点。高盛认为特朗普在 2024 年大选中获胜可能会提振债券收益率和美元。杰富瑞则对欧元区利率保持中性态度。此外，富国银行警告称美股创历史新高是基于虚假希望，摩根大通预测比特币和 Coinbase 股价可能会下跌。其他机构也对美联储终端利率、澳大利亚减税措施、日元走势等发表了观点。荷兰国际指出风险偏好改善提振了欧元，但涨势是否持续取决于股市。西太平洋银行预计日本央行按兵不动后美/日汇率将升至 150。

每日投行/机构观点梳理

港股内险股、中资券商股、内银股尾盘直线拉升，弘业期货 K) 涨超 12%，光大证券、国泰君安国际涨超 10%，中国平安、中国财险、中国太保涨超 6%，邮储银行、中国人寿、中国人民保险集团涨超 5%，民生银行、农业银行、中信银行涨超 4%。

港股大金融股尾盘直线拉升

Tesla plans to launch a new electric vehicle codenamed "Redwood" in mid-2025, targeting the mass market. This news is expected to boost Tesla's stock price, which has been declining since 2024. Tesla's CEO has been committed to advancing the development of electric vehicles and autonomous taxis. Tesla plans to produce more affordable electric vehicles on the next-generation platform, including an entry-level model priced at $25,000, to compete with cheaper gasoline-powered cars and other low-cost electric vehicles. BYD surpassed Tesla as the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer in the last quarter of 2023. Tesla CEO Tesla has resumed plans to launch a new $25,000 electric vehicle in 2020. Currently, Tesla's cheapest model, the Model 3 sedan, starts at $38,990 in the United States.

Is Tesla's stock price finally getting a boost? It is expected to mass-produce a new model, Redwood, by mid-2025.

央行行长潘功胜表示，明天（1 月 25 日）将下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 个百分点，从 2% 下调到 1.75%，并持续推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降。

恒生指数涨幅扩大至 3%，恒生科技指数涨 3.5%。富时中国 A50 指数涨幅扩大至超 2%。

1 月 24 日，国新办今日举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在回答提问时表示，人民银行将于 2 月 5 日下调存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元；明天将下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 个百分点，并持续推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降。

潘功胜：人民银行将于 2 月 5 日下调存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点

Alibaba's options trading surged to 665,000 contracts, surpassing Nvidia and AMD to become the second largest overnight options trading volume, second only to Tesla. Among them, 85% of the options were bullish, with nearly 60,000 contracts for Alibaba calls with a strike price of $75.

US Stock Options | Market cools down, but BABA-SWR trading volume soars! AMD, Apple calls are in high demand.

Source: US Stock Research Society, Author | Chris Katje, Translation | Wall Street Major Event
Tesla will announce its fourth-quarter financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, January 24th. Prior to the release of this report, the company's performance in the third quarter fell short of expectations, while the fourth-quarter deliveries exceeded analysts' expectations. The following are profit forecasts for the fourth quarter, analysts' comments, and key items of interest to investors.

Profit Forecast: According to forecasts, analysts expect Tesla's fourth-quarter revenue to be $25.547 billion. The company is expected to have earnings per share of $0.74 for the fourth quarter. Tesla reported earnings per share of $1.19 and revenue of $24.318 billion for the fourth quarter. In the recent report for the third quarter, Tesla's revenue and earnings per share fell short of analysts' expectations, at $23.35 billion and $0.66, respectively. Tesla has exceeded or met analysts' expectations for earnings per share in 9 out of the past 10 quarters, and exceeded analysts' expectations for revenue in 7 out of the past 10 quarters.

Previously, production and delivery data for the fourth quarter were announced. Tesla reported deliveries of 484,507 vehicles and production of 494,989 vehicles. This represents a year-on-year increase of 19.55% and 12.57%, respectively.

Earnings Report Preview | Tesla's Profit Margin, Analyst Views, Cybertruck Still in Focus

2024 年车企价格战仍将延续，新能源车企增速承压，需要提振销量。特斯拉降价引发了汽车圈的价格战。雪铁龙 C6 在 2023 年的价格战中降价 9 万元，成为热门车型。特斯拉在过去的一年里对 Model 3 和 Model Y 进行了多次调价，其中降价次数多于涨价次数。特斯拉成为了将价格战玩到极致的企业。价格战仍在继续，对于车企来说，是否还有足够的子弹去打？

2024 年车企价格战：谁是雪铁龙 C6，谁又是比亚迪

"Bill Gross," the "Bond King," warns that overvalued stocks and a severe recession are a real threat, and the United States is caught in a debt spiral. Gross states that the record high of the S&P 500 index is meaningless to him. He believes that stock market valuations have not significantly declined and that the price-to-earnings ratio must be balanced with actual interest rates. He urges investors to remain cautious and allocate funds to lower-risk stocks. Gross urges the Federal Reserve to relax its control over the economy as soon as possible to avoid stifling economic growth and triggering a recession. At the same time, he reminds investors to be mindful of political and military risks.

"Old Bond King" Gross: US stocks appear to be overinflated, and the US economy is facing a severe recession.

小摩再次给币圈 “泼冷水”，摩根大通分析师对 SEC 批准现货以太坊 ETF 并不乐观。摩根大通分析师表示，监管和司法方面的考虑使得批准的可能性不高于 50%。SEC 最近推迟了对富达现货以太坊 ETF 的决定，将最后期限延长至 2024 年 3 月 5 日。摩根大通分析师认为 SEC 对以太坊的分类将在决定现货以太坊 ETF 的命运方面发挥关键作用。SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 公开表示该机构既不批准也不支持比特币，对现货以太坊 ETF 的获批前景产生了负面影响。

小摩再次给币圈 “泼冷水”：现货以太坊 ETF 获批概率不高于 50%

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交银国际发布研究报告，维持快手-W“买入” 评级，上调 2024 年净利润预期 9%。该行认为短视频平台商业化变现仍有提升空间，电商生态完善及供给侧拓展将进一步带动电商 GMV 及相关收入增长，成本/费用优化趋势确定，盈利能力持续释放。快手-W 股价上涨 3.29%，成交量 1931.61 万股，成交额 8.19 亿港元。投行共有 34 家给出买入评级，目标均价为 88.35 港元。东吴证券最新研报也给予快手-W 买入评级。快手-W 港股市值 1850.29 亿港元，排名计算机应用行业第 1。

交银国际：维持快手-W“买入” 评级 费用优化或好于此前预期

Analysis suggests that the close collaboration between Microsoft and OpenAI has propelled the performance of OpenAI models to outshine others in the large-scale model market. In addition, Microsoft's Phi series with smaller parameter scales can further seize the long-tail market of open-source models.

SLM Counterattacks LLM? Microsoft Bets on Smaller, Cheaper "Large Models"

Leading bone repair material company Jiuyuan Gene prepares for Hong Kong IPO: May face challenges in centralized procurement and heparin cycle

据四位知情人士透露，特斯拉已告知供应商，希望在 2025 年年中开始生产一款代号为 “红木 (Redwood)” 的新型大众市场电动汽车。其中两位消息人士将该车型描述为紧凑型跨界车。

消息：特斯拉计划在 2025 年年中生产新型电动汽车

全球最大对冲基金桥水表示 “适度看多” 中国股市，认为当前的估值具有吸引力。桥水的中国私募基金管理部门还表示对中国债券也 “适度看多”，并预计政策将保持宽松以支持经济增长。据悉，桥水去年的 All Weather Plus 策略在不计费用的情况下上涨了 10.8%，债券和大宗商品的投资实现了正增长。桥水在中国的管理资产规模也增长了一倍，达到约 400 亿元人民币。

桥水称 “适度看多” 中国股市

亚市午盘，香港领涨亚股，日本股市下跌。恒生科技指数领涨，阿里巴巴盘中涨幅最大。纳指期货接力隔夜美股走高，MSCI 亚太指数连续五天上涨。日本股市从 1990 年以来高点回落。美元指数持稳，日元领涨，日本国债收益率上涨。油价上涨，美国原油库存大降，中东局势紧张。股市方面，标普 500 指数期货上涨，日经 225 指数下跌，澳大利亚 S&P/ASX 200 指数持平。货币方面，美元基本持平，离岸人民币兑美元跌。加密货币方面，比特币上涨，以太币上涨。债券方面，美国国债收益率持平，日本和澳大利亚国债收益率上涨。大宗商品方面，西德...

亚市午盘：香港领涨亚股 日本股市下跌

Morgan Stanley points out that the spin-off is expected to further unleash business potential, and the recovery of the storage market will drive further improvement in performance. Western Digital has a 28% upside potential.

Is NVIDIA no longer the "chip leader"? Morgan Stanley's TOP1 has become Western Digital

国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽在亚洲金融论坛上表示，金融监管总局将以金融供给侧结构性改革为主线，引导金融机构回归本源、聚焦主业。重点关注科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融和数字金融发展，提升服务实体经济的适配性，为经济稳定发展提供金融支撑。金融监管总局将加强监管，推动金融高质量发展。

李云泽：将以金融供给侧结构性改革为主线，引导金融机构回归本源、聚焦主业

In 2023, QDII funds have shown impressive performance, with the number of newly established funds reaching a new high in nearly 10 years, with a total scale exceeding CNY 478.268 billion. Several fund companies are currently submitting new QDII products for approval. In terms of overseas markets, the US stock market and the Japanese stock market have both seen gains, with Invesco QQQ Trust surging over 13% and the Nikkei 225 index rising.

QDII performance "bumper harvest"! Emerging markets become the focus of layout with an impressive growth of over 66% in 2023.

The Bank of Japan is considering ending its years-long negative interest rate policy, with potential timing for this change in March or April. Key factors that could affect the timing include signals from BOJ policymakers on achieving 2% inflation and the outcome of annual wage negotiations in mid-March. Risks that could delay an exit include uncertainties in overseas growth and weak signs in consumption. After ending negative rates, the BOJ plans to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy and gradually hike short-term rates.

EXPLAINER-When and how would BOJ exit ultra-loose monetary policy?

花旗一位分析师在报告中表示，在 2023 年第四季度强劲反弹之后，随着美联储论调的转变，应预计会出现回调，并将其作为机会进行买入，标普 500 指数的年中目标为 4800 点，年终目标是 5100 点。该分析师表示，2024 年股市表现的关键将是市场扩大，一批领先股的表现明显优于落后股，相较于防御型股票，应该增持周期性股票。

花旗：预计标普 500 指数的年中目标为 4800 点

日本 10 年期国债收益率上行 10bp，日经 225 指数跌幅扩大到 1%。互换市场定价显示，日本央行 4 月加息 25 个基点的概率为 58%，上周结束时为 44%。

日本央行又 “变脸” 了，日本股债双杀

波音 757 飞机在亚特兰大起飞前轮胎脱落，达美航空受到调查。这是波音公司又一次遭遇重大事故，引起了马斯克的震惊。波音 757 是一种双发窄体中远程运输机，由于市场需求减少，波音公司已于 2004 年停止生产该机型。

波音又一机型现重大事故，飞机起跑途中轮胎突然脱落，马斯克表示震惊

摩根大通发布研究报告称，予网易 “增持” 评级，目标价 195 港元。该行重申公司为中国互联网其中一只首选股，相信在 2024 年会继续跑赢同业，而在新游戏推出周期的推动下，料股价在未来 3-6 个月迎来反弹。该行认为，网易拥有领先的游戏开发能力，令其能够在全球市场上持续推出成功的游戏，自 2015 年以来游戏收入实现双位数增长，预计今年超过五个的新游戏，将推动游戏收入同比增长 10%。

金十数据 1 月 24 日讯，网易游戏今日公布了 2024 年网易游戏寒假限玩时间表：小朋友们春节期间可以在 2 月 9 日至 17 日中每天 20-21 时体验游戏，算上整个寒假也只有 16 天。除了寒假限玩时间表，网易游戏表示家长还可使用 “网易未成年人护航平台” 查看、管理孩子的游戏时长和消费，并在游戏内开启 “未成年人模式”，从而进一步管理孩子的游戏行为。

网易游戏发布寒假限玩通知：未成年人春节只能玩 9 小时，整个假期总计 16 小时

Bank of America has included Apple in its "US 1 List" of preferred stocks, replacing Jazz Pharmaceuticals. The bank has upgraded Apple's rating and predicts an increase in its future sales and service revenue. Previously, several institutions had downgraded Apple's rating. This news may have an impact on Apple's stock price.

Contrary to the market, Bank of America once again includes Apple in its top picks for US stocks

国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽在 17 届亚洲金融论坛上表示，内地金融业总体运行稳健、风险可控，将继续强化穿透式监管，提升监管的前瞻性、精准性、有效性和协同性，加快构建完备有效的现代金融监管体系，推动金融高质量发展。中国金融业经受住多次严峻考验，是全球大国中唯一没有发生金融危机的经济体。

李云泽：内地金融业总体运行稳健、风险可控，将继续强化穿透式监管

摩根大通发布研究报告，予网易-S 增持评级，目标价 195 港元。预计在未来 3-6 个月股价将反弹。截至 1 月 23 日收盘，网易-S 报收于 146.2 港元，上涨 6.02%。投行对该股的评级以买入为主，近 90 天内共有 16 家投行给出买入评级，近 90 天的目标均价为 211.09 港元。中金公司给予网易-S 跑赢行业评级，目标价 211 港元。

摩根大通发布研究报告称，予网易-S“增持” 评级，目标价 195 港元

金融监管总局规范新能源车险承保，不得对特定车型 “一刀切” 限制承保。国家金融监督管理总局财险司向各监管局财产保险监管处、各有关财产保险公司下发了一份关于新能源车险承保工作的通知，提出了五点要求。通知要求各财险公司取消不合理的承保限制，不得对特定新能源车型采取不合理的限制措施，并调整对新能源车险设置的不合理考核目标。

金融监管总局规范新能源车险承保，不得对特定车型 “一刀切” 限制承保

The cryptocurrency market has been hit hard, and now it's time to settle the debts. Grayscale's GBTC has transitioned from a closed-end trust to an open-end spot ETF, significantly increasing the circulating supply of Bitcoin and providing an opportunity for FTX, which is leading the way in liquidating bankruptcies. On the other hand, the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange Mt.Gox has recently started repaying Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), further adding to the supply pressure.

Understanding the Market | Why did Bitcoin experience a significant drop after the launch of spot ETFs?

Due to the impact of lower-than-expected quarterly order performance and continued decline in profits, the US residential construction industry index fell sharply by 6% on Tuesday, with the leading residential builder D.R. Horton (DHI) dropping by 9.2%.

Leading company's earnings report falls short of expectations, causing a sharp decline in the "hot sector" of the US stock market

第十七届亚洲金融论坛在中国香港举行。中华人民共和国香港特别行政区行政长官李家超在致辞中表示，目前，中国香港正在计划发行第二批代币化绿色债券，中国香港有能力把债券市场和绿色可持续金融、金融科技相结合。同时金融监管部门也将适当通过监管手段防范相关风险。

李家超：中国香港正在计划发行第二批代币化绿色债券

比特币现货 ETF 获批后价格下跌 20%；摩根大通表示比特币现货 ETF 热情可能退烧；美国比特币现货 ETF 资金净流出 7600 万美元；比特币 ETF 费用战蔓延至欧洲；BitMEX 联合创始人预测比特币支撑位在 3 万至 3.5 万美元之间；ARK Invest 买入比特币现货 ETF 价值 1415 万美元；Bitwise 首席投资官认为最近的加密市场抛售系对 ETF 获批影响过度预期所致；各方对以太坊现货 ETF 获批存在争议；分析师预计 GBTC 的资金流出率将在 20% 至 35% 之间；OKX 将全额补偿异常清算带来的损失；富达比特币 ETF 地址收到 1.53 亿美元比特币；Coinbase 敦促美财政部重新考虑加密货币混合规则。

每日数字货币动态汇总

蚂蚁集团各主要股东彼此独立行使股份表决权且无一致行动关系，不再存在任何直接或间接股东单一或共同控制蚂蚁集团的情形。

蚂蚁集团股东结构调整完成！马云不再担任实控人

KEEP, which was sought after by funds yesterday, rose more than 20% at one point during trading. In early trading today, it rose over 6% again. As of the time of writing, it has risen 3.8% to HKD 6.28, with a turnover of HKD 16.8023 million. In terms of news, Keep recently announced a strategic partnership with OPPO. The cooperation includes deep cooperation in core component research and development, as well as exploration in algorithms, AIGC, and large-scale models, and cooperation in marketing and branding. Both parties stated that they will leverage the professional advantages of Keep and OPPO in their respective fields to promote long-term development and strategic cooperation. Zhitong App pointed out in the article "Keep Joins at the Critical Moment of Squat Jump, Partnering with OPPO to Boost Sports Technology Industry" that Keep, as a leading sports technology company listed in Hong Kong, has not undergone significant changes in its fundamental performance and is still expected to maintain a good growth trend in the future. At the same time, with the company's stock price already adjusted to a relatively low level, and uncertainties such as the support of the company's performance, fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market, and industry volatility being digested, the company may usher in a historic opportunity for a bottom reversal.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | KEEP rises over 6% and reaches strategic cooperation with OPPO to jointly explore sports intelligence.

中国内地经济增长活力足，宏观政策空间大。国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽在亚洲金融论坛上表示，中国内地经济发展底子厚，经济增长活力足，宏观政策空间大。他认为，中国内地经济长期向好，结构优化和改善，高质量发展态势不会改变。同时，金融监管总局将持续强化监管，推动金融高质量发展。

李云泽：中国内地经济增长活力足 宏观政策空间大

科网股早盘延续昨日涨势，带动恒生科技指数再涨超 3%，阿里巴巴-SW 上涨 6.58%，报 72.10 港元；百度集团-SW 上涨 6.40%，报 104.80 港元；快手-W 上涨 5.90%，报 44.85 港元；美团-W 上涨 5.73%，报 70.10 港元。

科网股早盘集体走高 阿里巴巴-SW 及百度集团-SW 均涨超 6%

港股猫眼娱乐涨超 8%，1 月票房已超 20 亿元，元旦档票房刷新纪录。

Apple plans to delay the release of its electric vehicle with limited autonomous driving capabilities until 2028. Apple's car project has experienced multiple delays. This plan is an important attempt by Apple to revive its sales growth. Previously, Apple envisioned a fully autonomous vehicle, but now it is shifting its focus to developing Level 2+ autonomous driving features. This decision may be due to Apple's slowing sales in the smartphone market and the need to find new growth drivers. The codenames for Apple's car project are Titan and T172, which is one of the company's potential major projects.

Apple's "car-making ambition" to "stall"? Intends to lower autonomous driving to L2+ and postpone release to 2028.

港股内房股集体翻红，中梁控股、融创中国、中国金茂、旭辉控股集团、雅居乐集团涨超 5%，绿城中国、华润置地、万科企业涨超 3%。

商汤科技董事长徐立表示，大模型是全球人工智能技术发展的核爆点和新风口，预测到 2030 年我国生成式 AI 产业规模将突破万亿元。目前美国已发展到 GPT-4 阶段，而国内基础大模型距离 GPT-4 还有较大差距。如果不抓紧开展大模型技术前瞻性研究，我国可能在这一领域被美国抛得越来越远，错过生产力变革机会。

商汤董事长谈大模型：再不抓紧开展前瞻研究，可能被美国抛得越来越远

奈飞四季度新增订户 1312 万创历史纪录，远远超过了预期的 891 万，营收、业绩指引也均超预期！华尔街表示：奈飞显然已经赢得了 “流媒体战争”。

理解市场 | 奈飞盘后为何涨超 8%？

港股中国重汽大涨 14%，公司预报去年溢利大增 200%-240%。

* 摩通重申今年内地网游首选网易近期股价回调为入市良机

阿里巴巴－SW 今日 (24 日) 高开 5.99%，报 71.7 元，成交 586.54 万股，涉资 4.17 亿元。有传马云上季一直增持阿里巴巴港股，涉资约 5,000 万美元。另外，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 文件披露，阿里巴巴主席蔡崇信在去年第 4 季扫入 1.51 亿美元阿里 ADR。(mn/u)

阿里巴巴－SW 开市升 6% 据报上季获马云大手增持

US real estate companies are facing pressure, with the residential construction sector index falling by 6%, marking the largest decline since 2022. Quarterly order earnings announced by Horton were lower than expected, prompting plans to lower prices to stimulate buyers. Seaport Research analysts have downgraded the rating of the US residential construction sector, as their predictions for the industry over the past two years have been accurate. Leading real estate company Horton's Q1 profits were lower than expected, with high mortgage rates putting pressure on the real estate industry. For the quarter ending December 31, 2023, Horton's earnings per share declined, revenue increased, sales orders increased, and housing inventory slightly increased.

US real estate companies have reached their peak? "Leading" company's profits decline, and this analyst has made another accurate prediction.

港股开盘，恒指开涨 1.62%，科指开涨 2.77%。阿里巴巴涨约 6%，消息面上，马云、蔡崇信大幅增持阿里巴巴。

Supermicro's stock has risen over 500% in one year, making it a big winner in the AI boom. Founder Liang Jian has become a billionaire, along with Huang Renxun and Su Zifeng, leading the current AI wave as three influential Chinese figures.